Monday, November20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:11PM Monday November 20, 2017 8:36 AM EST (13:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:33AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 338 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Tue night..NE winds 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt or less after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 338 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will migrate across the waters today to move offshore on Tuesday. A weak low pressure system will move near the coast Wednesday, followed by a cold front pushing offshore. Another area of low pressure may move up the coast late week into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside Beach, SC
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location: 33.58, -78.88     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201121
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
621 am est Mon nov 20 2017

High pressure and tranquil weather will control the local
weather through tonight. A coastal trough just off the carolina
coasts and an approaching cold front from the northwest will
combine to produce light rain late Tuesday and Tuesday night
ending with the cold frontal passage early Wednesday. Weak high
pressure will follow on Wednesday. Low pressure with origins
over the eastern gulf of mexico may bring unsettled weather to
the area in the form of rain late Wednesday night through
thanksgiving day. The low will accelerate northeast away from
the region by Friday with modest high pressure slated for the
upcoming weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Monday... Quiet and cool early this morning as large
area of high pressure centered near the ms vly ridges eastward.

Beneath this expanding ridge, light north winds continue
locally driving weak CAA and temps dropping into the 30s in
many locations, with a few isolated readings near freezing. A
frost advisory remains in effect for much of the inland zones
not already done with their growing season, and have added areas
of frost to these zones. Temps will remain a bit warmer than
last night so frost should not be as widespread as Sunday
morning, but many locations will likely wake up to frost around

Thereafter, a sunny but cool day is forecast as the
aforementioned high swings eastward to become overhead this
evening. Weak CAA will shut off, but a very shallow cold dome
topped by a subsidence inversion above 900mb will keep temps
below 60 for highs today in most areas, with a few low 60s
possible in the far southern zones. This high will shift
offshore in response to a trough digging into the gulf of
mexico, and this will cause surface winds to shift to an onshore
direction tonight. The forecast begins to diverge at this point
due to the development of a coastal trough, with the NAM the
fastest and strongest with the sharpening of this feature. For
now have sided with the slower less robust GFS ecm cmc and keep
the area dry with increasing cirrus but little in the way of low
cloud cover through Tuesday morning. Light easterly winds and
increasing sky cover will keep mins a bit warmer tonight, around
40 at the coast and mid 30s well inland. The forecast profiles
are quite dry inland so frost may have difficulty forming, but
local frost tool did produce some patchy frost well inland so
have left a mention in the forecast where temps fall below 36.

Do not anticipate the need for a frost advisory Monday night

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 300 am Monday... Tuesday is shaping up to be an "ok"
during the daytime with some clouds increasing with mild moist
air overriding the cool dome of air across the ilm cwa. The
dividing line is an inverted sfc trof that develops and lies
across the atlantic waters parallel to the ilm CWA coast. Models
to some degree push this sfc inverted trof onshore and inland.

However, i'm not entirely bought on the push well inland. I
could see the trof moving just onshore but this is not the
"normal" setup for the aka coastal trof to push well inland let
alone onshore. As a result, will indicate the temp fcst with
regard to just an onshore push. As for pcpn, have also knocked
down pops to a degree with a decent gradient from low chance
well inland to good chance or possibly likely along the
immediate coast and adjacent atl waters. The overall instigator
for pcpn across the fa is mid-level S W trofs that push off the
mexican and southern texas coasts respectively and into the
gulf of mexico where it picks up moisture before crossing
central florida during Tuesday. The S ws then accelerate
northeastward Tuesday night along the coastal trof and by
Wednesday daybreak they are off CAPE hatteras. This will supply
additional dynamics other than the weak overrunning pcpn
already in place by the time it's affects commence. With
stratiform type rains fcst west of the coastal trof, QPF will be
on the low side with the "hiest"occurring in the vicinity and
east of the coastal trof where isolated heavier showers with
possible thunder to occur. Have lowered temps for Tue from the
previous fcst due to betting on the coastal trof not pushing
well inland.

For Wednesday... A cold front will push across 1st thing in the
morning, helping to drive what's left of clouds and pcpn further
offshore. The front will stall well offshore but extend back
inland across florida. We then do it all over again, with
overrunning type clouds late Wed thru Wed night with stratiform
rains breaking out late in this time period, with the hier pops
along the immediate coast and southernmost portions. Atl
waters. Other than weak embedded southern stream S W trofs, a
rather decent northern stream 5h S W trof dives southeastward
from the upper midwest and by early thu, models indicate it may
close off over ga. This may draw back westward the stalled
offshore front but still remaining offshore. A pop gradient will
again occur across the area late Wed night into thu, with
lowest well inland and hiest along and east of the ilm cwa
coast. Enhancement to the QPF will come from weak embedded mid-
level southern stream S W trofs engaged with the stalled
offshore front. The main QPF enhancement and hier pops will
come from the northern stream S W trof and possible sfc low
development on the stalled front offshore late in this period.

For Wednesday temps, stayed on the lower side of MOS guidance
due to clouds and pcpn threat via the gfs, whereas the much
drier european model this time frame has Wed MAX temps
approaching 70 across portions of the fa.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Saturday... Lingering rain is possible early
Wednesday as an upper trough moves out and a cold front moves
out to sea. Another short wave trough could spawn low pressure
development along the old front off the southeast u.S. Coast.

This will bring another chance of rain to the area Wednesday
night into Friday, though the exact details of this scenario are
still in doubt. Dry weather is expected for the remainder of
the long term but light showers are possible with another
frontal passage and vigorous upper trough on Sunday.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals of mid 60s wed
before falling back into the mid to upper 50s for Thu and fri.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Sat and Sun with highs
in lower 60s. Mins temperatures Wednesday night will fall to
the upper 30s to lower 40s with higher numbers SE and along the
immediate coast. Temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 are
expected Thu night and Friday night before rebounding to the mid
to upper 40s Saturday night.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 12z...VFR conditions will continue today as high pressure
approaches from the west. The high will move overhead this
evening, then off the coast late tonight. A minority of the
computer models we review show the potential for low stratus
clouds (bases 1000-2000 feet agl) to roll in off the ocean after
06z Tuesday morning. This appears too fast, and we will continue
to forecast only high cirrus clouds through 12z Tuesday.

Extended outlook... MVFR conditions may develop in low clouds
and light rain Tuesday through Wednesday morning, then MVFR to
ifr conditions are possible Thursday night into Friday in low
clouds, rain, and fog.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Monday... High pressure currently across the ms
vly will shift eastward today, causing a slow decrease in wind
speeds along with veering in direction. Current winds across
the waters are from the north around 10 kts, still 15-20 kts
near frying pan shoals, but will ease through the morning as the
gradient begins to relax thanks to the approach of the high
pressure. Wind direction will become NE this aftn, then e, and
finally SE tonight, with speeds primarily around 5-10 kts
regardless of direction. A few 4 ft seas still lingering out
there this morning will deamplify to around 2 ft all waters this
evening and tonight, with a 4-5 sec wind wave following the
mean wind the primary wave group.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 am Monday... Will see a roller coaster ride with
respect to the wind direction fcst Tue into early wed. This a
result of an inverted sfc trof aka coastal front, that develops
parallel to the ilm CWA coastline and tries to push partially
onshore. The sfc pg thru early Wed will be on the somewhat
relaxed side with 10 to occasional 15 kt wind speeds possible.

A cold front pushes off the coast and stalls well offshore,
again parallel to the ilm CWA coast during wed. This front is
pulled back toward the west Wed night but remains east of the
local waters. With the sfc pg tightening especially late wed
and Wed night, NE winds 10-15 kt will increase to 15 to 20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt possible Wed night as a sfc low develops
along the stalled front offshore. Significant seas Tue into tue
night will run 2 to 3 ft with possible 4 footers. By late wed
and Wed night, sig. Seas will build to 3 to 5 ft thruout with 6
footers remaining possible. Atleast scec thresholds will be met
with SCA conditions still a possibility Wed night.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... N to NE winds INVOF 15 kt are expected
through much of the period though a peak of 15 to 20 kt is
possible Thu night into Friday. On the open waters, seas of 3 to
5 feet are expected through the period. Depending on low
pressure development off the SE u.S. Coast, conditions in this
period could be hazardous and it is possible that winds and seas
could exceed thresholds for small craft advisories, 25 kt winds
and or seas of 6 ft, during this period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Frost advisory until 9 am est this morning for scz017-023-024-

Nc... Frost advisory until 9 am est this morning for ncz099.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Jdw
short term... Dch
long term... Ran
aviation... Tra

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi48 min 1023.5 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 23 mi111 min NNW 2.9 36°F 1023 hPa33°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 27 mi88 min NNE 12 G 14 45°F 61°F1022.9 hPa
41108 47 mi36 min 62°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi40 minN 610.00 miFair40°F32°F73%1024.8 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC18 mi43 minN 510.00 miFair39°F30°F73%1024.1 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC21 mi61 minN 07.00 miFair32°F32°F100%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW15NW11
1 day agoSE8S8S11SE10SE8S8S9S9S10S10SW9S8SW10SW10
2 days agoNE8NE12NE9N645SE5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Mon -- 02:00 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:20 AM EST     5.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:39 PM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:05 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:31 PM EST     4.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Springmaid Pier, Atlantic Ocean, South Carolina
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Springmaid Pier
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Mon -- 02:03 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:19 AM EST     5.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:39 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:05 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:28 PM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.