Saturday, July22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Stuckey, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:24PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:57 AM EDT (10:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:30AMMoonset 6:49PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 358 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Today..SW winds 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft...then 3 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 358 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build across the waters and persist through the weekend. A cool front will drop southeastward Monday and stall just inland and north of the local waters Tuesday thru Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stuckey, SC
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location: 33.6, -79.43     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221039
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
639 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Hot and humid conditions will peak today before beginning to
moderate with more typical summertime heat expected next week.

A cold front, approaching from the north, should push into the
area mid week and then remain in close proximity through late
week. The risk for thunderstorms with heavy rain will return
next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Saturday... Although the expansive mid level ridge over
much of the central and eastern CONUS will begin weakening today the
overall impact of its weakening will be minimal. Forecast soundings
still show a good amount of mid-level dry air and subsidence.

Isolated cumulus development along the sea breeze is likely but what
does develop will have limited vertical depth. Slightly deeper
convection will develop west of the area, along the piedmont trough
but even here little more than an isolated storm is likely given the
unfavorable environment. Will carry slight chc pop for inland
locations but the bulk, if not all, of the region will remain dry.

Bigger story today will once again be the heat with both temps and
dew points running a little higher than yesterday. All of the major
guidance agrees on 850 temps approaching 20c this afternoon which
translates to highs in the upper 90s. The sea breeze will make temps
closer to the coast tricky, likely keeping highs in the low to mid
90s. Although low level winds had a southwest component on Fri the
winds at 850 were more westerly. Today the 850 winds will back to
southwest, helping increase low level moisture in the area. Moisture
increase will not be enough to generate a lot of cloud cover or
storms but will lead to higher heat index values. Latest forecast
has all counties in the forecast area peaking between 105-109,
except the immediate coast. It appears even most of the coastal
zones will be close to the 105 mark so will add all zones within a
heat advisory for today. Inland areas will be close to 110 and a few
areas may exceed this thresholds but it currently appears that the
bulk of these areas will remain at or below 109, and not require
issuance of an excessive heat warning. Boundary layer winds and
increased low level rh will keep lows well above climo overnight.

Isolated marine convection may develop but the majority of this
activity will remain offshore.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 300 am Saturday... The forecast area will be in between
two areas of high pressure. One area of hot high pressure will
retrograde westward as the bermuda high remains to our e. This
will allow an upper trough to slowly dig across the eastern
conus. At the surface, the piedmont trough will remain
prominent through Mon while a cold front slowly slips down the
east coast, likely lying just to our N Tue morning. This
scenario will allow for still humid, but slightly lower high
temps, especially by mon. Clouds will be more prevalent Mon as
compared to sun. The risk for thunderstorms will be increasing
and should be highest Mon and Mon night as precipitable water
values climb to near 2.25 inches. At this time, will show small
pops Sun with pops trending higher and perhaps becoming numerous
by Mon mon night. High moisture content should allow for very
heavy rainfall amounts where thunderstorms are able to train.

Temps on Sun will still be in the lower to mid 90s which will
produce heat index values at or above 105 degrees across most
areas and so a heat advisory may be required that day. On mon,
highs will be in the lower 90s. Heat index values on Mon are
not expected to exceed 105 degrees, but may still top 100. Lows
will be in the mid and upper 70s although if thunderstorms
become widespread enough a cold pool may drop readings into the
lower 70s.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... A shortwave trough moving through new
england on Monday night, and a large upper low developing
across southern quebec will help put a dent in the heat.

Falling upper level heights associated with these systems will
shift the core of the upper ridge (and its associated heat)
farther west into texas and new mexico. Don't expect a cleansing
frontal passage by stretch, (06z GFS ensemble 850 mb temps
don't fall below climatology next week) but at least we should
lose the 100+ heat indices for a few days.

Both the GFS and ECMWF show a cold front moving into northern
north carolina on Tuesday. The GFS then sinks the boundary a
little farther south by Wednesday morning. There are enough gfs
ensemble members showing the front making it into south carolina
that i'm leaning toward the GFS in this case. This front should
enhance the coverage of t-storms Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and i've placed my highest forecast pops (50-60 percent) of the
extended period during this period.

With a progressive upper level pattern to our north, surface
high pressure will push off new england and out into the
western atlantic Thursday and Friday, probably with enough
southerly wind developing over the carolinas to lift the front
or its remnants back to the north.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 12z... Patchy ifr stratus and MVFR br will burn off by 12z.

Vfr conditions are expected. However, there is potential for
ifr stratus and some fog to redevelop late tonight. The
seabreeze will again develop with ssw winds this afternoon and
early eve gusting to around 20 kt at kcre and kmyr. No organized
thunderstorms during the period and a remote pop up shower or
thunderstorm during the heating of the day is too low a
probability for inclusion in the tafs at this time.

Extended outlook... Possible ifr in patchy stratus fog near
sunrise sun. Brief MVFR ifr possible in showers and thunderstorms
sun night through wed.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Saturday... Southwest flow around west side of bermuda
high will continue through the period. Gradient along the coast will
be a little tighter than on Fri and onshore flow will be a bit
stronger near the coast. Gusts in excess of 20 kt in the afternoon
and early evening are likely. Seas around 3 ft today will build to 3
to 4 ft later today and remain there overnight. Isolated 5 ft will
be possible in the vicinity of frying pan shoals.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 300 am Saturday... Small craft should exercise caution
headlines may be required for at least a portion of the time.

A piedmont trough on Sun will allow for a tightening pressure
gradient across the waters. As upper trough slowly digs across
the eastern conus, a cold front will slip progressively south,
likely lying just N of the waters Tue morning. The approach of
this front will keep the gradient rather tight as well. The wind
direction will be SW through the period. Wind speeds will be as
high as around 20 kt Sun afternoon and eve and again mon
afternoon. Seas will be 4 to 5 ft through the period.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Bermuda high pressure well offshore will
lose its influence on our weather by the middle of next week as
low pressure in the canadian maritime provinces pushes a cold
front down the u.S. East coast. This front is shown by the
latest GFS and ECMWF models to make it down to near hatteras on
Tuesday. Models diverge slightly on Wednesday as the ECMWF keeps
the front stalled to our north and the GFS brings it down to
the myrtle beach vicinity Wednesday morning. Regardless of which
solution is correct, the frisky southwest winds of the weekend
should diminish by Tuesday within the weaker pressure gradient
near the front. Unfortunately thunderstorm potential should also
increase as the front approaches.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm edt this evening
for scz017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.

Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm edt this evening
for ncz087-096-099-105>110.

Marine... None.


near term... Iii
short term... Rjd
long term... Tra
aviation... Rjd

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 22 mi72 min WSW 1.9 77°F 1016 hPa76°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 28 mi39 min 1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC21 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1016.3 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC23 mi82 minSSW 37.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1015.9 hPa
Kingstree Williamsburg Regional Airport, SC24 mi62 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist72°F71°F100%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmW4W7SW8SW6S5S6S7S7S9S9S9SW7SW5SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW5W6W5W4SW3CalmSE7S8S9S6S9S7S5SW3SW3CalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmSW4
2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmSW3W3NW3E4S5SE5----------------------CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:53 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:44 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Mt. Pleasant Plantation, Black River, South Carolina
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Mt. Pleasant Plantation
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Sat -- 12:56 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:44 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:22 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.