Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 4:14 AM   Moonset 5:01 PM

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FXUS64 KBMX 051701 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1201 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

This afternoon, southerly flow will bring moisture and warm air to the area. Isolated diurnal convection is expected across the entire state. A few thunderstorms could be momentarily strong with instabilities between 1500 and 2000 j/kg, and a weak wind profile aloft. Anything that does form could produce high rainfall rates with PW values around the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Highs today will be in up to 5-7 degrees above normal.

This evening, a weak low will approach from the east and move to the north and northeast across northern MS. Activity associated with this low is expected to move towards Alabama, but weaken as it reaches the state line. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expected with this system passing. The main coverage is going to be across the northern half of the state, closer to the system as it moves to the northeast. The southern half of the state could see isolated showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm, though the greater instability and forcing will be across the northern half of the state.

A weak mid level jet will move through overnight, allowing for the wind profile to increase in speed, though instabilities will be decreasing after sunset tonight. Will maintain that a few isolated storms in the northern half of the state could be strong with the forcing present. PW values will remain high with high rainfall rates possible. By early morning Monday, before sunrise, most activity should move east. With plenty of low level moisture, there could be fog in several areas, especially in the south and west where the rain will end earlier in the night, and the clouds are expected to become more broken. In areas of the north and east, overcast skies are expected to remain through much of the night, limiting fog development. Will have to keep an eye on how quickly/slowly the rain moves east to determine coverage of any fog that develops.

Monday, upper levels take on a more westerly direction with PW values decreasing from around 1.6 to around 1.2 or 1.3 inches, which is around the 75th percentile. Isolated to scattered diurnal convection is expected through the early afternoon into the evening across all of Central AL. A few CAMs are showing increased instabilities, closer to around 2500 j/kg in the western half of the state , though the wind profile still appears weak. All activity should weaken with sunset. High temperatures on Monday will be several degrees above normal.

24

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will be in place during the coming week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will run each day through early Friday morning, as a late season cold front sweeps through Central Alabama. Convection across the northwestern counties Tuesday and Wednesday may be strong and will need to be monitored for any isolated severe potential in the form of damaging wind and hail.

Meanwhile, strong southerly surface flow will bring some of the warmest days so far this year. Winds may gust as high as 15-20 mph at times Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. High temperatures will soar into the upper 80s, perhaps even lows 90s across the southern counties, Tuesday through Thursday.

We are beginning to monitor the Thursday evening timeframe for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms associated with an MCS- like setup moving west to east across the area. This, in advance of the aforementioned cold front, may pose a damaging wind and hail threat, owing to fairly steep lapse rates around 7.5 C/km and bulk shear values of 50-55 kts. However, the better forcing will be removed to the north of Alabama, so will need to further evaluate the potential over the next few forecast cycles.

12

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the state this afternoon. Due to uncertainty in timing and coverage, have left VCSH in for now and will update if convection appears to impact any TAF site. Overnight, a low pressure will bring more scattered activity, mainly to all sites but KMGM and KTOI through the early morning Monday. Plenty of low level moisture could keep clouds at MVFR overnight. Depending on timing and amount of rainfall overnight, KMGM and KTOI might see fog development.
Confidence was low so left mention out of TAF for now.

24

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers and storms are possible today, Monday, and Tuesday. Rain amounts could be locally heavy where thunderstorms track, on the order of around one inch. With increasing moisture, minimum RH values will be above 40-45 percent each afternoon. 20- foot winds should average less than 10 mph from the south to southwest, though gusts to around 20 mph will be possible at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 86 65 86 65 / 30 60 40 30 Anniston 86 66 86 66 / 30 50 40 20 Birmingham 88 68 86 68 / 30 50 40 20 Tuscaloosa 88 68 86 68 / 40 50 40 20 Calera 87 68 85 67 / 30 50 40 20 Auburn 85 69 85 67 / 40 30 40 20 Montgomery 88 69 89 67 / 30 20 40 10 Troy 87 67 89 67 / 30 20 40 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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