Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 8:28 AM   Moonset 11:49 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS64 KBMX 111929 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 229 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

High pressure will move across the southern states today and tonight with prevailing northerly flow bringing cool and dry air to the state. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below normal this time of year with highs today in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s. By Sunday morning, the high will be weakening and moving east of the area with flow returning to out of the south and south west. Moisture and warmer air will will return to the state with high clouds increasing through late Sunday. Highs on Sunday are expected to be near normal and a couple of degrees warmer than today in the low 80s.

24

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

A rather active period of weather will occur during the upcoming week. An upper level warm front will lift northward across Alabama Sunday night. A west to east band of showers will develop between I-85 and I-65 late Sunday night and lift northward. Rainfall amounts will remain light initially due to drier air below 850mb.
Scattered to numerous showers will develop on Monday as broad scale lift overspreads the area. A few storms possible across south Alabama as a surface based warm front lifts northward. A stronger low level jet develops Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Models differ considerably on timing and placement of heavier rainfall during the Monday/Tuesday time frame. The NAM/GFS models develop a cluster of convection Monday night across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana and track it across south Alabama Tuesday morning, while the ECMWF/Canadian models have an impulse moving across south Alabama Monday morning with another impulse on Tuesday closer to the Gulf Coast. If the system on Monday verifies, this may keep better instability closer to the coast and the GFS/NAM solution may be overdone for Tuesday. For this reason will not highlight any severe or flooding threat at this time, but certainly some potential exists for active storms. There should be break in the rain on Wednesday before another system impacts Alabama in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

58/rose

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

High pressure and VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A weak mid level jet will move through this afternoon with a few gusting winds.

24

FIRE WEATHER

Rain free conditions continue through the weekend, as drier air remains over the area. Tonight, max RH values will be above 85 percent. Light and variable 20ft winds are expected Sunday as high pressure moves across the area. Min RH values Sunday afternoon will range from 30 to 35 percent northeast counties to 40 to 45 southwest counties. Rain will move into area Sunday night and Monday.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 51 80 56 71 / 0 10 30 80 Anniston 54 81 59 73 / 0 10 30 80 Birmingham 58 82 61 72 / 0 10 50 80 Tuscaloosa 59 82 62 76 / 0 10 60 80 Calera 58 82 61 73 / 0 10 50 80 Auburn 59 80 62 76 / 0 10 20 80 Montgomery 57 82 63 76 / 0 10 30 80 Troy 57 82 62 78 / 0 10 20 80

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Birmingham, AL,