Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:54 PM   Moonset 3:02 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS64 KFWD 200039 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 739 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/

Our stagnant weather pattern will continue as mid-level ridging dominates the pattern early this week. South flow was slightly stronger today, which drew higher moisture air north and nudged dew points into the upper 60s this afternoon. Most locations peaked with temperatures in the low 90s and heat index values in the mid 90s. Since the pattern isn't going to change much, more of the same is expected tomorrow. Although another early-morning stratus intrusion is expected, but stronger winds should preclude fog development on the eastern periphery of the cloud deck. The winds tomorrow afternoon should also be a little stronger than today with most locations experiencing 12-18 mph sustained winds with gusts near 25 mph in the afternoon.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/Issued 239 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ /Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near the Red River Tuesday night.

Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid- level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours.

Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the 90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety this upcoming weekend.

Prater

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

VFR and south flow around 15 kts will continue this evening. Gulf stratus should develop around 06Z in the Hill Country and move into western Central Texas afterward. Expect an IFR to low MVFR stratus deck to move over ACT near sunrise, lifting and scattering as it moves east by mid-morning. Stronger winds should preclude fog or substantial visibility restrictions. Gusty south flow and VFR will prevail at all terminals tomorrow.

Bonnette


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 91 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 5 10 Waco 71 89 74 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 69 89 71 87 74 / 0 0 0 5 10 Denton 73 90 74 89 74 / 0 0 0 5 10 McKinney 72 89 74 87 75 / 0 0 0 5 10 Dallas 74 92 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 Terrell 70 91 72 87 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 71 90 74 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Temple 70 89 73 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 71 92 74 90 73 / 0 0 0 10 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Shreveport, LA,