Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Socastee, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:14PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 2:54 PM EST (19:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 948 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain late this morning, then rain likely this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers with isolated tstms.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 948 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Unsettled marine conditions will persist through Thursday as another complex storm system moves up the coast. This system will be followed by drier and cooler weather as high pressure builds in for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Socastee, SC
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location: 33.69, -79.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 141504
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1004 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, later today through
early Thursday, will be followed by drier and cooler weather
into the weekend. A cold front will cross the coast Monday
night, bringing a surge of cooler air next Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 10 am Wednesday... Surface analysis shows weak wave off the
fl west coast that will eventually become the low that passes
off the coast. Until this happens, late today, widespread cloud
cover and patches of drizzle and light rain, especially inland,
will be the order of the day. Total rainfall will be limited
due to a lack of forcing lift, but the lack of Sun and
continuation of low level northeast flow will keep the region
cool and damp. Temperatures will struggle to rise more than a
degree or so from current readings with inland areas starting to
cool during the afternoon hours as low level northerly flow
increases due to tightening gradient. Not a lot of changes for
the morning update, mainly to tweak precip chances down a bit
through early afternoon and adjust highs based on current temps.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 300 am Wednesday... A closed mid upper-level low will lift
across the ohio river valley Thursday. Deep moisture from the
gulf of mexico will surge northward across the carolinas ahead
of this feature. Upper-level diffluence will enhance lift
primarily on the west side of the surface front to produce
widespread rainfall through at least midday Thursday. Current
qpf projections are for areal average of 1-1.5" inches of rain
over most of the forecast area daytime Thursday. The quasi-
stationary frontal boundary will waver along the coast as a
surface low rides up the coastline Thursday morning, and
depending on exact timing and location, portions of coastal
counties may experience a predawn surge in temps before the low
moves north and winds become northwest. SPC continues a marginal
risk of severe weather over far eastern areas Thursday morning
for possible damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Rain will
taper off from southwest to northeast Thursday afternoon, with
high temperatures ranging from around 50 inland to the mid upr
60s at the beaches. Again, depending on exact location of the
front Thursday morning, the high temperatures along the coast
may be realized in the early morning. The atmospheric column
will dry out rather abruptly Thursday afternoon above 850 mb,
but lingering low-level moisture is expected to result in some
low cloudiness hanging on well into Thursday night, before
beginning to clear west to east before dawn Friday.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Zonal flow aloft will usher surface high
pressure from the gulf coast states into the area Saturday.

Sunday into Monday, the high will slide off to the northeast as
a trough digs across the great lakes and into the mid-atlantic
region. High temps by Sunday and Monday should reach the low-mid
60s before a cooler airmass arrives Monday night, setting the
stage for highs in the mid-upper 50s for Tuesday. See no
significant chance for precipitation during the period.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 12z... MVFR conditions to prevail today at all terminals except
for ilm, which is currentlyVFR and forecasted to remain so until
tonight. Ifr ceilings at lbt should lift to MVFR over the next few hours.

Developing low pressure system in the mississippi valley will move
northeast and bring rain into the area tonight into tomorrow, with
heavy rain possible at times. Expect ceilings to lower back down to
ifr overnight as precipitation becomes more widespread and steady.

Winds strong from north-northeast around 10 kts. Expect to remain
northeasterly around 10 kts with gusts around 20 kts across the area
into tomorrow morning.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr continuing through thurs as another
low pressure system lifts across the southeast through mid
week, leaving unsettled weather. Drier,VFR conditions Friday
into the weekend.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 10 am Wednesday... Winds 20 to 25 kt across the waters
this morning will approach gale for this evening as low
pressure moves across northern fl and passes off the southeast
coast. Seas running 4 to 7 ft will approach 10 ft this evening.

Only minor changes needed to coastal waters forecast for the
morning update.

Winds and seas now increasing quickly
across the waters with 41013 reporting 23 knots with five foot
seas. This will be the story for the near term as the northeast
flow only increases further to a range of 25-30 knots. With
frequent gusts of at least 34 kt especially this evening, went
ahead and hoisted a gale warning. Significant seas will increase
from the current 4-6 feet to a healthy 6-8 feet by early
Thursday.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... Surface low pressure slides up through
the area Thursday morning, with south east winds early in the
day becoming out of the west by late aftn Thursday night.

Although seas should drop off to below 6 ft by this point, winds
with frequent gusts to 25 kt will continue through early fri
morning, so the small craft advisory will remain in effect.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... Weakening NW winds Friday will become
more northerly Saturday and Sunday, and the pressure gradient
will weaken as the high settles just north of the waters.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 4 am est Thursday for amz250-252-254-256.

Near term... Iii
short term... Mas crm
long term... Crm
aviation... Vao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 25 mi69 min NE 9.9 55°F 1025 hPa48°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi46 min NNE 16 G 21 54°F 66°F1025.7 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC4 mi58 minNNE 1210.00 miOvercast54°F45°F72%1026.3 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC11 mi79 minNE 105.00 miOvercast with Haze52°F42°F72%1026.4 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi61 minNNE 11 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F44°F72%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6NW6NW6NW5NW5N7N10N8N6N10N13N8N10N10N12NE12
G17
N10N14NE11NE14NE12N12N10N12
1 day agoN9N8N6CalmSE15
G21
SE13S12S12S10--S11S8SW5NW6NW7CalmCalmW5W5NW5NW3NW3NW5W4
2 days agoN9N9N8NE6NE7NE6NE8NE7N7N9NE6N9N8N8N9N9N8N10NE11N8NE10N7NW6N10

Tide / Current Tables for Socastee Bridge, ICWW, South Carolina
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Socastee Bridge
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Wed -- 03:27 AM EST     1.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:54 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:02 PM EST     2.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:43 PM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.61.71.81.71.51.31.10.90.70.70.91.31.71.9221.81.61.41.10.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:30 AM EST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:17 PM EST     4.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:22 PM EST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.83.12.31.61.21.21.62.23.13.94.54.84.74.23.32.31.51.11.21.62.333.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.