Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Socastee, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:24PM Saturday July 22, 2017 10:44 PM EDT (02:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:28AMMoonset 6:48PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 929 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 6 am edt Sunday through late Sunday night...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with few gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with few gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft...subsiding to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 929 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure centered offshore from the southeast u.s. Coast will persist through the weekend and into early next week. A trof of low pressure will lie across the western carolinas thru the weekend. Between the 2 features a tightened sfc pressure gradient will exist tonight thru early Monday resulting in gusty sw winds at 15 to 20 kt. A cold front will drop southeastward late Mon and stall across the eastern carolinas just inland from the coast.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Socastee, SC
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location: 33.69, -79.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 230202
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1002 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
Hot and humid conditions will continue thru Sunday with heat
advisories already in place. Look for some moderation early
next week due to a cool front dropping to and stalling across
portions of the region. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
increase Sun thru Mon time period. A cool front, will approach
from the north and push into the area and dissipate during the
mid week period of next week. And yet, another cool front will
follow and reach the local area late next week.

Near term through Sunday
As of 915 pm Saturday... No thunderstorm activity expected
for the evening and overnight period. With thunderstorm
activity having occurred farther west than Friday, the
associated convective debris cloudiness will likely remain west
of the ilm CWA tonight. As a result, will indicate mainly clear
skies. The sfc pg will remain tightened and will combine with a
healthy 20 to 25 kt southwesterly low level jet to keep sfc sw
winds active overnight in the 5 to 9 mph speeds inland and
around 10 mph closer to the coast. Thus, fog will not be an
issue and at this time will hold off with any low level stratus.

Min temps will stay somewhat elevated, with mid to upper 70s,
highest across the coastal areas due to the influence of warm
atlantic waters where ssts are running in the low to mid 80s.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..

As of 230 pm Saturday... Sprawling mid-level subtropical ridge
will continue from the central plains to the carolinas tonight
into Sunday along with bermuda high pressure off the southeast
u.S. Coast. These features will combine to maintain the
heat humidity across the forecast area during Sunday. The heat
index during Sunday will be above heat advisory thresholds once
again and a new advisory will need to be issued. Meanwhile,
overnight temperatures will continue to be above normal as warm
southwest-south flow persists. Regarding pops, plan to maintain
the highest percentages across the far inland zones as isolated
to widely scattered convection is possible along the weak
trough. Would expect any of these storms to dissipate with the
loss of heating this evening. Showers and thunderstorms could
form farther east across the area during Sunday with a more
active sea breeze, and of course the far inland trough serving
as lifting mechanisms.

Lastly, tides associated with a new moon will likely allow
water levels to slightly surpass minor flood stage at downtown
wilmington. The high tide this evening and Sunday evening would
be the highest of the tides. Plan to issue a coastal flood
advisory to account for this.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... This will be a transitional
period to more active weather with increased clouds,
shwr TSTM activity and relatively cooler, back around normal
temps.

The broad northern stream trough begins to dig down into
the carolinas between the weakness between two ridges and the
large ridge over the central CONUS pushes east behind it.

At the same time expect to maintain a rich feed of warm and
moist air around atlantic ridge in the low levels. The piedmont
trough will get pushed east and will provide a focal point for
convective activity as well as enhanced upper level support to
produce increased chc of convection along sea breeze and
localized boundaries. The models also continue to show a piece
of energy riding up from the south through mon. Therefore,
expect chance of shwrs tstms increasing through the period.

Models show pcp water values reaching up near 2.5 inches
especially Mon aftn into early evening.

Although temps will begin to trend downwards, may see some
spots still making it just above 105 on Mon aftn in places
with breaks of sun, but overall expect temps down closer to 90
with increased potential for clouds and convection. Heat index
values will be between 100 and 105 many places. Overnight lows
will continue in the mid 70s in a warm and humid air mass.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... The upper air pattern will transition
to a cooler pattern for the eastern u.S. Next week. The upper
ridge over texas and oklahoma on Tuesday will retrograde to the
four corners region by Saturday. A downstream trough will
develop along the east coast, enhanced by a shortwave that
almost cuts off across the carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday, and
a pair of progressive shortwaves that move through new england
Tuesday and Friday.

At the surface, low pressure should take shape across western
south carolina late Tuesday, sinking down to coastal south
carolina by Wednesday night. This will drag a weak cold front
down from the north. While yesterday's ECMWF kept the front
across central north carolina, today's run is in agreement with
the GFS that the front will sink all the way down into the
charleston, sc area. With low- level convergence focused along
the front and cooler upper-air conditions with the disturbance
aloft, expect thunderstorms to become fairly widespread Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday. There is the potential we'll see
1-3 inches of rain area-wide.

As the upper disturbance kicks offshore Thursday afternoon
and drier mid-level air bleeds in from the west, the surface
front should dissipate. Friday should be the warmest day in the
extended period with highs popping back into the lower 90s and
heat indices over 100 degrees again. By Saturday, the GFS and
ecmwf are in surprisingly good agreement that a stronger cold
front will dive southward and into area, with another
enhancement in the potential of thunderstorms.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
As of 00z...VFR conditions expected thru the night and thru 00z
mon. The only exception will be possible MVFR conditions between
18z Sun thru 00z Mon from isolated to widely scattered
convection. Will indicate with either vcts or place a prob30
group where convection fcst is slightly better than isolated,
ie. Along the sea breeze boundary.

With the piedmont trof further inland across the western
carolinas, convective debris clouds will likely not reach the
local terminals given flow aloft. Any leftover CU field will
dissipate quickly by or just after sunset.

Ssw winds will likely stay active all night, only dropping back
to SW at 4 to 7 kt late this evening and overnight. SW winds
will pick back up by mid to late morning at 10-15 kt. The sea
breeze will again be active with winds at the local terminals
backing to ssw around 15 kt with gusts to 20+ kt by early to mid
afternoon sun.

Extended outlook... Possible ifr from patchy stratus fog near
sunrise mon. Brief MVFR ifr possible in showers and
thunderstorms Mon thru thu.

Marine
Near term through Sunday ...

as of 915 pm Saturday... Raised a small craft exercise caution
for all local waters beginning at 6 am Sunday and ending at
6 am Monday.

A tightened sfc pg will exist across the local waters tonight
thru Sunday and is due to the local waters sandwiched between
the modest bermuda high centered offshore from the SE u.S. Coast
and the sfc trof of low pressure lying across the western
carolinas. In addition, a rather healthy nocturnal SW 20 to 25
kt low level jet will exist tonight into Sun morning. As a
result, SW winds will run 15 to 20 kt tonight thru Sunday and
into Sunday night. Some gusts up to 25 kt will become possible
during Sun into Sun night. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft
initially and build to 3 to 5 ft either late tonight or during
sun morning and likely hold at these heights thru Sun night.

Initially tonight, the SE 7 to 9 second period ground swell will
dominate the significant seas early on. Wind driven waves at 3
to 5 second periods will eventually become the more dominant
factor within the seas spectrum late tonight thru sun.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 230 pm Saturday... S to SW fetch will continue through the
near term period with bermuda high pressure and inland trough
in place. The pressure gradient between these features will
enhance the flow, especially each afternoon and evening. Choppy
seas are expected each afternoon and evening as well with seas
in the 3 to 5 ft range, otherwise 2 to 4 ft late overnight into
the morning.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Still looks like precautionary
headlines may be needed late Sun into early Mon and possibly
late Mon again as winds increase to 15 to 20 kt winds and seas
reach 3 to 5 ft as gradient tightens between inland trough to
the west and high pressure to the east. The afternoon sea
breeze will add to the flow and will keep gusty winds and choppy
seas near shore Sun eve and Mon afternoon to early evening.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Bermuda high pressure will exit the
scene on Tuesday as a cold front drops southward from the mid-
atlantic states. Models are in increasingly good agreement this
front will make it into the area late Tuesday night, with 6-12
hours of light northeast winds expected across the coastal
waters as this boundary stalls somewhere in the charleston, sc
vicinity. Unfortunately this front will bring increasing
thunderstorm chances, some of which may produce heavy rainfall
and gusty winds Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

The front will become increasingly ill-defined on Wednesday, and by
Thursday afternoon should wash out as southwesterly winds increase
ahead of a stronger front that should affect the area next
weekend.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Sunday for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.

Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Sunday for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... Dch srp
short term... Rgz
long term... Tra
aviation... Dch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi44 min 1013.7 hPa (+0.8)
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 25 mi59 min SW 9.9 82°F 1014 hPa76°F
SSBN7 30 mi104 min 3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi36 min WSW 14 G 19 81°F 78°F1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC4 mi57 minSW 810.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1014.6 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC11 mi49 minSSW 47.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1014.6 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi51 minSW 1510.00 miFair81°F75°F85%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SW6SW6SW4SW4SW4SW5CalmSW5SW6SW8------S12S11--S14S15S16
G21
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1 day agoSW6SW6W4SW4SW3W3W3W3SW4SW5W6--W54S11S14S12S16S14S18
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2 days ago--CalmNW3W4W3NW4CalmNW5NW5N5NW10NW6W45S10S10S10S11S10S13S10S11S9SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Socastee Bridge, South Carolina
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Socastee Bridge
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Sat -- 05:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:16 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:57 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:20 PM EDT     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:29 PM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.11.610.4-0-0.3-0.10.61.422.22.11.81.30.70.1-0.4-0.7-0.60.21.32.22.7

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach
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Sat -- 01:14 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM EDT     5.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:14 PM EDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:32 PM EDT     7.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.3-0.10.92.33.95.15.65.34.32.81.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.62.44.366.976.24.73

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.