Thursday, February22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Socastee, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 6:08PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:39 PM EST (22:39 UTC) Moonrise 11:05AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 358 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers. Patchy fog.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft, building to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 358 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored offshore, sustaining S and sw winds through the period. Each afternoon will feature gustier winds near-shore, due to the sea breeze. Patchy dense sea fog is possible through Saturday morning. A weak cold front will cross the coast Monday, bringing moderate ne winds Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Socastee, SC
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location: 33.69, -79.01     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 222032
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
332 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Strong high pressure aloft north of the bahamas, will bring
unseasonable warmth in the days ahead, until a cold front
arrives Monday. The front will bring a chance of rain, and
temperatures closer to normal early next week. A warming trend
is expected next Wednesday and Thursday, as a low pressure
system approaches from the west.

Near term through Friday
As of 332 pm Thursday... A mammoth, bahamian dome of anomalous
warmth is setting off record maximum temperatures again today.

Ilm hit 81 a bit ago, handily obliterating 78 set in 2003, and
this encompasses record keeping since 4 1 1874. Morning stratus
delayed warming at flo, but trends honing-in on a record of 80
there, established 28 years ago. Cre has tied a max-temp record
of 75 set last in 2007. Ocean-chilled onshore flow has leveled
off the temperature at cre at 74, so may have to settle for a
tie here.

The weather pattern is nearly unchanged tonight and Friday, the
differences subtle, such as, the center of the offshore surface
high shifts slightly sw, moisture and SW wind flow above 850 mb
increases a little as the upper ridge, is faintly dented from
the nw, and local inshore water temperatures may be a degree or
two warmer. All these differences however don't appear crucial
enough, to change the potential for another day of record
breaking warmth in late february 2018 again Friday, where
record maximums include, ilm 80 in 1975, cre 74 in 2017, and
flo 83 in 1975.

There were wide shreds of sea fog inshore this morning, and
each morning as ssts become a little warmer, we are seeing just
a bit less sea fog. But this is gradual and the pattern remains
highly similar, so persistence wins out, and will carry marine
fog again tonight and early Friday, impacting the coastal zones.

Based on visible satellite, dissolving diurnal cumulus, will
set the stage for good chance of radiational fog overnight

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 332 pm Thursday... The mid level ridge that has been
dominating conditions this week will get suppressed to the south
during this period setting the stage for some changes next
week. The center of the surface high will remain more or less in
the same position but weaken somewhat. This being said, weather
conditions will remain essentially unchanged. One small change
will be the slight chance for convective showers mostly to areas
west of the coast Saturday as the mid levels become a little
more conducive. Certainly don't expect deep convection and even
thunder is a stretch. Overall temperature forecast remains on
track for highs in the upper 70s to possibly over 80 inland with
lows in the 60s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 332 pm Thursday... Surface and mid-level ridging weaken
sun as they become flatter and sink south. Stacked low tracking
across the western great lakes will drag a cold front into the
area, but the front is initially moisture starved and lacks
dynamics. Front moves into the area late Sun before ending up
parallel to the flow aloft. The front will be stalled in the
area Sun night but precip chances seem slim at best.

Temperatures ahead of the front Sun will be on the order of 20
degrees above normal with lows Sun night in the low 60s, right
around highs typical for late feb. On Mon a series of
shortwaves, emerging from the base of the 5h trough over the
southwest, move along the stalled boundary. Deep southwest flow
helps spread moisture over the southeast while the waves aid
dynamics. Anticipate an increase in precipitation in the area as
the waves move overhead. Confidence on timing is on the low
side as there is still some disagreement between the GFS ecmwf
solutions, but the slower ECMWF might be the way to go given the
presence of a mid-level ridge. Cloud cover and precip will keep
temperatures cooler than previous days but both highs and lows
will remain above climo.

Surface high builds over the southeast Tue into Wed as flow aloft
becomes progressive at the top of a 5h ridge over the gulf of
mexico. Quiet period is short lived as the flat 5h flow moves the
remains of a stalled front into the area, which is then lifted north
as a warm front Wed into thu. Subtle amplification of the mid-level
pattern late in the period will push above normal temps during the
midweek period to well above normal for the end of the period with
potential for convection late Thu or Thu night as a cold front moves
into or across the area.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z... Persistent pattern continues. Look for scattered
cumulus this afternoon. A few cells could produce a sprinkle,
but that is about it. Light winds tonight with mostly clear
skies. Fog will once again form around 08-09z, heaviest around
11z. Friday, becomingVFR by 14-15z, with light southeast flow.

Increasing cloud at the end of the forecast period.

Extended outlook... Morning ifr br possible through Sat am.

Showers and MVFR conditions possible Sunday through Monday,
drying Tuesday.

Near term through Friday ...

as of 332 pm Thursday... Steady as she goes, with high pressure
centered offshore, provides a light to moderate southerly wind
flow across the 0-20 nm waters. Seas will be comprised of waves
from the SE around 3 feet every 8-9 seconds, with a light south
chop. Fog is of concern again tonight, and visibilities could be
reduced in areas. A dense fog advisory for the waters cannot be
ruled out entirely late tonight and early Friday.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night ...

as of 332 pm Thursday... A south to southwest flow of ten knots
or less will continue across the waters through about midday
Saturday. The gradient will increase slowly from that point on
to increase winds to 15-20 knots through Sunday morning. This
will increase the seas from the 2-3 feet which will have
persisted for days to 3-5 feet by Sunday morning.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 332 pm Thursday... Bermuda high remains off the coast sun
with southwest flow increasing as cold front approaches from the
northwest. Pinched gradient increases winds to 15 to 20 kt sun
and Sun night before the arrival of the front drops speeds
closer to 10 kt. Direction veers from southwest Sun night to
north-northwest by Mon morning. Surface high builds in from the
west Mon into tue, then shifts overhead Tue afternoon. Northeast
surge Mon night will peak around 20 kt close to midnight but
then the gradient starts to weaken as the high moves closer.

Northeast flow starts to wind down after sunrise Tue with winds
slowly veering to easterly and dropping to 10 kt or less as the
period ends. Seas 3 to 5 ft Sun and Sun night drop to 2 to 4 ft
mon. Northeast surge Mon night into Tue will push seas back to 3
to 5 ft for much of Tue before decreasing winds allow seas to
fall to 2 to 3 ft Tue night.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ilm
near term... Mjc
short term... Shk
long term... Iii
aviation... 43

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi51 min 1033.2 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 25 mi114 min SSE 8.9 74°F 1030 hPa63°F
SSBN7 30 mi117 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi91 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 58°F1030.1 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC4 mi43 minS 1110.00 miFair71°F61°F71%1030.3 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC11 mi44 minSSE 75.00 miFair with Haze75°F60°F61%1029.5 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi46 minS 610.00 miFair70°F61°F73%1030 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS7S9S7S7S8S6S8S8S7S8S7S5S6S7S4S6S7S7S8S11S9S11S10S11
1 day agoS8S8S9S9S6S4SE4S6SE4SE4S4SE6SE5SE6CalmS4SE6SE7S10SE8S9S8S9S9
2 days agoCalmE3CalmSE4SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE3--S7S8S9S9S8S9S9S8

Tide / Current Tables for Socastee Bridge, South Carolina
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Socastee Bridge
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Thu -- 03:18 AM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:08 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:48 PM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:26 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach
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Thu -- 05:58 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:20 PM EST     4.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:17 PM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.