Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 12:41 AM   Moonset 10:17 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 742 Pm Pdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S to se late. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.Mon - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Mon night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Tue night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.

PZZ600 742 Pm Pdt Sun Apr 28 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1030 mb high was centered 800 nm west of point conception. A 1008 mb thermal low was located in western arizona. Strong to gale force nw winds and dangerous choppy seas will affect the outer waters for much of the time into the middle of the week, frequently spreading into the northern inner waters and the western portion of the santa barbara channel.

FXUS66 KLOX 290639 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1139 PM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
28/737 PM.

Mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures will prevail across the region through this week, with just some coastal low clouds and fog possible at times night and morning hours early in the week and again late in the week. Gusty west to north winds will prevail over the mountains and deserts at least through Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...28/735 PM.

Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies across the forecast area this evening, except patches of low clouds forming across the Central Coast. At upper levels, a northwest flow pattern will persist through Tuesday. This in combination with northerly offshore pressure gradients near the surface will continue to bring gusty northwest to north winds across portions of the forecast area through at least Tuesday. The wind advisory was extended until 3 pm Tuesday for the mountains, Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills. For southwest Santa Barbara county, the wind advisory remains in effect through 3 pm Monday, but could be extended. These areas should generally see wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph, except locally up to 55 mph across the I-5 corridor and western Antelope Valley foothills. As of 7 pm, already seeing some wind gusts of 48 mph at Gaviota and 46 mph at Refugio.

The persistent strong northwest flow pattern across the outer coastal waters will continue to generate a weak eddy circulation the next few nights. As a result, there is increasing potential (60-70% chance) for low clouds to develop during the late night and morning hours across the LA county coast, with a small chance (20-30%) of reaching the Ventura county coast. Latest ACARS data still showing a weak inversion developing across the LA Basin, so may be difficult for a solid stratus field to develop overnight.
Latest HRRR probabilistic guidance also trending towards low clouds returning to coastal LA county overnight and again Monday night.

Weak upper level ridging moved over Southern California today, bringing a warming and drying trend away from the coast. Little change in heights is expected Monday into Tuesday, but boundary layer temperatures continue to edge upward. As a result, could see a few more degrees of warming across interior next couple of days, with warmest valley and desert areas expected to climb into the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...28/157 PM.

The EC and GFS mean ensembles and deterministic are in generally good agreement Thu thru Sat with broad but generally weak upper level troffiness over the forecast area. By Sun, the deterministic models diverge quite a bit with the GFS forecasting a significant for early May storm system affecting the region with rain and high elevation mtn snow, while the EC has dry weather with rising H5 heights over the region. The GFS mean ensembles bring a 10%-20% chance of measurable rain to the area Sun, as only 4 out of 30 ensemble members show rain moving into the area at that time. For now we will go with a dry forecast for day 7.

High pressure is fcst to move into NV on Thu morning and will set up offshore flow from both the N and E. A low end Santa Ana wind event will develop and keep any low clouds well offshore. Mostly clear skies are then expected to continue across the forecast area Thu night thru Sat, except for some night and morning low clouds and fog along the Central Coast Fri night into Sat morning.
Increasing clouds are possible by Sun, and there may be some low clouds and fog along the coast into the adjacent vlys Sat night into Sun morning.

With the offshore flow Thu and even some into Fri, temps are expected to be warmest for the week, with inland coast, vlys and lower mtns expected to top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. A smattering of upper 80s is possible on Thu for the warmest vlys.
It will turn cooler next weekend, with highs 2-6 deg below normal for many areas by Sun.

AVIATION
29/0638Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top of 2400 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in TAF package, except for KLAX (30 percent of low MVFR cigs 13Z-17Z), KLGB (40 percent chc of no cigs) and KSMX (25 percent chc of IFR cigs 12Z-16Z).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN012 conds 13Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
28/725 PM.

A very long period of gale force winds is expected to continue thru at least Tue night for the outer waters. SCA conds are expected Wed thru Thu, with a 30% chance of gales persisting into Wed evening.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely thru Tue night, especially in the afternoon/eve hours. There is a 50% chance of SCA conds during the afternoon/eve hours Wed/Thu. Seas are expected to be near SCA levels during the periods of weaker winds. There is a 25% chance of gale force winds during the afternoon/eve hours Mon into Tue.

In the SBA Channel, SCA level W-NW winds are expected across western portions during the afternoon thru late night hours thru Wed. Winds will likely remain below SCA levels for eastern portions of the channel through the period.

In the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level W to NW winds across northwestern portions, mainly from Anacapa Island to Malibu during the late afternoon thru late evening hours thru Tue.

Widespread strong to gale force winds will keep dangerous sea conditions across much of the coastal waters (particularly the outer waters) thru the middle of the week, with short-period, steep, and choppy waves. There may be dangerous breaking waves near west-facing harbors. Mariners should plan accordingly.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 377-378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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