Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Forest, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:13PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 9:54 AM PDT (16:54 UTC) Moonrise 5:49AMMoonset 6:00PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 915 Am Pdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 6 seconds and S 3 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds and S 3 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds and S 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu night..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Elsewhere, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Patchy drizzle after midnight.
Fri..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 20 kt becoming W 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds, building to 3 to 5 ft at 17 seconds in the afternoon. S swell 2 ft. Patchy drizzle in the morning.
Fri night..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Elsewhere, sw winds 10 to 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 17 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 915 Am Pdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z...or 9 am pdt...a 1022 mb high was located 700 nm west of san francisco and a 1011 mb thermal low was over se california with a trough of low pressure along the southern ca coast.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Forest, CA
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location: 33.71, -117.7     debug


Area Discussion for - San Diego, CA
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Fxus66 ksgx 181546
afdsgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service san diego ca
846 am pdt Wed oct 18 2017

Synopsis
A deepening trough over the west will bring a cooling trend and a
deepening marine layer through Friday. Expect night and morning
marine layer clouds over the coast and western valleys tonight and
Thursday morning and then over the coast, valleys and coastal
slopes with possible drizzle Thursday night and Friday morning.

Strong and gusty west winds also likely in the mountains and
deserts Thursday and Friday. Santa ana winds and a building strong
ridge of high pressure will bring significant warming and drying
to the region Saturday through Monday. Hot conditions possible all
the way to the coast Sunday and Monday, with weather almost as hot
on Tuesday except at the coast where some cooling may occur.

Discussion For extreme southwestern california including orange...

san diego... Western riverside and southwestern san bernardino
counties...

a weakening upper level short-wave trough moving through san
bernardino county is noted on the morning water vapor satellite
imagery, bringing some mid and high level clouds and not much
else. Models have continued to back off on the instability,
moisture and lift associated with this trough, so we are no longer
expecting any elevated showers thunderstorms in our forecast area
today. Humidity observations at the coast indicate dew points in
the 50s 60s, which shows that the marine layer has finally
returned. The 12z miramar sounding shows a surface based marine
layer inversion and a moist layer from around 700 mb to 400 mb.

Pressure gradients continue to trend onshore this morning, with
the san diego to thermal gradient up to 3.4 mb onshore, while 24
hours ago it was only 1.3 mb onshore. With the return of onshore
flow and large scale trough deepening over the pacific northwest,
expect today to be the start of a cooling trend for southern
california (although highs today will still be several degrees
above normal). Local WRF shows that marine layer stratus fog will
likely develop tonight in the coast and western valleys, with
help from a coastal eddy.

The cooling trend will continue through Friday as the trough
continues to deepen and move inland, with possibly enough lift and
moisture for some drizzle and or light showers over and west of
the coastal slopes Friday morning. Expect highs 5-10 degrees
below normal by Friday. Onshore flow will strengthen as well, with
onshore pressure gradients forecast to reach around 10 mb from san
diego to las vegas on Friday, so expect west winds gusting 35-45
mph with local gusts to 50 mph in the mountains and deserts
Thursday and Friday. The marine layer will continue to deepen as
well (up to 4000-4500 ft msl), with stratus filling the coastal
basin and likely moving into the passes and coastal slopes
Thursday night Friday morning and again Friday night before
offshore winds clear clouds out from the north Saturday morning.

On Saturday, surface high pressure over the great basin will build
in the wake of the trough that moves over that area. This will
create offshore pressure gradients at around 7 mb from san diego
to tonopah, resulting in weak santa ana winds that day. A building
ridge from the southwest, in addition to the santa ana winds, will
result in significant warming that day in the coast and valleys,
as well as clearing out the marine layer. The ridge will will
continue to build over the region Sunday through Monday, becoming
anomalously strong by Monday with 500 mb heights reaching 597 dm
according to the ECMWF and canadian models (gfs is weaker at
around 595 dm). Although they do not look strong at the moment
(offshore pressure gradients from san diego to tonopah increasing
to 10 mb with 850 mb winds of only 10-15 kt), the santa ana winds
will continue as well, bringing hot weather all the way to the
coast. The ECMWF also shows 850 mb temperatures reaching 25 deg c
on Monday, which translates to 103+ degree surface temperatures
west of the mountains. Once again, the GFS isn't as warm, showing
850 mb temperatures around 23-24 deg c. Although we start to trend
back onshore on Tuesday (which means it should be cooler at the
coast that day), the ridge could be almost as strong which means
that inland areas may be almost as hot as they were on Monday, and
in the case of the mountains and deserts they may be even hotter.

Aviation
181545z... Sct clouds above 15000 ft will continue today, then mostly
decrease tonight.

Near the coast, stratus will likely return this evening and continue
until Thursday morning. Bases will likely be somewhere between 500
and 1000 ft msl, though cig height and timing are somewhat low
confidence. There is a chance of fog with visibilities below 3 miles
over higher coastal terrain late tonight and early Thursday.

Marine
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday. Winds will
increase to 20-25 kt in the outer coastal waters late Thursday night
and Friday, decreasing by Saturday.

Beaches
A south-southwest swell from 200 degrees from 3-4 ft 16-17 seconds
will continue today. This will produce 3-6 ft surf with sets to 7 ft
over orange county and northern san diego county. Highest surf will
be on southwest facing beaches. Strong rip and longshore currents
will accompany the elevated surf. Swell and surf will lower Thursday
but some surf to 6 ft with strong rip currents will continue. The
beach hazard statement continues for this return until 5 pm
Thursday.

Fire weather
Increasingly cool and more humid today through Friday as a trough
moves in over the west. Gusty westerly onshore winds in mountains
and deserts Thursday and Friday, with gusts 30-40 mph and local
50 mph.

Another round of possibly moderate strength santa ana winds
likely Saturday through at least Monday, with day-time humidity
falling down to at or below 10 percent Sunday and Monday (with
very poor overnight recoveries) along with hot conditions and
gusty northeast winds (15-25 mph gusting 35-45 mph). This would
likely result in critical fire weather conditions through and
below the mountain passes and into the coastal slopes and
foothills Sunday through Monday, and possibly into Tuesday as
well.

Skywarn
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Sgx watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement through Thursday afternoon for orange
county coastal areas-san diego county coastal areas.

Pz... None.

Public fire weather... Harrison
aviation marine... Maxwell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRJC1 26 mi54 min ENE 6 G 7
PFXC1 27 mi54 min E 6 G 8 72°F
46256 27 mi62 min 66°F5 ft
46253 27 mi54 min 69°F4 ft
PSXC1 28 mi54 min E 4.1 G 6
PFDC1 29 mi54 min NE 7 G 8
BAXC1 29 mi54 min E 5.1 G 6
AGXC1 29 mi54 min NE 8 G 8.9 69°F 1014.3 hPa (+1.4)
PXAC1 30 mi54 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 30 mi54 min 67°F1014.3 hPa (+1.2)
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 33 mi54 min 68°F4 ft
46242 - Camp Pendleton Nearshore, CA (043) 37 mi86 min 67°F4 ft
46224 - Oceanside Offshore, CA (045) 39 mi54 min 69°F4 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 47 mi54 min SSW 1 G 1.9 70°F 67°F1014.3 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Los Angeles Pier J, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John Wayne-Orange County Airport, CA9 mi61 minE 410.00 miA Few Clouds72°F62°F71%1014 hPa
Corona Airport, CA14 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair68°F46°F47%1014.9 hPa
Chino, Chino Airport, CA18 mi61 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F46°F41%1014.6 hPa
Los Alamitos Army Airfield, CA19 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F57°F80%1013.8 hPa
Fullerton, Fullerton Municipal Airport, CA19 mi61 minN 08.00 miFair72°F61°F68%1014 hPa
Riverside Municipal Airport, CA21 mi61 minNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F42°F32%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from SNA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm3S7W8SW7W5W4S8SW9SW6S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW35E4
1 day agoCalmSW34S6SW8W6SW7W4SW4SW3S4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
2 days agoCalmSW3S7SW5SW6SW8SW8SW63S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Newport Beach, Newport Bay Entrance, Corona del Mar, California (sub)
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Newport Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:43 AM PDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM PDT     5.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:15 PM PDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:20 PM PDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.40.60.5123.34.55.45.75.44.53.21.90.80.40.51.22.43.64.554.94.3

Tide / Current Tables for Balboa Pier, Newport Beach, California
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Balboa Pier
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:49 AM PDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM PDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:21 PM PDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:16 PM PDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.40.60.40.91.93.24.45.35.65.24.33.11.90.90.40.51.22.33.54.44.94.84.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for San Diego, CA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.