Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rolling Hills Estates, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:19PM Monday October 15, 2018 3:43 AM PDT (10:43 UTC) Moonrise 1:10PMMoonset 11:30PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 245 Am Pdt Mon Oct 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..From point mugu to santa Monica and S of palos verdes, ne winds 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 35 kt becoming ne 10 to 20 kt late. Elsewhere, ne winds 15 to 25 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. SW swell 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue..From point mugu to santa Monica, N winds 20 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and sw 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and sw 2 ft.
PZZ600 245 Am Pdt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 2 am pdt, a 1012 mb low was located along the coast between Monterey and eureka with a 1032 mb high over idaho. Gusty offshore winds and associated wind waves will will affect portions of the coastal waters south of point conception today and Tuesday. Local gale force gusts will affect the inner coastal waters S of ventura.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rolling Hills Estates, CA
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location: 33.72, -118.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 150645
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1145 pm pdt Sun oct 14 2018

Synopsis 14 1033 pm.

An offshore flow with gusty santa ana winds will be strongest on
Monday but continue to be elevated through Tuesday. Conditions
across the region will be warm and dry with above normal
temperatures through the week.

Short term (sun-wed) 14 839 pm.

Strong damaging santa ana winds with very critical red flag
fire weather conditions expected across southwest california
late tonight into Monday...

late tonight into Monday, we have the three main components we
look for in a strong santa ana wind event which are strong
offshore pressure gradients (with lax-daggett projected to reach
-7.5 mb on Monday morning), strong upper level wind support (50 to
60 knots winds between 850 and 950 mb level), and cold air
advection. As a result, confidence is high for a strong and
fairly widespread santa ana event. As of 8 pm, current lax-
daggett gradient is at -1 mb, with the offshore gradient quickly
accelerating overnight as strong surface high pressure builds
in over nevada. A rather sharp east-west oriented upper level
trough is forecast to drop southward into southeast california
overnight, leading to the increased upper level wind support
on the back side of this system across our area. By late
Monday morning into afternoon, a closed low develops across
the colorado river valley, which is a very favorable location
for a strong santa ana wind event for our region. Model cross
sections show a significant deepening of the upper level
wind support with strong subsidence over 20,000 feet above
the surface between 15z and 21z on Monday. This type of
model cross section indicative of strong mountain wave wind
potential, where damaging winds in the mountains could locally
surface into some of the valleys and foothills.

High winds warnings in effect for the la ventura county mountains
where damaging wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph will be common, with
isolated gusts as high as 75 mph in favored locations. For coastal
and valley areas, wind advisories in effect where wind gusts between
40 and 55 mph will be common. However as mentioned before, isolated
damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph will be possible in some of the favored
foothill areas due to the strong upper level wind support and subsidence,
resulting in potential upgrades to warnings in some of the valley zones.

The strong santa ana winds will likely bring significant impacts to the
region, including downed trees and powerlines as well as power outages
and blowing dust. The combination of strong santa ana winds, very low
humidities (into single digits), warm temperatures, and dry fuels will
bring very critical red flag fire weather conditions to much of la and
ventura counties extending into interior portions of slo and sba counties.

See fire discussion below for more details.

*** from previous discussion ***
in wind-sheltered areas and the interior valleys, such as the
central coast and the santa ynez and ojai valleys, the antelope
valley and across eastern san luis obispo county, overnight low
temperatures will be quite chilly. Low clouds probably only
returning to the santa barbara central coast this evening.

Gradients look only half as strong on Tuesday and Wednesday, but
offshore flow remains and a warm and dry air mass will stay in
place into the late week. Advisory-level winds could linger into
Wednesday. Temperatures will be about five degrees above normal in
the areas affected by the santa ana on Monday and Tuesday but drop
to near normal by Wednesday.

Long term (thu-sun) 14 143 pm.

Winds should subside Thursday and Friday. Breezy to locally windy
conditions could remain in favored locales and especially below
passes and canyons. The air mass will modify some, so it will not
be as warm during the day. Overnight lows in the wind-sheltered
and interior valleys will not be as cool either.

Model solutions diverge for the weekend. Ec ensemble has
very little spread next Saturday indicating it has either locked
on the the right solution or is underdispersive. Checking the
modtrend tool for the GFS is similarly unhelpful with nothing
showing the model questioning its solution over the last 10 runs.

Gfs solutions are more aggressive, producing solutions that could
provide enough northeast wind support for another round of gusty
offshore winds. ECMWF solutions less dramatic, holding onto an
offshore flow pattern early then transitioning it back onshore
over the weekend. Until there is some kind of signal pointing to a
particular solution am continuing with the GFS for consistency and
is seems more in keeping with climatology.

Aviation 15 0644z.

At 0550 at klax there was no marine layer nor any inversion.

Overall, high confidence in cavu conds for the next 48 hours.

Main story will be the Monday's strong offshore flow which will
bring significant and widespread llws possible across la ventura
counties between 12z and 22z. Strong mountain wave activity is
likely after 12z.

Klax... High confidence in cavu taf. High confidence in llws and
turbulence issues 12z-22z. There is a 30 percent chc that east
winds will remain under 12kt.

Kbur... High confidence in cavu taf. High confidence in llws and
turbulence issues 11z-23z. There is a 30 percent chance of 35 kt
gusts 15z-22z.

Marine 14 906 pm.

For the outer waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.

For pzz670 673, winds and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory (sca) levels through Friday although there is a 30%
chance of SCA level winds Tuesday afternoon evening. For pzz676,
high confidence in SCA level northeast winds late tonight and
Monday with a 30% chance of SCA level northeast winds Monday night
and Tuesday.

For the inner waters north of point sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below
sca levels through Friday.

For the inner waters south of point conception, high confidence in
current forecast. SCA level northeast winds are expected tonight
and Monday from ventura southward with a 40% chance of gale force
gusts. For Monday night and Tuesday, there is a 60% chance for
another round of SCA level northeast winds. Boaters should be
aware of rough seas especially in and around east facing harbors
(including avalon), especially Monday. Avalon harbor is forecasted
to see wind northeast winds gusting to between 20 and 25 knots on
Monday with wind waves 2 to 4 feet.

Fire weather 14 913 pm.

High confidence forecast in very critical red flag fire weather
conditions developing with season's first strong santa ana wind
event later tonight through Tuesday. Northeast winds have already
begun over the mountains and antelope valley this afternoon and
evening with offshore pressure trends developing. Gusty santa ana
winds will form in the mountains then spread to the valleys and
coasts overnight and just prior to sunrise on Monday. A very dry
airmass over the great basin will rapidly push downslope into
western valleys and coastal sections of los angeles and ventura
counties late tonight. Although recent rainfall has wetted fuels,
wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph by Monday morning will quickly dry out
fuels across los angeles and ventura counties. Widespread minimum
humidities between 4 and 12 percent are likely Monday and Tuesday
with very poor overnight recoveries in the foothills, mountains,
and wind prone areas. Offshore winds will diminish some late
Monday afternoon, but another surge of wind regenerates Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Gusts will be about 10-20 mph weaker
on Tuesday as compared to Monday. There is a chance that critical
conditions will persist through Wednesday in the mountains and
some valleys.

In addition, the mountains of santa barbara and san luis obispo
counties as well as the foothills of the cuyama valley have been
included in the red flag warning from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening. These areas will not see winds as strong and
mainly in the 15-25 mph range, but single digit humidities and no
significant rainfall in recent days will create critical fire
weather conditions.

This is a dangerous fire weather situation. The public needs to
use extreme caution with any potential fire ignition sources. Wind
speeds of this magnitude may cause tree damage and knock down
power lines. Be prepared for power outages and be ready to
evacuate if you live in the urban-wildland interface. Any new
fire ignitions will have the potential for very rapid fire spread,
long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior bringing a threat
to life and property.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect from 3 am to 3 pm pdt Monday for
zones 40-41-44-45-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

High wind warning in effect until 3 pm pdt Monday for zones
46-53-54. (see laxnpwlox).

Red flag warning in effect from 9 am Monday to 8 pm pdt
Tuesday for zones 238-251-252. (see laxrfwlox).

Red flag warning in effect from 3 am Monday to 8 pm pdt
Tuesday for zones 240-241-244-245-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 8 pm pdt Tuesday for zones
246-253-254. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect from 6 am Monday to 3 am pdt
Tuesday for zone 650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Tuesday for
zones 655-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
Offshore winds are expected through at least Saturday bringing
the possibility of an extended period of critical fire weather
conditions. Another round of gusty santa ana winds could develop
next weekend.

Public... Gomberg jld
aviation... Rorke
marine... Gomberg rat
fire... Gomberg boldt
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 0 mi44 min 65°F1016.2 hPa (+0.4)
AGXC1 1 mi44 min Calm G 0 63°F 1016.2 hPa (+0.4)
PFDC1 2 mi44 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9
PFXC1 3 mi44 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 63°F
PXAC1 3 mi44 min NW 1.9 G 2.9
PSXC1 4 mi44 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9
BAXC1 4 mi44 min NW 2.9 G 2.9
46256 4 mi44 min 65°F4 ft
PRJC1 5 mi44 min N 2.9 G 2.9
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 7 mi44 min 67°F2 ft
46253 11 mi44 min 65°F3 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 21 mi44 min 67°F3 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 23 mi44 min N 1 G 1.9 62°F 65°F1016.4 hPa (+0.5)
46262 39 mi44 min 68°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 42 mi34 min NW 7.8 G 12 65°F 68°F1015.9 hPa63°F

Wind History for Angels Gate, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Long Beach, Long Beach Airport, CA10 mi51 minN 08.00 miFair61°F59°F93%1016 hPa
Los Alamitos Army Airfield, CA13 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F57°F96%1016.2 hPa
Hawthorne, Hawthorne Municipal Airport, CA15 mi51 minN 09.00 miFair61°F59°F93%1016.1 hPa
Los Angeles, Los Angeles International Airport, CA17 mi51 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F59°F87%1016 hPa
Fullerton, Fullerton Municipal Airport, CA19 mi51 minN 08.00 miFair59°F55°F87%1015.5 hPa
Los Angeles / USC Campus Downtown, CA21 mi57 minN 09.00 miFair61°F57°F90%1015.8 hPa
John Wayne-Orange County Airport, CA21 mi51 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F57°F84%1015.6 hPa
Santa Monica, Santa Monica Municipal Airport, CA23 mi53 minN 310.00 miFair63°F57°F81%1016 hPa
Avalon Catalina Airport, CA23 mi53 minN 40.15 miFog58°F57°F100%1016 hPa

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Last 24hr--------------------CalmCalmCalmSW4NW4SW5W5W6W10W10W13W9W6W7
1 day ago--------------------SW8W6W4W6W4SW6SW6W8SW6W9W6SW7W4Calm
2 days ago--------------------CalmCalmW8W10--W16W14W16W16SW13
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W11SW11Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Los Angeles, California
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Los Angeles
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Mon -- 04:27 AM PDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM PDT     3.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:57 PM PDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:11 PM PDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.633.33.53.53.43.33.33.43.63.94.24.44.54.443.52.92.21.61.211.1

Tide / Current Tables for Los Patos (highway bridge), California
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Los Patos (highway bridge)
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Mon -- 05:27 AM PDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:50 AM PDT     1.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:57 PM PDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:23 PM PDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:29 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.522.52.72.92.82.52.122.12.42.83.23.63.73.63.32.92.31.71.20.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.