Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:30AM||Sunset 6:45PM||Wednesday September 19, 2018 1:20 PM PDT (20:20 UTC)||Moonrise 3:51PM||Moonset 1:29AM||Illumination 74%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coachella, CAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus65 kpsr 191641|
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
941 am mst Wed sep 19 2018
Update Updated aviation and fire weather discussions.
An upper level disturbance will move through the region today with
relatively deep tropical moisture drawn northward into arizona.
This will result in scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms across much of southern, and especially eastern
arizona starting this afternoon and possibly lingering into the
early overnight hours. Mostly cloudy skies today will also keep
temperatures below seasonal normals across southern arizona.
Slight rain chances will persist into Thursday before much drier
conditions and warmer temperatures return for this weekend and
early next week.
Very moist airmass resides over most of our CWA this morning. The
19.12z kpsr sounding had a pwat of 1.85" which is at record levels
for the back half of september. Not surprising, the sounding
exhibited a moist adiabatic profile above 700 mb. Mrms and
goes-17 data depict the players we've been watching on the move
this morning. Furthest south, a tropical depression remains with
convection flaring up. That is all feeding the moisture plume that
extends northward into arizona, and another weak low embedded
toward the north end of the goc. Swinging into ca nv, a pronounced
trough with enhanced southwesterly flow and much drier air. The
19.12z kvef sounding had just 0.3" of pwat. Thus we have a
convergence air of moist flow, oriented ssw to nne broadly from
ajo to phoenix to flagstaff.
Some of the convection this morning has electrified, though mainly
well to our south where there is more instability. Given the
extensive cloud cover this morning, we may have a hard to getting
more than showers and general thunderstorms to develop in our
forecast area for a while. Later this afternoon, as more dynamic
lift comes into play, we could see more robust convection in the
area we currently have the flash flood watch in effect. Therefore,
we will maintain the watch as is, noting that the flood threat
does increase the further east we go.
Many of the various cams are more bullish with convection over se
az, but it does not seem they (including latest runs of the hrrr)
aren't resolving the ongoing showers as well. That, in conjunction
with the noted area of low-level convergence, lends credibility to
an active day very much a possibility still.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to diminish by late
evening, but we may see some lingering over eastern arizona
through Thursday morning as moisture will remain plentiful and
upper level divergence will still be present. Considerable drying
will begin above 700mb Thursday morning once the pacific trough
exits well to the northeast. This drying will lead to much better
insolation on Thursday while enough low level moisture should
still be present for some isolated high terrain showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
The drier air from the north will shut off rain chances by
Thursday night while a high pressure ridge gradually rebuilds
across northern mexico. The desert southwest will remain under the|
influence of this ridge through at least early next week bringing
above normal temperatures beginning Friday. A deep pacific low off
the california coast will help to enhance the ridge over our area
while also providing several days of blocking flow. Forecast highs
have been raised some this weekend and early next week with lower
desert highs topping out between 100-105 most days.
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
approaching trof will pull significant monsoon moisture north and
into the greater phoenix area over the next 12-24 hours. Expect cigs
to develop AOA 10k feet after 12z with continuing
lowering thickening of cloud decks this morning. By 18z-20z cigs
should drop to 7-10k feet with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing. Added vcts to the tafs after about 19z and
kept the mention through the early evening. Decided to keep CIGS at
or above 6k feet but they could locally drop below 5k in a shower or
storm. Confidence in thunderstorms... And their timing... Is rather
low attm... As we may end up a bit too stable for storms to form
given the high moisture cloud content moving in. Locally heavy rain
a good possibility later into the afternoon hours, and visibility
could drop below 5sm in heavy showers but confidence too low to
mention vis restriction in the tafs. Winds could be gusty variable
should storms develop but we opted to keep general west winds in the
picture for most of today and into early evening before swinging
them to the south southeast.
Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
most of the convection should stay east of the lower colorado river
valley today, but there is a an outside chance that an isolated
thunderstorm could form along the river this morning and as such
added vcts to kblh for several hours this morning. Confidence in
this is moderate at best and the vcts may be a bit overplayed.
Otherwise CIGS should generally stay AOA 8k feet today with clearing
from the west by early evening. Expect little or no chance for any
precip at kipl, and winds should favor the southeast most of the
period. Winds to favor the south at kblh with gusts to around 20kt
likely during the afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.
Friday through Tuesday:
near normal temperatures Friday will rebound over the weekend and
climb several degrees or so above seasonal normals with a drying
trend expected through the 5 day period. Minimum humidity levels in
a 20-30% range Friday fall more solidly into the teens over the
weekend and into next week with some readings into the single digits
over far southeast california by next Monday. Overnight recovery
will vary widely from fair to excellent. Winds will remain mostly
light and quite typical for late summer early autumn.
Spotter information statement
Spotters reports may be needed later this week in arizona.
Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... Flash flood watch through this evening for azz548>555-558>563.
fire weather... Mo cb
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|46242 - Camp Pendleton Nearshore, CA (043)||84 mi||52 min||70°F||2 ft|
|46224 - Oceanside Offshore, CA (045)||87 mi||20 min||71°F||3 ft|
Wind History for La Jolla, CA(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA||11 mi||28 min||SE 7 G 15||10.00 mi||Fair||100°F||43°F||14%||1004.4 hPa|
Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SE||W||W||N||N||NW||N||NW||NW||NW|
|2 days ago||SE||Calm||SE||S||NW||N||N||N||E||N||NE||NW||NW||NW||Calm||NW||NE||N||NW||SE |
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GOES Local Image of Southwest EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (16,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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