Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 2:42 AM   Moonset 1:36 PM

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FXUS65 KPSR 022334 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 434 PM MST Thu May 2 2024

UPDATE
Updated 00z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
Slightly above normal temperatures are anticipated through Saturday with lower desert highs reaching the lower 90s each afternoon. A dry weather system will pass through the Intermountain West this weekend resulting in widespread breezy to windy conditions and cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will continue with steadily rebounding temperatures through early next week.

DISCUSSION
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies across much of the Southwest with some CU development occurring over some terrain/orographic features across Arizona. Temperatures so far this afternoon have climbed into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower deserts and low to mid 80s across higher elevation areas such as Globe and San Carlos. Temperatures going through the remainder of the afternoon will top out near to slightly above normal in the low 90s across lower elevation locales while light winds persist.

The warm, tranquil weather conditions is owed to persistent quasi- zonal flow across the Desert Southwest while broad scale troughing continues north of our area over the northwest CONUS. Heights will remain steady through the end of the week as 500 mb heights across our area remain around 573-575 dm. Thus, temperatures will remain consistent over the next couple of days as highs remain in the lower 90s with continued widespread Minor Heat Risk. Light winds will persist through tomorrow before ramping up Saturday in response to our next approaching weather system.

Confidence continues to increase in a closed low diving southward along the West Coast for the end of the week before progressing inland across the Great Basin Sunday. Ensemble cluster analysis shows consistency amongst global ensembles continues to increase related to how this weather system will evolve with some minor discrepancies surrounding its magnitude. While the greatest negative height anomalies will reside to the north of our area, we will see an increase in strong winds along with cooler temperatures this weekend. ECMWF EFI indicates anomalous winds for parts of our area, particularly southeast California, this weekend while the greatest anomalies remain displaced further to the north of our area across places such as the northern Arizona high terrain. The latest NBM shows probabilities for 40+ mph winds increasing upwards of 80-90% across portions of southeast California, primarily Imperial County, Saturday afternoon/evening. Thus, have issued Wind Advisories for portions of Imperial County beginning Saturday afternoon, though these may need to be expanded and extended into Sunday as we get closer. Dust channels may develop across dust prone areas as a result of these strong winds, which can reduce visibilities and make travel hazardous. Sunday, a cold front associated with this system will sweep through the area, dropping temperatures well below normal across southeast California and southwest Arizona where NBM highs are in the upper 70s to low 80s across the lower deserts. Strong winds spread east across Arizona Sunday with gusts to 30-40 mph possible (>60%)
across portions of south-central Arizona. While we will see a brief spike in moisture, with PWATs increasing to around 0.7-0.9" along/ahead of the front, rain is not expected with NBM PoPs near zero for the entire area.

Longwave troughing will continue to be reinforced over the Intermountain West through Monday which will also feature near to slightly below normal temperatures and continued breeziness across the region. Heading into the middle of next week, temperatures look to slowly rebound to slightly above normal, however the overall longwave troughing pattern across the Western CONUS looks to persist.

AVIATION
Updated at 1720Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Wind pattern will continue to exhibit diurnal tendencies, with a period of southerly winds expected through the early afternoon hours before a full transition out of the west. Wind speeds will generally remain aob 10 kts, although some occasional gusts into the mid-teens will be possible through the afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will become easterly once again during the overnight hours.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally be southerly through the period with speeds below 10 kts. Extended periods of variability in the wind direction are likely.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm and dry weather with light and diurnal winds will continue through the remainder of this week. Afternoon highs will top out around 2-4 degrees above normal through Saturday. A dry weather system will pass north of the region on Sunday, resulting in widespread breezy to windy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. Winds could gust in excess of 40 mph across parts of SE California Saturday afternoon and evening and again Sunday morning/afternoon, while gusts climb to 30-40 mph across southcentral AZ on Sunday. Afternoon min RHs will bottom out around 8-20% over the next few days, while overnight recoveries remain in the poor to fair category between 30-60% for most areas.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ563-566-567.

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