Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 11:03 AM   Moonset 12:43 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 647 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
Tonight - S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 6 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Thu - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds and nw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Thu night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and nw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Fri - NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 647 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles -
a complex storm system will affect the coastal waters through Wednesday with more tranquil conditions Thu into Fri as high pressure prevails. The next frontal system will affect the area Fri night into the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 150015 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 815 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure developing along a front to the north Wednesday will maintain high chances for showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather will develop Thursday and Friday behind a cold front, but more rain is likely this weekend as the next storm system approaches from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast soundings show deep layer saturation at the current time. This has hampered instability and lightning this afternoon has been hard to come by. This may change from SW to NE as some subsidence behind meso-low currently moving through kicks in but most convective guidance doesn't really show precip filling back in much. With such deep moisture and a moderately well defied trough to our west it'll be tough to ever go with a precip-free forecast through tonight but POPs will taper down to chc/schc thresholds. Mid levels do partially dry out tomorrow allowing for some sunshine and much healthier destabilization, possibly to the tune of 1500-2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE. The WRF develops some aggressive LL lapse rates and has values closer to 3000 J/Kg but this seems overdone. SPC continues to advertise MRGL with a wind and hail threat as we lose some of the directional shear that was present today. After a cloud cover- caused mild night tonight tomorrow afternoon's temperatures will be seasonable.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Lingering showers and thunderstorms for Wed evening, especially over the Cape Fear region as the upr trough swings through and some mid-level moisture remains in place before drying overnight as flow aloft veers to the WNW. Low-level moisture will be slower to erode, however, which means a partly to mostly cloudy sky into the day Thursday. Highs in the low 80s. Continued dry into Thursday night with an axis of weak sfc high pressure directly over the area...light winds and low temps in the upr 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Still a fair bit of uncertainty in the long term period. It will likely rain at some point this weekend with upr-level energy expected to not miss to the north or south. First shot of rain is Friday night through Saturday in association with lead shortwave energy out ahead of the upr-level trough axis, with NW areas most likely to receive rainfall. Second chance is Saturday night into Sunday as the trough axis and sfc cold front swing through, but timing this as well as the amount of mid- level moisture available is difficult this far out. General drying trend then into early next week with the front pushing offshore. Temps close to climatological norms this period.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Convective coverage should become more isolated by mid to late evening. And will be able to even remove VCSH or VCTS.
Otherwise, main concern will be the IFR low stratus and potential for fog/dense fog during the pre-dawn Wed hrs as winds veer to the WSW-SW and diminish. The low stratus will likely extend thru mid-morning b4 mixing and the days heating combine to transition the stratus to cumulus. Thunderstorms are expected to return by midday tomorrow as we destabilize and the approaching upper s/w trof pushes across. Have included a PROB30 for thunderstorm activity from 18Z-24Z Wed aftn/evening.

Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions possible early Wed evening from thunderstorm activity. VFR conditions to dominate Thu thru Fri. The next system with potential flight restrictions to affect the area this weekend.

MARINE
Through Wednesday... Low pressure to our west and high pressure off the coast through the period. The system to our west will progress east on Wednesday pushing a front into the area veering flow from SE to SW tonight while the gradient relaxes slightly.
It will likely take until Wednesday for wind and waves to drop below thresholds and no changes have been made to the current SCA, the wind waves representing much more of the wave presence than the 1 ft easterly swell.

Wednesday Night through Sunday... Improving marine conditions from Wednesday night through Friday as weak sfc high pressure builds in allowing for winds and seas to decrease. Over the weekend, pressure gradient increases slightly ahead of a cold front approaching from the west, with southerly winds up to ~15 kt on Saturday. For now, conditions though look to remain below SCA thresholds both ahead of the front and behind it late Sunday as CAA is weak.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Other - Rip Currents: A long fetch of south-southeasterly onshore winds should generate a considerable 6-second wind wave today.
Along the North Carolina beaches objective statistical MOS and local equations suggest this will produce a high risk of rip currents this afternoon. For the South Carolina beaches, onshore winds should remain weaker and the rip current risk is expected to climb into the "moderate" category today.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.

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Myrtle Beach, Combination Bridge, South Carolina, Tide feet

Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Tue -- 12:56 AM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:38 PM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina, Tide feet

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