Saturday, May27, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Red Hill, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 8:20PM Saturday May 27, 2017 1:25 PM EDT (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 7:04AMMoonset 9:26PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1210 Pm Edt Sat May 27 2017
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1210 Pm Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will hold across the area through Monday. A cold front will approach from the north Tuesday and then stall through much of next week...maintaining the threat for showers and Thunderstorms each day.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Hill, SC
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location: 33.75, -79.07     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 271340
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
940 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Increasingly hot temperatures are expected over the weekend
as high pressure over florida moves slowly eastward. By Tuesday
the high should be far enough away to allow a weak cold front
to stall across the carolinas. This front will linger through
Friday, enhancing the potential for scattered thunderstorms.

Near term through tonight
As of 940 am Saturday... No significant changes to the forecast
at this time. A batch of convection will pass north of the area
between 5pm and 10 pm. A bit later in the evening a few storms
will approach our inland i-95 zones between 10pm and midnight
but diurnal cooling will cause them to weaken on approach at far
western doorstep.

As of 300 am Saturday... A hot and dry start to the memorial day
weekend as flat elongated ridge across the gulf coast exerts its
influence locally. However, the weather will become potentially more
active late tonight as a vorticity impulse embedded in a band of
increased westerlies aloft rotates just north of the area.

Satellite imagery early this morning shows mostly clear sky
conditions minus the odd patch of cirrus moving overhead. Broad high
pressure centered across fl remains the dominant feature, while a
weak baroclinic boundary oriented e-to-w lies across va and back
into the oh vly. It is the confluence between the upper features
driving this surface setup that will create the enhanced westerlies
and potential convection late. Before this occurs, a thermal plume
of very warm air will advect from W to E across the region causing
850mb temps to climb towards +16c, and 700mb temps up over +11c.

This warming of the column combined with dry W NW flow aloft will
drive temps into the low 90s away from the beaches this aftn, while
also serving as a cap to any diurnal convection. In fact, even as
pwats climb towards 1.5 inches, diurnal CU will struggle to gain
much depth thanks to this dry and warm air aloft. In other words, it
should be a great start weather-wise for the holiday wknd, with S sw
wind gusts of 20-25+ mph being the only non-ideal parameter this

Winds will ease after dark, and the focus will shift to an area of
convection likely to be ongoing to the west this evening. A potent
vorticity impulse will race eastward tonight, likely shifting just
north of the area before exiting offshore early Sunday morning. A
very warm and increasingly unstable airmass ahead of this feature
suggests that tstms will develop beneath it, and may form into an
mcs as is typically seen in these "ring of fire" type setups. The
question is how much of this will persist as we lose instability
tonight, as well as how far south will the convection sink as it
becomes impeded by the ridge. Most high res guidance suggests that
tstms will just graze the northern fringe of the CWA after midnight,
and even this will be in a weakening state. It is interesting to
note that both the nssl WRF and latest arw suggest convection
falling apart as a cold pool surges ahead of the TSTM complex. Not
sure how much to trust that exact scenario, but weakening of tstms
seems likely as they zoom past the area despite strong ml lapse
rates. SPC has placed the far NW tier of counties into a mrgl risk
for tonight, and with increasing mid-level winds and steep lapse
rates, if the cap is broken and convection can sustain itself
tonight, a strong wind risk does exist. However, expect most of the
strong storms to be north and west of the cwa, and have carried chc
pop along and north of a line from hartsville, sc... To maple hill,
nc, with barely any chance at all south of there.

Continued warm SW winds much of the night will keep mins from
falling much below 70 most locations tonight. Lower rain cooled
mins are possible in a few locations if tstms develop, but this will
be a very near term forecast challenge if it occurs.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 300 am Saturday... 500 mb high pressure will strengthen as
it slowly moves eastward across florida early next week. Surface
high pressure typically sets up around 30 degrees north latitude
this time of year, but will be located much farther south this
time given the position of the upper center. Deep westerly flow
is expected across the carolinas both days bringing hot
temperatures and a chance of thunderstorms.

A series of 500 mb vort maxes will move across north carolina
and northernmost south carolina Sunday afternoon through Monday
night. Each model has a different timing and path for the individual
disturbances, so it's not possible to have much confidence about
the timing and location of the best risk for storms. Despite
steep lapse rates aloft and relatively good low-level moisture,
there is a good deal of dry air noted in all models at and above
the 800 mb level which should reduce the number of storms able
to develop. Even if only a couple storm cells do develop, strong
westerly winds throughout the depth of the troposphere should
push these cells eastward at 30 mph. Given even limited storm
organization, dry air aloft would favor storms propagating
rapidly eastward on "running" outflow boundaries that could push
the effective storm motion up over 40 mph. Forecast pops each
12-hour period range from 20-30 percent, generally higher north
of florence, myrtle beach, and southport.

With high angle sunshine and 850 mb temps of +18c to +19c, high
temperatures should soar into the 90s both days away from the
beaches. Monday looks like the warmest day when temps in the
mid 90s could occur inland with heat indices eclipsing 100
degrees during the afternoon hours. There is only one record
high that might be in jeopardy: Monday's record in florence is
only 95 (set in 1991) versus our latest forecast of 93.

Moderate to strong seabreeze circulations are expected both
days with afternoon wind gusts near the beaches likely reaching
25 mph. Synoptic westerly wind should keep the seabreeze front
very close to the coast with only limited penetration (~10
miles) inland expected. Very warm nighttime lows 70-75 degrees
are expected both nights.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... Primary headline for the extended forecast
period is 'unsettled', as a low-amplitude but broad upper trough
translates slowly east across new england and the mid-atlantic
seaboard. Near the base of the trough, phasing impulses from the
southern jet stream over top the gulf ridge will allow a series of
whisking disturbances to bring TSTM chances much of the upcoming
week when coupled with late may and early june heating and an
active afternoon sea breeze boundary. Temperatures however will
remain slightly above normal as the thermal influence is
exerted more by the gulf and SE states upper ridge. No shortage
of column mositure or dry mid level caps to impede convection
with pwat values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches next week, so what
convection does form will be capable of dumping good rain
amounts. Storm motion generally will be from west to east, so
all locations will have a good chance of rainfall and tstms at
one point during the upcoming week.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 12z...VFR conditions will prevail as a typical summer
pattern develops across the carolinas today. West-southwest
winds 10 knots or less will become stronger from the south at
the myr and cre airports with this afternoon's seabreeze. A
disturbance approaching from the west may help develop
cumulus altocumulus clouds with bases in the 6000-foot range
tonight with isolated showers possible.

Extended outlook... Brief MVFR ifr conditions are possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening, and again
Monday night through Tuesday.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Saturday... Elongated high pressure across the gulf
coast will exert its influence on the local waters today. SW winds
in the vicinity of this high will increase steadily this aftn,
becoming 15-20 kts across all waters. A local backing and increase
in speed is forecast within the near-shore sea breeze circulation as
well where wind gusts of up to 25 kts are expected through this
evening. Winds will remain primarily SW through tonight with only a
slight decrease in speeds. However, a complex of tstms moving to the
north may create some variable wind directions due to boundary
interactions overnight. Seas will be 3-4 ft most of this period,
with the SW wind chop of 5 sec masking the lower amplitude 8-9 sec
se swell.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 300 am Saturday... Surface high pressure that typically
sets up around 30 degrees north latitude (north florida) this
time of year will instead be displaced a few hundred miles to
the south. West-southwesterly winds are expected both Sunday and
Monday along the northern periphery of the high. Given the
unusual southern position of the high, a backdoor cold front may
get close to our portion of the coast Sunday afternoon and
evening. Model consensus drops the front no farther south than
the southern outer banks currently.

Inland temperatures should soar into the 90s both Sunday and
Monday, which should generate a moderate to strong seabreeze
both days. Wind gusts could reach 20-25 knots near the beaches
between 3-7 pm. Also of concern, there is a chance of fast-
moving thunderstorms Sunday evening and again Monday
afternoon evening. Winds aloft are such that any storms could be
moving eastward at 30-35 knots, making it imperative that
offshore mariners keep a close watch on weather conditions well
off to the west.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Sw winds this period 15 kt or less except
higher afternoon gusts associated with an active sea breeze.

Sea heights generally a 2-3 foot range this period, along with
isolated to scattered inshore tstms mainly in the late
afternoons and evening as storms push off land over the 0-20nm
waters. Troughing inland may bring the highest winds of 15-20 kt
sustained Wednesday. Mariners should get a radar update before
heading out this period as there will be a chance of storms each

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra 8
near term... Jdw 8
short term... Tra
long term... Mjc
aviation... Tra 43

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 10 mi37 min 1014.2 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 28 mi100 min W 8 82°F 1015 hPa64°F
SSBN7 32 mi85 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 32 mi77 min SW 9.7 G 14 75°F 75°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Conway Horry County Airport, SC6 mi30 minW 47.00 miFair86°F66°F52%1014.9 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi40 minS 1010.00 miFair84°F68°F58%1015.2 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi32 minSSW 1310.00 miFair82°F69°F65%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from HYW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW5SW5W5W4SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW3W4SW7W5W6
1 day agoN6
2 days agoS9S11

Tide / Current Tables for Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Sat -- 03:37 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:18 AM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:22 PM EDT     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Sat -- 04:47 AM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:26 AM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:19 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:30 PM EDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.