Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Briarcliffe Acres, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:12PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:04 AM EST (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:48PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 315 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Today..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 315 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A coastal trough will brush the coast today into Monday. A cold front will cross the waters Tuesday night and will be followed by cooler high pressure for the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Briarcliffe Acres, SC
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location: 33.77, -78.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181043
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
540 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
A weak area of low pressure near the coast could produce a
little light rain tonight into Monday. A dry cold front will
sweep offshore Tuesday evening. Cooler weather is expected for
Wednesday and thanksgiving day as high pressure builds in from
the west. A complex area of low pressure could bring substantial
rain to the area next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Sunday... Weak coastal trough taking shape off the coasts
of ga and NE fl will sharpen through the morning then slowly lift
northwest as surface high exits new england. Increasing mid level
moisture as the flow around 850 becomes southerly will spread
shallow moisture over the southeast later today into tonight. The
result locally will be an increase in cloud cover this evening and
overnight with chances of light rain increasing from south to north
across the area after midnight. Any rain that develops will be
light, due to the weak nature of the isentropic lift and the shallow
nature of the moisture. Despite the limiting factors think there a
decent chance for areas seeing measurable rain from the event,
especially closer to the sc coast. More typical coastal trough
starts to develop overnight, just off the nc sc coast as the high
departs. This may lead to another area of enhanced precip chances
just off the coast, brushing the CAPE fear during the pre-dawn
hours. Again, anything that develops will be light weak but in the
coastal zones may be enough to produce measurable rain. Increasing
cloud cover today will limit temperatures, especially across inland
sc where highs will only be a degree or 2 warmer than yesterday.

Lows will end up above to well above climo with cloud cover and
increasing warm advection keeping coastal areas in the low 50s and
inland areas in the mid to upper 40s.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 300 am Sunday... An active jet stream is forecast over the
next several days as a northern stream shortwave moves across
iowa on Monday, then across the southern great lakes and into
new england by Tuesday. A speed MAX in the subtropical jet will
move across the carolinas Monday night, but lags a little
behind and never phases with the northern stream disturbance.

At the surface a weak coastal trough that develops today along
the ga coast will advect north toward the CAPE fear coastline
Monday. Models have a large spread in potential positions for
this trough, ranging from near wilmington (ecmwf), to myrtle
beach-whiteville (gfs), to marion-lumberton (nam). The trough
should remain weak enough that sensible weather shouldn't vary
much on either side, but its position will determine local wind
directions and temperatures as well. I've gone with a more
coastal location for the trough, following the GFS and ecmwf.

The trough will lift out to the northeast Monday night as
synoptic low pressure developing across the mid-atlantic states
becomes the dominant player for local wind directions.

Modest isentropic lift and even a bit of elevated instability
Monday should lead to patchy light rain or showers, particularly
near the coast during the morning hours. Forecast pops range
from 20 percent inland to 30-50 percent along the coast, but
with QPF of only a few hundredths of an inch. Moisture should
thin out during the afternoon with dry weather expected by
sunset.

The low developing across the mid-atlantic states on Monday will
deepen as it moves near coastal new england on Tuesday. This
will drag a dry cold front southeastward and through the eastern
carolinas Tuesday evening. Cold advection will develop behind
this front for Tuesday night with morning lows dipping back
into the 30s inland.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 500 pm Saturday... The longwave upper pattern to continue
through this period as identified in the short term. However,
mid-level S W troughs during this period remain active and
possibly a bit more potent. The influence of the subtropical
jet over the polar westerlies continues across the fa, with the
sfc cfp Tuesday followed by CAA that brings temps back down to
at or slightly below normal as a good chunk of canadian high
pressure breaks away and dives to the gulf coast states by wed
and across the fa thu. A potent S W trof within the polar
westerlies pushes across the NE states early Thu followed by
very cold canadian high pressure that follows a secondary cfp
across the fa during the day on thu. A portion of this cold high
is progged to work it's way across the local CWA due to another
wedge setup late Fri into sat. Will see cloud development and
light stratiform pcpn occur by sat. Flow aloft is not conducive
to pull completely onshore the coastal trough that will
eventually develop late Fri into sat.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
As of 12z... Moderate to high confidence forVFR conditions through
the forecast period. Observations around the region show an
occasionalVFR ceiling around 5k ft. Should stay scattered most of
the day. Tonight, clouds will be on the increase as return flow
begins. The NAM is the outlier with lifr fog. Think cloud cover will
prevent that, but will reevaluate with next model runs.

Extended outlook... Flight restrictions possible overnight Sunday
into Monday due to a weak disturbance off the coast. Otherwise,VFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Sunday... High pressure off the new england coast will
maintain northeast flow through the period. Gradient will slowly
weaken later today into tonight as the high slowly departs and weak
coastal trough starts to develop. Speeds will drop from around 10 kt
this morning to closer to 5 kt overnight. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft
through the period.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night ...

as of 300 am Sunday... A weak coastal trough developing today
to our south will work its way north to the coastal carolinas
Monday. This feature should remain very weak, but models are
still having difficulty determining where the boundary will set
up during the day. Wind speeds will remain 10 kt or less, but
directions will vary depending on precisely where the trough
moves. I'm penciling in the trough right on the coast Monday,
maintaining mainly a northeasterly wind direction during the
day, shifting westerly Monday night as the trough moves offshore
in response to low pressure developing up across the mid-
atlantic states.

A dry cold front will push offshore Tuesday evening, followed by
a reinforcing shot of cold air on north winds. At this time it
appears wind speeds will increase to 15-20 kt Tuesday night, but
remain below advisory criteria.

Long term Wednesday through Thursday ...

as of 500 pm Saturday... Eventually, the entire CWA waters from
surf city to south santee river will be under a SCA after the
secondary cfp. With N to NE winds at 15 to 25 kt as the sfc pg
tightens in response the wedge setting up. Significant seas will
run 3 to 6 ft by the end of the long term period. This slow
building process is due to a shortened fetch. However, with
winds progged to further veer to the NE or ene by the end of
this fcst, sig. Seas will likely further build.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Iii
short term... Tra
long term... Dch
aviation... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 35 mi80 min NE 7 60°F 1026 hPa58°F
41108 43 mi35 min 65°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC6 mi72 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F52°F81%1025.8 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi69 minNE 810.00 miOvercast57°F53°F87%1026.3 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC17 mi90 minNE 47.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F51°F94%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE65SE4S5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3NE5NE3NE4NE5N5NE5NE4NE5NE7NE6NE6NE5E5
1 day agoNW76NW8NW5NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3NW3N4N6N5N4N6NE7NE8NE9NE7
2 days agoNW7W13
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W75NW6NW5W7W5NW6NW8NW10

Tide / Current Tables for North Myrtle Beach, ICWW, South Carolina
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North Myrtle Beach
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Sun -- 12:20 AM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:25 AM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:41 PM EST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:51 PM EST     1.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.81.11.41.71.91.91.81.61.41.21.1111.11.41.71.91.91.91.71.41.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, ICWW, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
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Sun -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 AM EST     2.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:42 AM EST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:14 PM EST     2.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.92.42.72.82.72.421.61.2111.31.82.32.72.92.92.62.21.71.20.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.