Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Briarcliffe Acres, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:05PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 6:13 PM EST (23:13 UTC) Moonrise 7:29PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 323 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Variable winds around 10 kt becoming sw 10. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely, mainly this evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt, increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..NE winds 15 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft.
AMZ200 323 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A coastal front just offshore will track toward the coast, pushing onshore tonight and further inland before dissipating during Thu. A cold front dropping southward late Thu will stall across or just south of the area waters Fri and Sat. Sun will see this front return north as a warm front, pushing across the area early in the day. The next cold front will arrive from the west Sun night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Briarcliffe Acres, SC
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location: 33.77, -78.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 202129
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
429 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A coastal trough slides inland tonight into Thursday, before a
frontal boundary drops through the area Thursday night. High
pressure will build in from the north Friday. The next cold
front crosses the area Sunday.

Near term through Thursday night
As of 330 pm Wednesday... The cad event across the CWA will
come to an end during tonight into thu. Conditions will improve
via temperatures and slowly extend inland with time as the
coastal front pushes onshore and further inland. Unfortunately,
models are not in total agreement with one another in the
breakdown of cad conditions thruout the ilm cwa. Looking at
various model MOS guidance, a big discrepancy exists for the flo
and lbt locations where high temperatures for Thu are forecast
to range from the mid to upper 50s with the nam MOS to the mid
70s with the GFS mos. Being the NAM seems to execute much better
with cad events will lean toward the cooler bias and illustrate
a range of temperatures across the fa especially with the
coastal front having moved to the immediate coast attm. The
hourly temp dewpt grids may need plenty of hand editing at times
due to the poor model output identifying this range and it's
movements. Will hold onto low clouds and threat for light pcpn
across the inland locations along and west of i-95 a bit longer
during the day on thu. East of i-95 to the coast, will see temps
rebound thru the 60s and into the 70s. Pcpn will become more
showery, convective in nature tonight and Thu as the coastal
front pushes inland. For Thu night, models indicate the next cad
event to commence with a frontal boundary dropping southward,
being pushed by a 1035 mb high that will be migrating eastward
toward new england. By late Thu night, a good portion of the fa
will be experiencing this transition.

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Warmup seen on Thursday is short-lived,
as a backdoor cold front drops to the south Friday morning and
high pressure builds in from the north allowing for yet another
cad setup. Temps will be slightly below normal most areas (highs
in the mid 50s north to low mid 60s far south), with periods of
rain expected in association with weak isentropic upglide. Not
much change in the wx pattern Friday night with a coastal trough
still offshore. Continued chances of rain with NE flow, a
cloudy sky, and low temps in the mid upr 40s.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Long term period starts off Saturday
with a coastal front trying to advance inland. With strong high
pressure still off to the ne, the front may struggle to make
much inland progression until late in the day. Daytime temps
expected to reach into the 60s, except upr 50s far nw. Best
chances of rain (50% pops) also over NW areas. Drier and mild
into Saturday night with south flow developing ahead of the next
cold front. This front crosses the area late Sunday, but capped
pops at 30-40% due to the best forcing and moisture profiles
staying north of the local area. Highs in the mid 70s. Dry then
into early next week as surface high pressure builds in from the
west. Chances for rain return late Tuesday and especially
Wednesday.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
As of 18z... Lifr conditions across the area have settled in and
should continue through this evening. Overnight, expect fg br
to develop ahead of an approaching warm front from the south.

Coastal terminals should look for sea fog to advect far enough
inland to cause restrictions, especially cre myr. The warm front
pushes northward by tomorrow morning and fog and low cigs
begins to lift as a SW wind around 5-10 knots develops.

Scattered showers will remain, but terminals could see a slight
improvement to ifr MVFR by that time.

Extended outlook... Thursday afternoon, ifr ceilings should lift.

The front lingering in the area could lead to more ifr ceilings
and or vsbys Friday into Saturday as another round of
overrunning rain develops.

Marine
For tonight thru Thursday night...

the SCA to remain in effect for both nc and sc waters this
evening thru the overnight and possibly until mid to late
daytime morning for the nc waters. The SCA is basically for the
slow subsiding of the elevated seas currently at or above sca
thresholds.

The coastal trof front has basically moved from just offshore
earlier today to the immediate coast attm. It is fcst to push
slightly further inland before stalling overnight. For the area
waters, currently winds have become basically variable in
direction at 10 kt or less due to the relaxed sfc pg. With time
this evening and overnight, winds will become south to southwest
around 10 kt, with the tighter sfc pg and resulting speeds
remaining well offshore. Sea fog will become an issue this
evening and especially overnight and well into daytime thu. Sfc
dewpoints in the 60 to 64 degree range will advect across ssts
that are in the mid 50s which is enough of a difference between
the 2 for sea fog to develop. A dense sea fog advisory will
likely be needed for the waters once it becomes established.

For Thu into Thu night, the area waters will see relatively
light winds, SW 10-15 kt. However, late Thu night the next cold
front will drop southward pushing across portions of the local
waters by daybreak fri. Winds will turn to the N to NE and
increase due to tightening of the sfc pg from the ridging
combined with the CAA surge.

For Friday thru Monday...

sub-small craft advisory conditions to start the day Friday,
before NE flow increases in response to high pressure building
over the NE states. Seas will also increase to 6 ft during the
afternoon hours, when another small craft advisory will likely
be needed. Winds seas slacken a bit into Saturday as a coastal
trough locates in the vicinity. 6 ft seas possibly return
Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, which crosses the
waters late Sunday. High pressure and improving marine
conditions then into Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 pm Wednesday... Minor coastal flooding will again be
possible during the evening and again during Thu daytime high
tide along the lower CAPE fear river from wilmington southward.

High tide occurs at 1033 pm tonight and again 1100 am Thu with
minor flooding possible in a 3 to 4 hr window centered at high
tide.

Tide levels are forecast to remain just below minor coastal
flooding thresholds for the immediate nc and sc coasts.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for amz254-256.

Small craft advisory until noon est Thursday for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Mas
near term... Dch
short term... Mas
long term... Mas
aviation... 21
marine... Dch mas
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 19 mi66 min N 5.8 G 12 55°F 53°F1019.8 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 35 mi149 min NNW 5.1 55°F 1020 hPa55°F
41108 43 mi44 min 54°F6 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC6 mi21 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast55°F54°F96%1020.3 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi18 minNW 93.00 miFog/Mist53°F52°F96%1021.3 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC17 mi39 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist46°F46°F100%1021.3 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for North Myrtle Beach, ICWW, South Carolina
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North Myrtle Beach
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Wed -- 04:57 AM EST     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:47 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:16 AM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:29 PM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:44 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.90.2-0.4-0.9-1.1-0.70.21.222.42.321.40.80.1-0.5-0.8-0.7-0.20.71.52.12.2

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, ICWW, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
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Wed -- 03:58 AM EST     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:47 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:39 AM EST     3.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:30 PM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:07 PM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.8-0.1-0.8-1.1-0.60.41.72.83.53.63.32.51.60.6-0.3-0.8-0.7-01.12.133.33.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.