Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 1:54 PM   Moonset 2:08 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 643 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds. Showers and tstms likely. Sun - NW winds 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and N 1 ft at 3 seconds. Showers and tstms likely. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.Tue - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wed - NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 643 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A storm system will affect the area this weekend with the chance for Thunderstorms. The associated cold frontal passage will occur Monday followed by a stronger push of high pressure that could require a sca Monday into Tuesday.

FXUS62 KILM 172251 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 651 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper low and cold front approaching from the west will bring unsettled weather through SUnday. Cooler and drier air arrives Sunday night. Later next week will feature a warmup and only a gradual increase in rain chances.

UPDATE
Latest KLTX and surrounding radar trends used to incorporate hrly POPs thru midnight than meshed with ongoing fcst there- after. Ltg difficult to come by given the observed low topped pcpn, thus kept thunder limited to slight chance for tonight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Increasing WAA/isentropic upglide will cause clouds to lower/thicken overnight. Some light rain should also spread into the area from the south and west but guidance seemed a bit fast as the lift if weak initially. This uncertainty sort of translates into tomorrow's forecast. Guidance varies considerably regarding Saturday's eventual destabilization and our severe weather potential. With both a surface front and a mid level vort and possibly a convective MCV there may be enough forcing to overcome less than impressive instability. SPC continues to highlight our area for SLGT mainly for winds. Shear isn't very impressive but heavy rain and wet microbursts seem the most likely culprits.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Main upper trough axis approaches Sat night and swings through late Sunday keeping the weather quite unsettled. The same arguments above regarding good forcing but poor instability applies, though with rain somewhat widespread pockets of sunshine that were possible Sat seem unlikely Sun. Cooler and much drier air spills in from the NW Sun night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Monday's highs quite seasonable as a narrow area of high pressure builds in but dewpoints barely above 60 will give a much earlier in the Spring feel. The high moves east and upper ridging builds Tuesday and Wed allowing for a warmup. The latter part of the period will feature a bit more in the way of moisture possibly supporting isolated storms caused by mainly mesoscale processes. A cold front could lead to a more substantial rain offering on Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR for the remainder of today with gradual lowering of cloud cover overnight, eventually dipping to IFR if not lower. Showers should increase in coverage overnight as well but may be hard pressed to lead to significant VSBY restrictions.

Extended Outlook...The next storm system and associated periodic flight restrictions will affect the area late Fri night thru the weekend and likely into Mon.

MARINE
Through Saturday... Light S to SE winds tonight with about a category of speed increase on Saturday as a front approaches. The sea state will be comprised predominantly of wind waves with no appreciable swell, so we should add a foot to the upper range on Saturday, 2 ft opening up to 2-3.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Pre-frontal flow regime will see increase wind speeds as a front approaches Saturday night. A fairly sharp wind shift to northerly occurs with FROPA Sunday making for choppy, short period seas. High pressure keeps a northerly component on Monday with abating gradient/seas. Light NE winds Tuesday less from the high and moreso from a weak offshore low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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