Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 11:46 PM   Moonset 8:22 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 271724 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 923 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Limited threat for strong gradient winds today will be the primary concern through tonight. Daytime heating and increasing humidity have the day's cloud deck already forming to the south. Analyzed PWAT values of 1.1-1.2 inches are too dry for much in the way of precip today, but an isolated shower or storm could develop in the Delta where moisture and instability are slightly greater. /NF/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Through tonight: Strong convection over southeast Arkansas earlier this morning has lifted northward, with a few showers lingering mainly across areas along and west of the MS River.
Today will be warm and windy as the next in a series of potent storm systems winds up over the Plains states. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient today, which along with deep mixing to around 850 mb, will result in gusts over 30 mph at times. Some wind gusts will hang around into tonight as well, as the gradient persists and the low level jet strengthens. We will continue to advertise a limited threat for gradient winds this weekend in our HWO graphics, but gusts are expected to remain below Wind Advisory criteria. Otherwise, we can't rule out spotty warm advection showers today, but the probability of measurable rain appears rather low. /DL/

Sunday through next week...

Our area will be under the influence of a summer-like regime in the extended period with no real airmass change. Warm and humid conditions will support rain and storm chances nearly every day, especially during the afternoon when diurnal heating is maximized.
The primary disturbance of concern pushes across the area Monday and could bring the chance for stronger storms with a primary threat for damaging winds.

Breezy conditions will continue at the start of the period Sunday and a limited wind graphic has been posted to reflect this. Winds will diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes Sunday night into Monday.

Attention then turns to a system Monday that could bring a threat for strong to severe storms and some heavy rain. Right entrance region of the mid-upper jet will provide synoptic scale ascent over the area. A shortwave pushes across the area Monday and associated speed max increases deep layer shear, enhancing organization. With ample instability in place, an organized MCS appears probable and should drive a primary damaging wind threat.
In addition, PWAT in excess of 1.5 inches and deep warm cloud layer will result in efficient rainfall rates, thus a flash flood threat also appears possible. Expect more details as they become available.

Warm and humid conditions continue under the influence of broad upper ridging with intermittent showers and storms. A weak cold front around the weekend time frame could bring slightly cooler temperatures, though significant airmass change is unlikely./SAS/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the area to start off the period. S/SE winds will be gusty at times through the TAF period with gusts to around 30 kts possible. Some gusts may linger into tonight. A period of LLWS will be a concern at sites where sites decouple from the surface starting at 04Z Sunday and will last until a little after 12Z Sunday. Winds will begin to diminish Monday evening. Additional cloud development will be possible early Sunday morning with all TAF sites dropping into MVFR/IFR conditions. Ceilings will start to improve to VFR by Sunday afternoon. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 86 66 83 67 / 0 0 20 10 Meridian 86 64 83 63 / 10 0 20 0 Vicksburg 87 68 85 67 / 0 0 20 20 Hattiesburg 87 65 83 66 / 0 0 20 0 Natchez 86 68 85 67 / 10 0 20 20 Greenville 86 69 83 68 / 10 0 20 40 Greenwood 87 68 83 67 / 0 0 20 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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