Sunday, February17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Grenada, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:48PM Sunday February 17, 2019 7:56 PM CST (01:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:39PMMoonset 6:07AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grenada, MS
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location: 33.78, -89.81     debug

Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 172322 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service jackson ms
522 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019

Updated for 00z aviation discussion

00z TAF discussion:
main aviation issues right now are along and just behind the cold
front where light precip is helping reduce some visby and
ceilings. Conditions will mostly be MVFR ifr behind the wind shift
and linger as such for a few hours. Sites with those restrictions
look to see improvements toVFR sometime in the 03-06z range.

After 06- 07z,VFR looks to prevail for all sites with N nne
winds into mon. Only concern for Mon would be some wind gusts
across central southern sites where 19-22kt gusts are possible
between 15- 20z. Cme

Tonight and tomorrow...

a southward moving cold front stretches from near natchez to near
meridian this afternoon. A sharp temperature gradient exists across
the region with temperature readings ranging from the low 40s in the
delta to near 80 in the pine belt. Shower activity over the last few
hours has been limited to areas north of the frontal boundary.

Activity has been widespread north of i-55 since mid morning but
expect coverage in these areas to begin to wane as drier air
arrives. Expect shower activity to continue to spread southward and
temperatures to continue to fall as the front continues to push
towards the gulf coast.

The front will be south of the region by late this evening but a few
light post frontal showers will still exist through the southern
portions of the region overnight. Drier air will continue to filter
into the region from the NW as high pressure from the plains builds
into the region. Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s in the
delta to the upper 40 in the pinebelt.

Drier conditions will prevail tomorrow as a broad surface high
settles over the ms valley. After some clearing early on, cloudiness
will begin to increase as moisture increases in the upper levels due
to developing SW flow aloft. Temperatures will remain a few degrees
below average areawide, especially in the delta where cloudiness
will develop quicker. Jpm3
Monday night into next weekend:
the forecast continues to look very wet through the long term
period with our main focus being on the potential for heavy rain
to cause mounting flooding issues (from both flash flooding and
eventual river flooding). Model consensus is pretty good that the
pattern will finally quiet down a bit after the coming weekend
but, of course, we've got a lot of stormy conditions to go through
before then.

Our weather pattern has already been rather unsettled across the
lower mississippi valley over the past few days, thanks to minor
disturbances interracting with a shallow baroclnic zone meandering
back and forth across the region. But, so far, moisture influx has
not been tremendous and synoptic lift induced by minor
disturbances has been relatively tame. But this pattern will
basically get way amped up starting Monday night as the north
american long wave pattern amplifies and our region will be right
in between a deepening upper trough in the western CONUS and a
stout "bermuda" high off the southeast CONUS coast. So the very
recent norm of oscillating frontal boundaries through the region
should continue, although now there will be more energy in short
wave pulses emanating out of the big trough to our west and
northward moisture transport out of the gulf and into the
baroclinic zone will be enhanced.

Late Monday night into Tuesday, the surface reflection of the
baroclinic zone should be to our south with a short wave aloft
prompting mostly isentropic showers and embedded thunderstorms
over our region. Rainfall should be heaviest across the arklamiss
delta during this period where rainfall amounts of a few inches
(with some locally higher amounts) will start to quickly ramp up
the flood threat.

Surface instability will probably not start to work into the
region from the south until late Tuesday night and through
Wednesday morning, ahead of the baroclinic zone beginning to push
back in from the northwest later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms over mainly the
southern half of zones late Tuesday night into the day Wednesday
where instability and wind shear will juxtapose for a brief time.

Fortunately, most of the showers and storms will likely be
anafrontal, which basically greatly reduces the threat for severe
weather. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of some
storms in the warm sector (ahead of the front) taking advantage
of available severe weather ingredients. That said, the main focus
will be much more on mounting rainfall totals, as opposed to
potential for severe weather. Expecting the locally heavy rainfall
potential to re-assert itself later Tuesday night and last at
least until late Wednesday, with heaviest rainfall during this
time still expected to be focused on northern and western zones
(coincident with our elevated flooding risk advertised in the hwo
and graphics).

After Wednesday details of what will eventually transpire are a
bit more muddled, but confidence is high that the dogged
baroclinic zone will oscillate back and forth through the region
at least one more time with a final major kick of upper level
energy catalyzing high moisture and at least marginal instability
over the weekend. The ground in many areas will be quite (or
completely) saturated at this point and areas rivers ans streams
will be rising. Our current hwo and graphics advertise elevated to
limited flood potential through Thursday with total rainfall
amounts in the elevated areas (north and west) expected to range
from 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts, through this
time. It is safe to assume some areas will get at least a few
inches more than these amounts after Thursday and before rain
likely shuts off late next weekend. We expect flood potential will
ramp up accordingly through the week, but confidence is somewhat
low at this point where threats will ultimately be highest by late
this week. This is why current graphics only focus on time
through Thursday, but do allude to additional problems will likely
manifest after that point.

As far as temperatures go, they will be tricky in consideration of
the meandering baroclinic zone in the region. The past few days
have shown the pitfalls of such a scenario. In short, expect
locations in SE ms to be warmest (and definitely above normal)
while locations in the arklamiss delta often remain on the cool
side of the boundary. Bb

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 38 57 41 59 67 1 58 82
meridian 40 58 41 58 71 1 49 78
vicksburg 37 54 42 57 39 1 59 86
hattiesburg 48 62 47 65 65 5 39 58
natchez 38 57 44 63 44 1 62 76
greenville 34 48 37 50 18 3 40 99
greenwood 33 52 38 54 46 2 40 96

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Jpm3 cme bb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Greenwood, Greenwood-LeFlore Airport, MS24 mi64 minN 510.00 miOvercast44°F42°F93%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from GWO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE9E6NE5SE6E4E6SE4SE5S10S5S8S10CalmN8NW6NE4NW3NW8NW5N6N7N6N4N5
1 day agoS3W3N5NW5NW8N7N8N7N6N7N7N8N6N8N6NE6NE63N5Calm3NE5NE6E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Columbus AFB, MS
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.