Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 3:23 PM EST (20:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 3:55AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 317 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight, then becoming ne 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming w. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
AMZ200 317 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will cross the waters this evening, followed by cooler high pressure through the middle of the week. Low pressure moving up the coast may bring unsettled conditions to the waters late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach, SC
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location: 33.81, -78.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201624
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1124 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A few light showers or a sprinkle may precede an approaching
cold front today. Cool and dry air will spread across the
carolinas Wednesday through thanksgiving as high pressure builds
from the west. Canadian high pressure will bring colder air
late in the week, while developing low pressure from the gulf
brings a rainy start to the weekend. Temperatures will warm up
briefly early next week, ahead of an approaching cold front.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am Tuesday... Cold front approaching from the west
will move across the area this afternoon and off the coast by
early evening. Mid-level trough helps drive the front east,
although the core of the trough and the coldest air remain north
of the area. Cold advection will follow the front with surge of
cooler air arriving early tonight. Questions remain concerning
potential for showers just ahead of the front this afternoon.

Timing bodes well for at least weak instability although low
level convergence lags the cold front (stronger convergence is
along the secondary front cold surge later tonight). There is
some PVA this afternoon, just ahead of the front as a weak
sheared shortwave moves across the area. Cannot rule out some
isolated light showers but not expecting a lot of measurable
rainfall. Inherited low chance pop and these values have been
maintained. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s, similar to
readings on mon. Cold advection starts up later tonight with
temps tumbling early wed. Most areas will be in the 30s by the
end of the period with far inland locations dipping into the mid
30s. Frost not really a concern given boundary layer winds and
low level dry air.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 338 am Tuesday... Chief headline on the table "dry and
seasonably cool" this period. A banquet of dry air aloft to
overspread the region as zonal high pressure travels west to
east. This high will be supplanted by northern stream canadian
air late Thursday, injecting a taste of the season with cold air
advection reinforced. Winds elevated, may inhibit frost early
Friday, but many inland sites could dip below the freezing mark
into daybreak. Freeze warnings are possible early Friday, prior
to the growing season officially ending december 1 when the
freeze and frost products are discontinued until spring. Rain-
free period abounding with a cornucopia of sunshine joined by
temperatures slight cooler than normal, leaving memories of an
extended summer a little farther away in the rear view mirror.

Thanksgiving morning, for those slated with outdoor tasks, a
nippy 36-39 degrees inland, low 40s near the icw and coasts.

Under copious sunshine Thursday, temperatures to climb into the
middle and upper 50s, bringing many thanks for warm kitchen
ovens that day. Winds will begin to increase from the ne, but
not until late Thursday, and into Friday, as a strengthening
wedge begins to anchor in.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 338 am Monday... High pressure migrates across the
northeast into fri, expect winds to slowly veer but remain
northeast. Overall, expect temps dropping down into the low to
mid 30s with freeze possible early Fri morning in places inland.

A wedge looks to be developing on Fri as cool and dry high
pressure extends down from the north as coastal trough warm
front becomes more pronounced. This should help to increase
clouds late Fri along the coast with temps warming in a more on
shore flow. By Fri night, a storm system moving across the
central CONUS will deepen with mid to upper trough pushing a
cold front east. Should see rain spreading northward as coastal
trough warm front lifts north and pushes farther inland. Models
also indicate low pressure developing along the front near the
central gulf coast. As this low moves northeast into and across
the carolinas Fri night into Saturday, should see some heavier
rain spread across the forecast area. May prove to be a high
shear low CAPE event with thunderstorms Fri night into Sat as
low tracks just west of the area, as well as a decent rainmaker
with QPF amounts exceeding upwards of an inch or two in
convection.

Drier air and clearing should make its way in on the
back end of this system as it lifts off to the north late sat,
leaving better weather for the latter half of the weekend. Temps
should warm into the weekend as warm front lifts north leaving
temps in the 60s to around 70. Should be a nice end to the
weekend with fair amount of sunshine on Sunday, but another
frontal system may affect Sun night into Monday.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 18z... Some light precipitation is possible this afternoon, but
should not affect aviation with ceilings and visibilities expected
to remainVFR. Winds will veer to the north northwest later this
afternoon as cold air advection commences. Tonight and Wednesday,
vfr with nearly clear skies. Northerly winds will continue.

Extended outlook...VFR to prevail next couple of days. Storm
system Friday night into Saturday could bring rain and
potential ifr MVFR conditions to the region.VFR Sunday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 338 am Tuesday... Southwest flow will increase today as
cold front approaches from the west and gradient tightens up.

Speeds peak right around 15 kt later this afternoon before the
cold front moves offshore by early evening. Cold advection ramps
up later tonight with offshore flow increasing to 15 to 20 kt
around midnight then slowly decreasing late in the period. Seas
build from 2 to 3 ft this morning to 3 to 4 ft for the afternoon
and evening. Offshore flow develops and then increases, helping
knock seas down to 2 to 3 ft late in the period. Currently does
not appear any headlines will be warranted during the period..

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night ...

as of 338 am Tuesday... An increasingly difficult marine period
to unfold because of mounting NE winds thanksgiving day onward
into Friday. Advisory flags will likely be flying by Thursday
for NE winds 20-25 kt gusting to 30 kt, rouging up seas into a
5-8 ft range by late Thursday, dominated by agitated wind-seas
and heavy chop. Small craft would find this a treacherous
environment overall and venturing on a sunny thanksgiving out to
sea is highly discouraged this year off the SE nc NE sc waters.

Icw navigation will face moderate to heavy chop Thursday night.

Wednesday morning offers a manageable marine window but even by
late Wednesday, winds will be on the uptick.

Long term Friday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Canadian high pressure will continue to
build down from the north as it migrates across the northeast
through fri. Expect a decent spike in winds and seas with sca
conditions likely. NE winds will shift around to the east and
then SE to south Fri night into Sat as coastal trough warm front
moves inland and north and cold front approaches from the west.

Low pressure will develop and move up through the carolinas
sat. Seas will rise into SCA thresholds once again, building fri
night into Sat in increasing on shore to southerly push with
advisory conditions expected.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 08
near term... Iii mas
short term... Mjc
long term... Rgz
aviation... 43
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 11 mi76 min WNW 14 G 18 62°F 63°F1015.1 hPa
41108 36 mi54 min 64°F3 ft
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 41 mi99 min W 6 64°F 1016 hPa56°F
WLON7 49 mi36 min 63°F 53°F1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC2 mi31 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F55°F76%1015.6 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC15 mi28 minWSW 910.00 miLight Rain64°F55°F73%1016.3 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC23 mi49 minWSW 57.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F55°F83%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW5SW5SW4SW4W6SW6SW6SW7W5W4W7W8
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmN3NE4NE3N3NE4N4NE3N5N4NW5N7N7N7N73NW5CalmS5
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3NE5NE3NE4NE5N5NE5NE4NE5NE7NE6NE6NE5E5SE4E6SE5E5

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, ICWW, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
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Tue -- 12:57 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:55 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:27 AM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:26 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:49 PM EST     3.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.61.42.22.83.23.22.92.41.91.30.80.60.61.11.82.52.932.82.41.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, west end, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
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Tue -- 03:55 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:21 AM EST     5.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:52 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:43 PM EST     4.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.42.73.94.85.35.24.63.72.61.60.90.71.12.13.34.24.854.63.72.61.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.