Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 5:27 AM   Moonset 7:39 PM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 219 Pm Pdt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Wed - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming S 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Thu - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Fri - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Fri night - W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 2 ft. Patchy fog. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 2 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 219 Pm Pdt Tue May 7 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1030 mb high was 550 nm nw of san fransisco and a 1003 mb low was near of las vegas. Gale force winds will affect the outer waters at times through tonight, with gusty winds spreading into portions of the inner waters this evening.

FXUS66 KLOX 080032 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 532 PM PDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
07/212 PM.

Gusty northwest winds will turn northeast Wednesday into Friday.
Generally clear skies will continue through the week except for some coastal low clouds and fog. Temperatures will remain around to just above normal through early next week, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s common.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...07/159 PM.

The current northwest winds still look to increase through the evening hours, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph (isolated to 55 mph)
focused over the northern mountains, the Antelope Valley, and southern Santa Barbara County. There is a small chance that winds will cross advisory levels in the Montecito Hills but if they do it should be fairly localized. The current suite of Wind Advisories will remain in play.

Cold air is starting to be deposited over the Great Basin, and will continue to over the next few days thanks to a large low pressure system over the Dakotas that will wobble to the west.
This will cause the winds to abruptly turn to northeasterly later tonight, and remain dominant during the night and morning hours through Friday (with onshore flow each late afternoon). These winds will peak in strength on Wednesday, then gradually decrease each day through Friday. During their peak, gusts should generally vary between 25 and 40 mph over the favored mountains and valleys of all counties, but especially over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Isolated gusts to 50 mph should be expected, but do not look widespread enough at this point to warrant any Wind Advisories. These winds also do not look potent enough to punch through the marine layer and down into the beaches. This means that there is still a window for some low clouds and fog each morning along the coast, which looks to expand in coverage each day as southeast winds strengthen. In fact, the pattern is right for a southerly surge on Thursday morning where any low clouds that form south of Point Conception moves north around the point and into the Central Coast.

Expect temperatures to climb tomorrow thanks to the offshore flow and clear skies. This is especially the case for the valleys, where our local climatological guidance suggests temperatures around 80 will be common in most valleys. Coastal areas will be at the mercy of the marine layer, but look to warm up as well since any clouds should clear by the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/208 PM.

Ensemble models have a range of outcomes over the weekend, concerning where the wobbling upper level low wants to go. The most likely outcome is for steady increase of onshore flow bringing more cool coastal clouds and gusty onshore winds over the interior. To what magnitude however is still on the table. The first half of next week, looks fairly benign, except for likely continued strengthening of the onshore flow over the mountains and interior, with further expansion of low clouds on the coastal side. There are some indications of some warming for the second half of next week with high pressure building in.

AVIATION
08/0031Z.

At 2300Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep, with an inversion top at 4300 ft and a temperature of 16 C.

Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF package. There is a 30% chance of no CIGs developing at KPRB, and a 30% of no CIGs for sites KLAX/KLGB/KSMO. There is also a 20% chance of CIGs forming at KBUR and KVNY, most likely in the IFR to low MVFR category if they do form. The timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. For KPMD and KWJF, there is a 40% chance of MVFR VSBYs in blowing dust through 04Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of cig changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20-30% chance of no cigs developing at all. An easterly wind component up to 8 knots is expected between 09Z to 16Z, with just a 10% chance of the east wind component reaching 10 kts during this time.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR to low MVFR CIGs forming between 12Z to 16Z.

MARINE
07/214 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, Gale force winds are expected and GALE WARNINGS are in effect. For Wednesday and Wednesday night, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected. For Thursday through Saturday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are likely this afternoon and evening. For Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon/evening hours. For Thursday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Otherwise across the southern Inner Waters, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Saturday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 88-349>353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Los Patos (highway bridge)
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Tue -- 04:44 AM PDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
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Tue -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:48 AM PDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:13 PM PDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:38 PM PDT     Moonset
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Long Beach
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Tue -- 03:41 AM PDT     -1.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
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Tue -- 09:51 AM PDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:09 PM PDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:39 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:41 PM PDT     Sunset
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Tue -- 09:19 PM PDT     6.30 feet High Tide
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