Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Conway, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:14PM Thursday November 15, 2018 6:00 AM EST (11:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:12PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 520 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect until 8 am est this morning...
Today..NE winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this morning, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft this afternoon. Rain with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then a chance of rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 520 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hazardous marine conditions will continue today as low pressure moves up the coast. High pressure will build over the waters starting Friday, continuing through the weekend into next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conway, SC
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location: 33.84, -79.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 151030 aaa
afdilm
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service wilmington nc
530 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move directly across the coastal carolinas
today, bringing widespread rain and rapid changes in
temperatures and winds throughout the day. Rain should taper off
later this afternoon as drier air builds in. A pair of dry cold
fronts next week should keep temperatures generally below
normal.

Near term through tonight
As of 530 am Thursday... Minor tweaks to the high temperature and
hourly temperature forecasts based on the 06z GFS and NAM which
still appear to have a better handle on the synoptic low
location off the ga sc coast compared to the hrrr rap models.

The immediate coastline of sc will briefly sneak into the warm
sector this morning as will the CAPE fear area by late morning.

Temps at ilm could breach 70 degrees, which opens up the
potential of surface-based CAPE values approaching 1000 j kg.

With 0-6 km bulk shear near 70 knots and bulk richardson values
potentially ending up in the sweet spot of 10-15, we'll be
watching this one closely for a shallow supercell or two to race
onshore along the warm front over the next six hours. -tra
discussion from 300 am follows...

all of the CWA remains in the cold sector of the evolving storm
system and will remain so the next several hours. The more
organized shield of precipitation resides to the west with some
convective cells offshore well to the south. Overall the system
is progressing much like we anticipated. The main rain shield
will remain to the west with the good diffluence aloft while the
coastal front trough and low pressure will allow some good rain
producing and possibly severe weather along the coast in a few
hours. The near term guidance shows this occurring starting
across southern coastal areas about 13 utc and with a convective
line moving quickly north and east through about 18 utc. We
continue to advertise categorical pops through this time
trending down this afternoon. SPC has elevated the risk to
slight for the coastal nc counties. Really no changes to the
temperature forecast as well with rising readings along the
coast this morning with much cooler temperatures inland.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Several strong shortwaves responsible
for today's storminess will race off the new england coast
Friday, followed by a flatter, more zonal upper level pattern
across the eastern half of the nation. A very positively-tilted
(practically oriented east-west) trough will sink into the
central plains states Saturday, but should remain well north of
the carolinas. The big story will be the blissfully dry weather
as precipitable water values fall to 0.25 to 0.45 inches.

Surface high pressure building across the gulf coast states on
Friday will shift northeastward into the mid-atlantic states on
Saturday. Dry northwest winds on Friday will become dry
northeast winds on Saturday.

Friday should be the cooler of the two days as the heart of the
post-frontal low-level cold pool moves across the carolinas.

Even with mostly sunny skies highs should hold in the 56-59
range. As winds diminish Friday night the stage will be set for
areas of frost to develop late across inland areas. Since a
killing freeze has not yet occurred this fall it's likely we'll
need a frost advisory as lows fall into the mid 30s inland, and
a few degrees warmer along the coast. 850 mb temps don't warm
appreciably between Friday and Saturday but the airmass below
850 mb should warm, leading to highs likely making it into the
low-mid 60s Saturday. A weak seabreeze could even develop along
the beaches Saturday afternoon.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Thru Monday, the longwave pattern
aloft paints a low amplitude trough covering nearly the entire
u.S. With the trough axis west of the ilm cwa. The flow aloft
will generally be westerly with equal inputs from the flow out
of canada, ie. Northern jet, and the subtropical jet or the
southern jet. As a result, no major storm systems through mon
with temps each day right at normal for this time of the year.

For Tue into Wed period, difficult to say if the longwave
pattern is in the midst of changing. Or, is it just potent mid
level impulses that dive out of canada to amplify the upper trof
resulting in a possible quick low pressure system affecting the
east coast in he mid to mainly late week period. This will be
our 1st shot of pcpn in almost a week if any of these S W mid-
level troughs materialize.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... Complex storm system will dictate conditions for a
good part of the TAF forecast period. Rainfall is filling in
nicely this morning with widespread MVFR conditions with a
smattering of ifr as well. This will continue to be the case
through for the next 18 hours or so. Rainfall will be prevalent
for the next 8-12 hours with low ceilings lingering into the
afternoon hours. Some improvement late this evening back into
mostlyVFR.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr lifting overnight thurs for possible
stratus and fog Fri morning. After this, drier,VFR conditions
Friday into the weekend. Dry cold frontal passage expected late
Monday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 530 am Thursday... Minor extension of the gale warning as
the strong winds will continue until the synoptic surface low
makes it way northward. Discussion from 300 am follows...

winds and seas are representing the gale warning nicely this
morning with a steady 30 knots or so at 41013 and seas just in
the double digits. These conditions will continue for several
more hours as low pressure continues to develop to the south and
move to the north. I did extend the warning for a few more
hours for the nc waters as the southeasterly flow ahead of the
low will remain elevated. Later today an offshore flow develops
with speeds of 15-20 knots trending down tonight. A small craft
advisory will be needed in the wake of the gale warning for
several hours.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Low pressure will move quickly
northeastward off coastal new england on Friday, making way for
high pressure along the gulf coast to build across the entire
east coast. Northwest winds will diminish during the day Friday,
but 15-20 kt winds Friday morning may maintain adverse
conditions for small craft. As the high moves into the mid-
atlantic states on Saturday, winds will veer north, then
northeasterly with speeds generally around 10 knots. Dry weather
is expected through the period.

In addition to local wind waves, NOAA wavewatch and nwps models
both indicate a rather substantial easterly 9-second swell will
continue through the weekend, averaging 3-4 feet in amplitude
out at the frying pan shoals buoy. Some of this swell energy
will be blocked from entering the coastal waters between cape
fear and myrtle beach by the shallow water on frying pan shoals
itself, but other portions of the coastal waters can expect
this swell to become the primary wave component by no later
than Friday night.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... With a rather relaxed sfc pg thruout
the period, winds will stay below 15 kt and quite possibly aob
10 kt for a portion of the time. This in turn will result in
short period wind driven waves that should not be a problem to
boaters. However, the 9+ second period ese ground swell will
likely become the dominant input to the significant seas
formula. Wavewatch3 indicates a 2 to 3 ft possibly up to 4 feet
ese ground swell at the advertised 9+ second periods.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 8 am est this morning for amz254-256.

Gale warning until 11 am est this morning for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Tra shk
short term... Tra
long term... Dch
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi53 min NE 21 G 29 53°F 65°F1017 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 35 mi76 min NE 19 56°F 1016 hPa55°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Conway Horry County Airport, SC4 mi86 minNE 15 G 1910.00 miLight Rain45°F44°F100%1017.3 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC12 mi65 minNE 15 G 2210.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F89%1016.6 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi68 minNE 19 G 2410.00 miLight Rain and Breezy49°F46°F90%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from HYW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW4N5N7NE6N3N5NE8
2 days agoN5N3N4N8NE8N4N4N6N6NE9CalmN5NE3CalmCalmS3SE5S4S3CalmW5CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Thu -- 02:22 AM EST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:27 PM EST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:47 PM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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110.90.9111.11.11.21.11.11.1111111.11.21.31.31.31.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Keysfield
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Thu -- 01:14 AM EST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:19 PM EST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:37 PM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.11.11.21.21.21.31.31.31.31.21.21.21.21.21.21.31.41.41.51.51.41.41.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.