Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Preston, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:06PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 9:23 AM CDT (14:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:24AMMoonset 6:22PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Preston, TX
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location: 33.84, -96.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 251123
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
623 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017

Aviation
Strong low level flow will be the rule today in advance of a
deepening upper trough and a cold front. A 50 to 60 kt southerly low
level jet should partially mix to the surface later this morning,
resulting in surface winds mainly in the 20 to 30 kt range.

Meanwhile, a strip of low clouds has developed south of the
metroplex, which will need to be watched. The current thinking is
that veering flow just off the deck should shunt the MVFR deck to
the east of TAF locations, though we may want to place a scattered
layer in the first few hours to the kact and kdal forecasts. It
does look like stratus will be more widespread as we head into
tonight, and CIGS have been added to the 26/06z time and beyond
(04z for kact).

Otherwise, a shift to northwest winds can be expected with fropa
Wednesday morning, and has been added to the extended dfw taf
accordingly. A stray shower along the front cannot be ruled out,
but it looks like convection will hold off until later in the day
when the front is well east of the TAF locations.

30

Prev discussion /issued 402 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017/
several challenges the rest of the week into weekend, as we deal
with two separate strong upper level systems and surface
boundaries. Today will continue to see our first vigorous upper
trough deepening across the rockies and into far northern mexico,
with strong southwest flow aloft likely continuing to keep our
elevated mixed layer (eml/capping inversion) very strong over
north and central texas. As this system deepens and slides
eastward toward the plains states, a deep surface low will shift
east across southwest kansas and the oklahoma/texas panhandles
this morning, thus allowing for a dryline to surge east into into
at least the u.S. 281 corridor, if not to between that highway and
i-35/35w. The WSR-88D profiler network indicates a pre-dawn llj
50-60 kts in the boundary layer. The expected warming
temperatures, strong pressure gradient, and unidirectional nature
of the south flow just above the surface will likely induce south
winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph east of the dryline. A
wind advisory has been hoisted from late morning through midnight
tonight, as the boundary layer should remain semi-coupled even
past dark, with winds diminishing with the approach of a cold
front overnight and early Wednesday morning. In addition to the
winds, breezy and hot temperatures will occur both just behind and
ahead of the surface dryline this afternoon. Highs reaching the
lower-mid 90s and low humidity values will result in an elevated
fire danger across western north texas this afternoon. Luckily,
greening of small vegetation and grasses should limit any critical
conditions and explosive grass fire growth.

After a windy/breezy Tuesday night, the first upper level trough
will move east progressively over the central/southern plains on
Wednesday, before exiting quickly to the east of our area
Wednesday night and Thursday. A pre-frontal surface trough and
cold front will move quickly through much of the area and into our
eastern counties by midday. The eml/capping inversion will be key
to timing of strong-severe thunderstorm development across mainly
far northeast and eastern counties by late morning/midday
Wednesday. A few isolated/elevated storms could occur beforehand
across the immediate red river valley, but think our far eastern
counties, mainly north of i-20 will be the initiation area. We
believe this area will see a 2-3 hour window for rapid development
of strong-severe storm at midday, before the upper level system
and cold front readily shift a broken line of severe storms east
of the CWA by mid-late afternoon. Main severe weather risk will be
large hail and damaging winds, but in these cases the tornado
threat is not zero. Brisk northwest winds 15-25 mph and gusty are
expected behind the cold front late Wednesday with quite the
temperatures difference of 65-75 degrees northwest areas to the
lower-mid 80s across central texas.

Winds will diminish readily after nightfall Wednesday evening, as
the cooler and dry airmass helps to decouple the surface to
boundary layer, along with surface high pressure settling across
the region readily overnight into Thursday morning. Thursday low
temperatures will fall into the 40s outside of immediate urban
areas of the dfw metro and possibly waco as light winds become
light southeast by sunrise Thursday. The cool/dry weather will be
short-lived however, as the very progressive weather pattern
continues and lifts the old cold front back rapidly as a warm
front into southern oklahoma and northwest texas. In its' wake,
breezy south winds will allow highs warming back into the 80s for
all but the immediate red river valley and northeast counties.

The breezy and mild conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with surface dew points returning back north quickly in
advance of our next system over the great basin and four corners
region of the southern rockies.

The increasing southwest flow aloft will once again strengthen
the eml/capping inversion and make for a very tricky forecast
convection-wise later in the day Friday. A surface dryline will
move into, or near our far western counties, while the old surface
warm front wavers on either side of the immediate red river and
northwest counties. Have maintained very low convective chances
near these boundaries, as a lead shortwave lifts northeast across
the oklahoma/texas panhandles late in the day. If, and that's a
big "if" lift can break the cap in these areas, it's likely
isolated and discrete strong-severe storms could erupt north of
i-20 and near the immediate dryline out west by late afternoon and
evening. This will be highly conditional based on the cap in
place.

As this second, deeper upper low/trough swings out of the
southern rockies/high plains Friday night into Saturday, large-
scale ascent will weaken the cap, especially across areas along
and north of i-20 for scattered-numerous showers and storms, with
likely a threat for strong to severe storms containing hail and
gusty/ damaging winds, along with some localized heavier rains
across the northern counties. A pre-frontal trough will arrive
into our far western counties by Saturday afternoon, with a cold
front overtaking this feature by Saturday night with the upper
trough swinging readily east across the southern plains. This will
likely end the severe weather threat from west to east by
midnight Saturday night into Sunday morning with brisk and cooler
conditions in the front's wake. Sunday will see cooler conditions
with winds diminishing with surface high pressure settling in. A
few showers may linger, but should be dry for the most part with
highs Sunday afternoon in the 60s north, lower 70s south. Otherwise,
the topsy-turvy pattern continues with dry conditions Sunday
night into the first half of next week. Breezy south winds return
by Tuesday with highs pushing back into the 80s once again.

05/

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 89 70 75 50 80 / 10 10 20 0 0
waco 88 71 83 49 82 / 10 10 10 0 0
paris 84 68 72 45 75 / 10 20 60 5 0
denton 89 66 73 46 78 / 10 10 20 0 0
mckinney 86 68 75 46 77 / 10 20 20 0 0
dallas 88 71 76 51 80 / 10 20 20 0 0
terrell 85 70 77 46 79 / 10 20 30 0 0
corsicana 86 70 81 48 81 / 10 20 20 0 0
temple 87 70 84 50 83 / 10 20 10 0 0
mineral wells 93 64 73 45 83 / 5 10 10 0 0

Fwd watches/warnings/advisories
Wind advisory from 10 am this morning to midnight cdt tonight
for txz092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

30/05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sherman/Denison, Grayson County Airport, TX8 mi29 minS 15 G 2410.00 miFair66°F57°F75%1000.3 hPa
Durant, Eaker Field Airport, OK14 mi29 minS 1110.00 miFair64°F57°F78%1000.7 hPa

Wind History from GYI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11
G16
S13S12S10
G15
S10S16S16
G22
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G22
SE11SE12S12SE14
G17
SE12SE14
G20
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S11S8S11S14S14S15
G21
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S12
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1 day agoN8N11NW12
G17
N9
G16
N11
G17
NW8
G18
N10
G17
N7
G17
N11N4NE4CalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmSE5SE5S7SE5CalmS5SE7
2 days agoNW15
G23
NW17
G20
N16
G24
N11
G19
NW15
G19
N17
G22
NW14
G21
NW12
G16
N10
G15
N7N6N8NW6N3NW4W3N4NW6W5W4CalmW4NW4NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.