Monday, September25, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Preston, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 7:18PM Monday September 25, 2017 1:56 PM CDT (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:17AMMoonset 10:01PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Preston, TX
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location: 33.84, -96.62     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 251800 aac
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
100 pm cdt Mon sep 25 2017

Low clouds moved north across the TAF sites this morning bringing
mostly MVFR ceilings, though kact has a couple of hours of ifr
ceilings. With daytime vertical mixing, the low ceilings had
broken up in the metroplex and had lifted toVFR levels at waco.

Vfr conditions will occur at all of the TAF sites through late
tonight. Expect low clouds to spread northward again before
daybreak Tuesday with bkn015 at waco starting around 09z with
some bkn009 possible 13-16z. Ceilings should improve toVFR around
17z. MVFR ceilings are expected to spread into the metroplex
around 13z before scattering out around 17z. Expect showers and
isolated thunderstorms to remain west of the i-35 corridor, west
of the TAF sites through most of the TAF period. Although not
mentioned in the TAF there will be a low chance of showers after
12z Tuesday. Winds will be southeast at 10 to 12 knots through the


Short term issued 308 am cdt Mon sep 25 2017
today and tonight
the main forecast concern through tonight will be ever slowly
increasing rain chances mainly west of i-35. Water vapor imagery
shows a large upper trough extending over much of the western u.S.

And into texas this morning. This large trough has several smaller
embedded vorticity maxima which will rotate through the main
trough over the next several days.

For today, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will
remain well west of our area. A persistent band of low and mid
level isentropic ascent will be in place across west texas
extending northward into western oklahoma and kansas. This area
is also on the eastern periphery of stronger forcing from the main
upper trough. Showers and thunderstorms should increase in
coverage through the day as stronger forcing for ascent spreads
through west texas. We may see some of this activity move into our
far western counties later this afternoon and we'll have the
highest pops generally west of a bowie to lampasas line. Lapse
rates are unimpressive and overall instability is weak through
tonight across the region, so the severe weather threat will be
low. Winds fields are modest for this time of year though and
oriented in a way that would support training convection. This is
most likely to occur west of our area, but nonetheless does bear
watching. Any training convection could produce locally heavy
rainfall. Temperatures today will continue to be several degrees
above normal and could be impacted by increasing cloud cover.

We'll still be looking at highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s

Eastward progression of the upper trough is expected to be slow
and the main cold front associated with this system is expected to
only make slow southward progress into oklahoma overnight
tonight. This means the best rain chances will remain well west of
i-35 through tonight.


Long term issued 308 am cdt Mon sep 25 2017
Tuesday onward
the deep upper low across the western us will remain there
through midweek, generating multiple waves of showers and
thunderstorms across eastern new mexico and west texas. In
addition, its associated cold front will slowly approach north
texas and will eventually increase our rain chances Wednesday
through Friday. However, the most widespread rainfall and highest
totals are expected to remain west of the forecast area. Increased
cloud cover and cooler air behind a pair of fronts will result in
some cooler (near normal) temperatures, especially for the end of
the week and the upcoming weekend.

On Tuesday, the front should still be located just wnw of the
forecast area, draped roughly from san angelo to oklahoma city.

Widespread showers and a couple thunderstorms should be ongoing
along this axis of increased lift, some of which will drift into
our western counties Tuesday afternoon and evening. As activity
moves east however, it will slowly decay as it outruns forcing
from both the front and broad ascent ahead of the upper trough.

Lapse rates will also be very meager, and much of the rain
showers may be lightning-free due to the lack of
instability forcing. As will be the case for much of the week,
locations west of i-35 will have the highest rain chances, with
some spots to the east remaining hot and mostly dry.

Similar trends should be expected on Wednesday, although by this
time, the slow-moving front will have finally drifted into north
texas. This front should bisect the forecast area into a cooler
and rainy western half with a continued warm and mostly dry
eastern half. Despite the front being in the vicinity, we'll still
be lacking upper dynamic forcing as the trough will begin
retrograding westward with upper ridging building in to take its
place. As a result, there will be a battle between lift from weak
convergence along the front against some broad subsidence from
building heights aloft. This should act to limit the extent of
shower thunderstorm activity through Wednesday and even into
Thursday with the highest rain chances continuing to be west of
i-35. A similar setup should still exist on Thursday with the
front moving just slightly farther southeast, but still positioned
within the forecast area. Since rain rates amounts are expected
to remain on the lighter side, am not anticipating much in the
way of heavy rain or flooding issues at this point; these
concerns should be confined to locations west of the forecast

Rain chances will begin tapering off to the south on Friday as
the front finally sinks southward. This will be due to flow aloft
becoming more zonal, causing the ejecting shortwave to allow a
secondary push of cooler and drier air to move southward through
the plains. Lingering showers and a few storms will be possible
through central tx most of the day Friday, while rain chances
shut down across north tx with the arrival of drier air. This
scenario would mean a fairly pleasant early fall weekend for most
of the region with temperatures near normal and mostly dry


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 90 74 91 73 86 5 10 30 20 40
waco 89 72 91 72 87 10 10 30 30 30
paris 88 69 90 70 88 5 5 20 10 20
denton 89 72 88 69 82 10 10 40 30 40
mckinney 88 71 91 71 85 5 5 20 20 30
dallas 90 75 92 74 87 5 5 30 20 30
terrell 89 71 92 72 88 5 5 20 10 20
corsicana 89 71 92 72 90 5 5 20 10 20
temple 88 71 88 71 86 10 10 30 30 30
mineral wells 88 70 85 66 78 20 30 50 50 50

Fwd watches warnings advisories

58 30

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sherman/Denison, Grayson County Airport, TX8 mi82 minSSE 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F67°F55%1013.2 hPa
Durant, Eaker Field Airport, OK14 mi62 minS 810.00 mi86°F64°F49%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from GYI (wind in knots)
1 day agoSE5SE10SE7E10
2 days agoSE11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.