Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Preston, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:29PM Friday May 26, 2017 12:37 AM CDT (05:37 UTC) Moonrise 6:18AMMoonset 8:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Preston, TX
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location: 33.84, -96.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 260340
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
1040 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017

Aviation
Fog low cloud satellite imagery shows a growing region of stratus
along the middle texas coast spreading quickly north. The current
expectation is that MVFR ceilings should reach the waco area
07-08z before moving into the dfw metroplex around 09z. Conditions
should improve toVFR around midday Friday, then repeat
themselves Friday night Saturday morning as another 925 mb
moisture surge takes place. Otherwise, the narrow pressure
gradient will persist for the next day or so, keeping strong
southerly winds going through the end of the forecast period.

30

Prev discussion issued 416 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017
hot conditions will continue over the next several days with near
100 degree ambient and apparent temperatures possible. There will
be a highly conditional risk for showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday as a dryline and cold front approach. The better risk for
showers and thunderstorms is expected late Saturday and into
Sunday when a late-season cold front will slowly slide through the
area. This frontal boundary is expected to stall across central
tx and the hill country for the latter half of the holiday
weekend. This boundary may also serve as a focus for additional
rain chances through next week.

Low level moisture continues to lift northward into north and
central tx this afternoon as surface dewpoints have steadily
increased into the upper 50s and low 60s. A modestly thick veil of
cirrus continues to overspread from the west along the northern
periphery of the h5 subtropical ridge located to the south.

Despite the general increase in high level cloudiness, a south-
southwest component to the breezy surface wind speeds has still
allowed for toasty conditions with temperatures in the upper 80s
and mid-90s across much of north and central tx.

For tonight, a very mild night is anticipated as 925mb winds
crank up to around 45 to 50 knots. Forecast soundings do indicate
that low level thermal fields will still support some mixing
despite the onset of nocturnal cooling. The 925mb winds are
forecast to decrease after sunrise on Friday. The increasing low
level moisture and resultant cloud cover combined with the breezy
conditions should result in low temperatures only falling into the
low to mid 70s. While stratus will be on the increase, little to
no precipitation (outside of perhaps a sprinkle or two early
Friday morning) is anticipated as strong capping and mid-level
ridging continues.

For Friday, precipitation-free conditions will prevail, despite
the increase in low level moisture and the closer proximity of the
dryline to north and central tx. This lack of rain will largely
be due to the stout capping remaining in place across the area as
southwesterly flow aloft continues. Ahead of the dryline, it'll
feel quite oppressive. The culprit will be the lack of mixing and
loosening of the surface pressure gradient (resulting in weaker
wind speeds). These factors coupled with continued moistening
below the temperature inversion will result in heat index values
in the 100 to 103 degree range with ambient air temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s. I contemplated an impact- based heat
advisory for portions of north tx due to the myriad of outdoor
activities expected for the start of the holiday weekend, but
there's still too much uncertainty with regards to the overall
quality of low level moisture. A majority of the dynamic nwp
appears to be slightly overdone moisture wise, as they advertise
mid to upper 70 degree dewpoints. A consensus of statistical based
guidance appears more realistic and advertises low to mid 70
degree dewpoint air overspreading north and central tx. Heat
advisory or not, individuals with outdoor plans on both Friday and
Saturday need to ensure that they remain hydrated with water and
take frequent breaks in cooler locations to avoid any heat related
illnesses.

In the wake of the dryline, southwest winds will be more
favorable for another day of downslope warming. This in
conjunction with deeper mixing and lower humidity will allow for
slightly more comfortable conditions for areas along and west of a
cisco to jacksboro to bowie line on Friday. It will still remain
hot, however, across these locations with temperatures pushing the
century mark. Fire weather concerns grass fire spread in the wake
of the dryline should remain limited as wind speeds are forecast
to remain below critical thresholds.

Hot and humid conditions will continue on Friday night and into
the day on Saturday as the dryline retreats back towards the west
during the overnight hours. There could be a few streamer showers
across eastern southern zones as low level warm air advection
commences on Saturday morning. Overall probabilities look too low
to include in the forecast at this time, but I will advertise
10-15 silent pops across this area. The dryline should shift
towards the east quickly through the day nearing a wichita falls
to graham to breckenridge line during the afternoon hours. A very
moist boundary layer will be strongly capped through the day which
should keep thunderstorm chances low through the morning and
afternoon hours. The low level wind field also appears to veer
through the day as greater surface pressure falls occur across
northeastern oklahoma. With a majority of the large scale ascent
forecast to remain to the north, veered low level flow and a
strong cap, thunderstorm chances appear bleak in the afternoon
hours. However, the large reservoir of moisture coupled with steep
lapse rates and decent deep layer wind shear create a
conditionally unstable atmosphere across much of north tx. If a
storm is able to breach the cap, it will have the potential to
become severe very quickly, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. While the overall surface wind field is
expected to remain veered, there is a non-negligible amount of 0-3
km CAPE and so the tornado potential will need to be monitored.

That said, the large hail and damaging winds will be the front
runners in the storm hazards department. We do not expect a
complete washout on Saturday afternoon and even most of Saturday
evening.

Late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning appears to be the
best opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms as
models have slowed the progression of the late-season cold front.

While the time of day would not be ideal for severe weather, there
appears to remain a large amount of instability and wind shear
aloft for strong to severe thunderstorms during the overnight
hours. The main hazards will remain large hail and strong winds,
especially if thunderstorms can remain rooted in the boundary
layer. With the front progressing quite slowly, there may be a
concern for some heavy rainfall. At this point in time, there is
some uncertainty in the exact areal coverage of convection, but if
rain storms are widespread and slow moving, a flood flash flood
threat may materialize. Rain chances look to linger during the
latter half of the weekend and into memorial day, especially
across central tx. For now, will continue with 30-40% pops as the
850mb front lingers near the i-20 corridor. A repeat of last
Sunday is quite possible with elevated convection developing near
this elevated boundary. For now, we will keep tabs on this
potential as there still remains some uncertainty with the
placement of the surface and 850mb fronts.

For next week, the active pattern looks to continue as the old
frontal boundary remains across the region. With the ample
moisture in place and a slow moving upper trough to the west (with
likely multiple perturbation rippling through the flow),
generally broad brushed rain chances were kept in the forecast.

Given the time of year, there may be a risk for strong to perhaps
severe storms, so stay tuned to the forecast.

24-bain

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 75 94 77 92 74 0 5 10 20 40
waco 75 92 76 92 75 0 10 10 10 20
paris 69 88 74 87 71 0 5 10 20 50
denton 74 93 76 92 72 0 5 10 20 40
mckinney 73 91 76 91 73 0 5 10 20 40
dallas 76 93 77 92 75 0 5 10 20 40
terrell 72 90 76 90 73 0 10 10 20 40
corsicana 73 91 76 90 74 0 10 10 10 30
temple 74 92 76 92 74 0 10 10 10 10
mineral wells 73 100 75 96 72 0 5 10 20 30

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

30 91


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sherman/Denison, Grayson County Airport, TX8 mi62 minS 15 G 2010.00 miFair77°F58°F52%1003.7 hPa
Durant, Eaker Field Airport, OK14 mi42 minS 14 G 2010.00 miFair75°F60°F61%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from GYI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW9
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2 days agoS17CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6
G15
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CalmNW14
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NW9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.