Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 4:44 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 051053 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 553 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

The heaviest of the rainfall has now pushed into southeast Texas this morning with the back edge of the precipitation east of I-35 and across our eastern counties. Widespread heavy rainfall overnight resulted in numerous instances of flash flooding and several flash flood warnings remain in effect for the ongoing impacts. With conditions improving later this morning, we should see water start to recede. A weak frontal boundary will remain draped across our far southern counties through this afternoon and this may serve as a focus for additional isolated storm development, but overall chances are around 20%. Any additional rainfall in areas that saw overnight rains would be susceptible to additional flooding. Given the low probabilities of additional storms, no additional extension of the flood watch is required at this time.

Dunn

Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday night/

Thunderstorms will continue to move across North and Central Texas overnight. Most of the storms have stayed below severe limits but we did received a few hail reports. We have seen impressive rainfall totals across portions of West Central Texas this evening with some amounts exceeding 5 inches in a few hours.
The highest total we have seen through late evening was almost 8 inches of rain at Hamilton. The eastern half of the CWA has not seen much rain this evening but it will come overnight with the arrival of a shortwave. We still anticipate the heaviest rainfall south of I-20 near and just north of a stalled frontal boundary, but with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches region- wide, just about any location could receive appreciable rainfall.
Therefore, we will keep a Flood Watch in place for the entire CWA overnight through Sunday morning. Storms will end from west to east Sunday morning with increasing subsidence on the backside of the departing shortwave. However, with the surface boundary stalling across parts of Central Texas and deep moisture remaining in place, we could still see a few showers and storms developing Sunday afternoon, especially across our Central Texas counties.
Any storms that do manage to form should dissipate during the evening.

Saturated ground and a relatively light wind Sunday night will promote fog development. Since low clouds will also be present, we don't anticipate widespread dense fog, but the visibility in some spots could fall to around 1 mile.

Temperatures tonight and Sunday night will remain mild due to plenty of moisture and clouds with lows staying in the 60s. Highs Sunday will slowly warm into the 70s to around 80 degrees.

79

LONG TERM
/Issued 255 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024/ /Next Week Through Mother's Day Weekend/

On Monday, a negatively-tilted upper-level trough will eject northeastward across the Northern and Central Plains. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s coupled with mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will drive strong instability (MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) ahead of an eastward mixing dryline. Deep boundary layer mixing coinciding with the strong height falls overspreading the Plains, especially across Kansas and Oklahoma, should eventually overcome any remaining capping by the late afternoon. Convective coverage is likely to be lower the further south you go due to weaker ascent and a lingering cap. Any storms that manage to develop, particularly north of I-20, should quickly become severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

By Tuesday, an occluded vertically stacked low will be present over the Northern Plains with zonal flow stretching across the Central CONUS. At the surface, a trailing cold front will begin to sweep across western Kansas and Oklahoma while a dryline lingers near the Texas Panhandle. In response to additional pressure falls in the lee of the southern Rockies, surface winds will veer to the southwest on Tuesday. A byproduct of the warm/dry advection in the 850-700mb layer, temperatures will climb above climate normals Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will be nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central Texas each afternoon. This bout of late spring heat will be brief however, as a favorably timed shortwave trough and nearby dryline/cold front will bring additional storm chances and cooler post-frontal air to the region mid to late week.

On Wednesday, strong diurnal heating/destabilization coupled with forcing for ascent (from a combination of low-level convergence and larger-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave) will result in convective development along the dryline. Additionally, the cold front moving through southeastern Oklahoma may become another focus for convective development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings east of the projected dryline position (near the I-35 corridor) indicate the presence of strong instability and deep layer shear. This environment will be favorable for severe weather with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

This unsettled pattern will linger through Thursday as a second shortwave moves overhead while the cold front continues to slowly sag southward into Central and Southeast Texas. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. In the wake of the departing upper trough and surface cold front, surface ridging will amplify over the Central CONUS Friday and Saturday bringing a seasonable but dry start to Mother's Day weekend with highs in the mid 70s.
Our next chance of precipitation may not be too far off however, as a weak shortwave trough approaches from the west on Sunday.

12

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Showers and thunderstorms have pushed to the east of the major airports this morning and additional storm chances this afternoon are pretty low. We will have to contend with some MVFR cigs in the wake of this rainfall, although conditions will improve this afternoon. Widespread MVFR cigs are expected again tonight with some patchy fog developing as well.

Winds will be a little chaotic this morning with a general easterly direction. These should prevail out of the southeast later today and tonight.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 67 83 72 88 / 30 5 20 20 5 Waco 77 67 81 71 87 / 40 10 10 10 0 Paris 74 64 80 70 86 / 100 10 20 30 5 Denton 76 65 82 69 87 / 20 5 20 20 5 McKinney 76 65 81 71 87 / 60 5 20 20 5 Dallas 78 67 83 72 89 / 40 5 20 20 5 Terrell 77 66 81 70 86 / 80 10 10 20 5 Corsicana 79 68 83 72 88 / 80 10 10 10 5 Temple 78 67 83 71 88 / 40 10 10 5 0 Mineral Wells 77 66 83 67 88 / 10 5 20 10 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ093>095-104>107- 119>123-134-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

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