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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 204 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw to W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw to W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 3 to 5 ft at 7 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Sat night - W winds 15 to 25 kt, strongest western portion, becoming 10 to 15 kt late. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - Western portion, W winds 30 to 35 kt becoming 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, W winds 15 to 20 kt becoming 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Sun night - W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the evening, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 9 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft dominant period 9 seconds after midnight. Mon - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.

PZZ600 204 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1029 mb high was centered 900 nm W of point conception. A 1005 mb thermal low was centered just S of las vegas. Strong to gale force winds will continue into the weekend in the northern and outer waters, with gusty winds likely across the entire waters starting Sat afternoon.

FXUS66 KLOX 022126 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 226 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
02/145 PM.

Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning. Increasing onshore flow as well as greater coverage of night and morning low clouds and fog will bring cooler temperatures to all areas Friday through Sunday. An unseasonably cold storm system will brush the area to the north this weekend with a chance for light precipitation later Saturday into Sunday. A warming and drying trend will develop next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...02/207 PM.

Temperatures today were overall fairly similar to Wednesday despite the offshore trends up north and the strong eddy that developed off the LA Coast last night. Interior areas (mountains and far interior valleys) did experience 3-6 degrees of warming with some additional lowering of humidities.

Going forward, the trends are decidedly cooler through the weekend as another late system upper low moves into northern California Saturday. Models have come to a good consensus on the track, moving it inland north of the Bay area before sliding south along the eastern Sierra Sunday. This track, though still mostly inland, has enough southerly over-water trajectory to create some light rain (around a quarter inch) across the Central Coast later Saturday into Sunday. Less certainty on the southern extent of rain but ensembles indicate just very light precip amounts (under a tenth of an inch) south of Pt Conception. In the meantime, expect to see increasing marine layer stratus Friday and especially Saturday with cooler temperatures.

Increasing onshore flow will lead to increasing west to southwest, especially Saturday afternoon across the mountains and deserts.
May need some low end wind advisories for those areas.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...02/217 PM.

The upper low will exit the area by Sunday night leading to warming temperatures Monday (3-6 degrees). Onshore flow will be much weaker and forecast gradients indicate the potential for some breezy north winds in the mountains and across southern Santa Barbara County early next week. After the warm up on Monday temperatures are expected to stay pretty steady next week with just minor day to day variations. Will likely have some marine layer clouds returning to coastal areas by mid week. Otherwise it looks like a fairly mundane weather pattern next week with very minimal impacts.

AVIATION
02/1953Z.

At 1844Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 ft deep with an inversion top at 5000 ft and a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs and KPRB, moderate confidence elsewhere. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 20% chance of IFR-MVFR cigs at KSBP after 10Z and a 30% chance of VFR conds through the period at KSMX. For sites south of Point Conception, cigs could arrive as IFR upon arrival, then lift to MVFR.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. Cigs could arrive as low as BKN008 and will lift through the period. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 7-8 kt 09Z-15Z Fri.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, with a 30% chance of cigs will arrive as early as 07Z tonight.

MARINE
02/133 PM.

In the outer waters, an extended period of gusty winds are expected with periods of Gale Force possible through much of next week. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected to increase to Gales (70-80% chance) this afternoon, then continue thru late tonight. Winds will likely drop to SCA levels late tonight thru Fri afternoon, then Gales are likely for the waters north of Point Conception (60-70% chance) late Fri afternoon thru late Fri night. Winds will drop Sat morning, possibly even below SCA levels, but seas will remain at SCA levels. SCA level winds are expected Sat afternoon thru Mon, with a 40% chance of Gales Sun afternoon/evening.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds and seas will continue thru late tonight. Then, SCA level winds are likely during the afternoon/eve hours Fri, Sun, and Mon (60-70% chance), with a 40-50% chance Sat afternoon/eve.

In the SBA Channel, SCA level winds are likely in western portions of the channel during the late afternoon thru late night hours today and Fri (50% chance), and in most of the SBA Channel during the late afternoon thru late night hours Sat thru Mon. There is a 20% chance of gales Sun afternoon/eve.

In the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in NW portions (from Anacapa Island to Malibu) during the late afternoon/eve hours today and Fri. SCA level winds are likely during the late afternoon thru late evening hours Sat thru Sun, especially in western portions, then there is a 40% chance Mon.
There is a 20% chance of gales Sun afternoon/evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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