Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:01PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 6:38 PM PDT (01:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:59AMMoonset 1:05PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 252343
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
443 pm mst Tue jun 25 2019

Update Updated aviation forecast discussion.

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to gradually build across the desert
southwest this week resulting in steadily warming temperatures, and
slightly above normal readings returning by the end of the week. Dry
weather will also continue along with occasionally breezy
conditions, but signs of rainfall in the immediate future.

Discussion
Subtropical ridging remains supplanted well into mexico this
afternoon as pronounced troughing and deep negative height anomalies
are positioned off the pacific NW coast. Within the extension of the
west coast trough, a weak PV anomaly and jet streak were supporting
a slug of upper level moisture streaming into the region. Otherwise,
better quality boundary layer moisture is far removed from the
region with deep convection even lacking through northern and
central mexico.

For the remainder of the week, a more amplified CONUS pattern will
develop in response to approaching western trough and downstream
atlantic blocking. Strong positive height anomalies will build into
the southern and central plains with a nearly stationary ridge axis
extending back into SE arizona. H5 heights will steadily increase
through the weekend peaking somewhere in a 591-594dm range. Guidance
output range is very narrow yielding excellent confidence
temperatures will languish near average heading into the weekend,
then only potentially edge slightly above average during the
weekend. There is a notable wildcard during the weekend as the
operational GFS suggests extensive mid and upper tropospheric
moisture flowing into the region (likely blow off from an east
pacific tropical disturbance). Should this come to fruition, the
diurnal range may be narrowed in spite of warming temperatures
aloft. Regardless, the orientation of the ridge axis ensure dry sw
flow within the boundary layer and higher theta-e air trapped along
the new mexico border (and even limited moisture into sonora).

By the middle of next week, the operational GFS shifts the
subtropical high a little further to the northwest across the desert
southwest with some semblance of inverted troughing over texas.

There are indications in this model of boundary layer moisture and
total column pwat increases, especially for SE az; though closer to
south-central az, forecast soundings indicate little more than
meager 7 g kg mixing ratios. However, this operational member is
largely an outlier as compared to the majority of naefs members and
recent operational ECMWF iterations where the h5 high center drifts
back towards sonora. The most likely outcome points towards
persistence of dry westerly flow across the majority, if not
entirety CWA with only a marginally better setup for deep convection
over the white mountains and far SE arizona. Eventually, outflows
and moisture seeps will foster better 8-10 g kg boundary layer
mixing ratios, but the convergence of evidence points towards this
not happening until the end of next week at the earliest.

Aviation Updated at 2345 utc.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
there are no major aviation weather concerns. For tonight, winds
will follow typical diurnal directional patterns becoming lighter
after sunset and easterly overnight. Expect a similar diurnal
pattern tomorrow although there may be a few hours of southerly
breezes with some gusts (most likely below 20 kts) between 18z-22z
before becoming westerly in the afternoon. Smoke from nearby
wildfires east of phoenix are not likely to create any slantwise
visibility issues.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
there are no major aviation weather concerns. The winds will
follow typical diurnal trends at kipl with some evening breezes.

Southerly winds with some breezes will continue into tonight for
kblh and other terminals along the colorado river.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Friday through Tuesday:
seasonably warm and dry weather will persist over all the districts
through the beginning of next week. Ridge top and gap winds will
occasionally be breezy during the afternoon hours with SW gusts
around 25 mph common. Minimum relative humidity values will mostly
fall into a 10-15% range with generally poor (locally fair)
overnight recovery. The winds and humidity combined with very dry
fuels will frequently result in elevated fire weather conditions
during this period.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not expected.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Mo sawtellte
aviation... Deems
fire weather... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46242 - Camp Pendleton Nearshore, CA (043) 99 mi41 min 65°F3 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi47 minWNW 310.00 miFair98°F46°F17%1004.3 hPa

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW3N5NW12NW9NW9NW10N4N5CalmNE4CalmCalmSE54S53S5SE6556CalmW3
1 day agoS65N4N7N9NW8NW6NW8NW7NW7NW10CalmN6Calm43SE5----SE9
G17
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2 days agoNW9NW12NW13
G22
NW14NW12NW10N10N7N7N10NE4CalmCalmNW6NW7N5S5S73CalmS6--SE7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.