Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:39PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 2:26 AM PST (10:26 UTC) Moonrise 2:54PMMoonset 3:13AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 181024
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
324 am mst Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
A clearing trend will continue today, though it will be slightly
cooler than Monday. A warming trend will then develop Wednesday and
continue through late week as high pressure builds across the western
states. Temperatures will remain above normal through at least early
next week. Thereafter, a pacific low pressure system will bring a
chance of precipitation and cooler conditions to the desert
southwest.

Discussion
Clearing trend will continue early this morning as a weak low
pressure system continues moving east away from the desert
southwest. A few spots around the valley reported rainfall last
evening, however amounts were generally quite light with sky harbor
airport recording a trace of precipitation. A northwesterly flow in
the wake of the trough will result in temperatures slightly cooler
than those observed Monday across much of southern and eastern
arizona.

A warming trend is expected through late week as the pattern becomes
amplified across the CONUS and a strong ridge builds across the
intermountain west. Naefs 500 mb height percentiles exceeding the
90th percentile suggests well above normal temperatures are likely.

Latest ECMWF eps MOS indicates high temperatures may even approach
records in phoenix Thursday (78 deg in 1954) and Friday (77 deg in
1985). Latest models are in good agreement that the flow will become
more zonal during the weekend as a series of weak low pressure
systems pass by to the north. This will result in cooler conditions,
though temperatures will generally remain above normal.

Consensus among the extended model guidance points to a more
favorable storm track developing early next week. Timing remains a
bit uncertain, though several gfs ECMWF ensemble members indicate a
chance of light precipitation. Forecast pops were weighted heavily
towards the national blend, which yield 20-30% across the phoenix
area next Tuesday night.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
weak weather disturbance continues to move east across the greater
phoenix area this evening. Cloud bases have thickened and lowered
with widespread CIGS mainly AOA 10k feet and above. There may be
isolated spots where CIGS drop to around 7k feet in a light shower
but we will mostly keep those lower values out of the tafs for now.

Updated kiwa to add vcsh along with a 7k foot cig for the next few
hours. Expect clearing from the west with mid decks becoming
scattered by 09z or so and continued clearing leaving mostly sunny
skies by Tuesday morning. Winds will stay on the light side with
weak west winds returning to the east by midnight or shorty
thereafter, with east winds to shift back west after 21z or so in
the afternoon. No significant aviation concerns for at least the
next 24 hours.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
in the wake of a passing weather disturbance expect generally clear
skies and continued light winds over the western deserts rest of
tonight and into the day on Tuesday. Will continue to see lots of
light variable or light west winds at kipl and winds will favor the
north at kblh with speeds less than 10kt. No aviation concerns for
at least the next 24 hours.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Wednesday through Sunday:
strong high pressure will affect the region during the first part
of the period with weak troughing moving in by the weekend. Well
above normal temperatures will last through the bulk of the period
with Thursday seeing the highest readings with gradual cooling
into the weekend. Dry conditions will persist through the period
under generally light winds. Min rh values will mostly fall in a
20-25% range each day with little variation. Overnight recoveries
will be good to excellent throughout the period.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Hirsch
aviation... Cb
fire weather... Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi34 minN 09.00 miFair45°F36°F71%1020.1 hPa

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Last 24hrW7NE4W4CalmCalmS3CalmN4CalmCalmE5SE7SE6SE4SE4SW3N3NW3W3W4N4NW3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmW3NW3NW4CalmCalmN4N3NW4CalmS5SE9S6CalmN3NW3N4NW3CalmN3NW5SW4N4
2 days agoW5N4N5CalmCalmW5CalmCalmNW5CalmNW3CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3N4N4CalmN5NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.