Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Calabash, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:55PM Thursday April 25, 2019 10:19 AM EDT (14:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:14AMMoonset 10:28AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 920 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 920 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will dominate the area today. A cold front approaches on Friday and moves through Friday evening, with small craft advisory conditions and shifting winds expected. High pressure returns for Saturday before another front impacts the area later Sunday and early Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calabash, NC
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location: 33.86, -78.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 251320
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
920 am edt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will remain in control today with warm, dry and
breezy conditions. An approaching front will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. High
pressure returns for the weekend. Another cold front crosses the
region late Sunday, although rainfall is unlikely with this
front. High pressure will return to the area next week with
temperatures a little above normal.

Near term through Friday
As of 915 am Thursday... Dry as well this evening as a cold
front and mid-level energy approach from the west. Slowed down
the onset of precip a bit, with a start time for iso-sct showers
after 2am. Low temps in the mid upr 60s.

Frontal boundary still progged to cross the area Friday. SPC has the
fa in a marginal risk for severe storms, with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts as low-level lapse rates are quite steep.

Despite this, sfc winds are out of the SW and instability aloft is
lacking so not expecting widespread severe wx. Pops 70% everywhere.

High temps in the upr 70s to lwr 80s.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 3 am Thursday... Mid-level trough axis overhead Fri night will
usher any convection offshore by mid evening. Held onto lingering
precip chances for the first part of the period, but by midnight or
so deep northwest flow and post trough subsidence will dry things
out. Precipitable water drops to almost 0.30 inch early Sat with
skies rapidly clearing. Cold advection sets up, but mixing will keep
lows within sight of climo. Most areas will be in the lower 50s.

High pressure building in from the west Fri night into Sat is
shifted south by flattening mid-level flow later Sat into Sat night.

Deep dry air and northwest flow keeps skies clear Sat and adds a bit
of a downslope component. Highs end up right around climo with
decent cold advection being offset by abundant sunshine and
compressional heating. Elongated ridge axis shifts offshore sat
night with weak return flow setting up under zonal flow aloft. Temps
bounce back above climo Sat night with lows in the mid to upper
50s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 3 am Thursday... Weak cold front moves into the area late sun,
with minimal disruption to flow aloft. In fact mid-level pattern
remains pretty flat and do wonder if the front ends up stalled north
of the area. Surface high off the coast starts to expand back toward
the coast Mon and by Tue 5h ridge starts to build north. All signs
point to a dry period with only a slight chance of isolated showers
late sun.

-weak cold front moves toward the area later sun, becoming
little more than a wind shift Sun night.

-front starts to dissipate Mon as bermuda high expands west
-temps above climo for much of the period, highs Mon could be
the only exception if the front moves south of the area.

Aviation 13z Thursday through Monday
As of 12z...VFR throughout the period. Cirrus clouds increasing
throughout the day today accompanied by ssw winds 10-20 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots (more likely along the coast). Overnight, cloud
decks begin to lower ahead of a cold front with -shra possible by
the end of the period. Any showers that develop before 12z will be
isolated and light in intensity. Mid-level moisture will be lacking,
so it may take a while for CIGS below 10k ft to materialize.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions to persist. Could see MVFR on fri
as low pressure crosses the carolinas.

Marine
As of 330 am Thursday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions today
into tonight with high pressure centered SE of the area and a cold
front west of the area. 10-15 kt SW winds this morning increase to
15-20 kt this aftn tonight with seas up to 3-4 ft. Pressure gradient
increases just ahead and with the FROPA Friday Friday evening, so
have issued a small craft advisory for this period for winds up to
25 kt and seas up to 6-7 ft.

Strong offshore flow in the wake of a cold front and associated mid-
level trough will likely maintain small craft advisory conditions,
mainly seas over 6 ft, across the waters into early sat. Winds back
from northwest Sat morning to southwest in the afternoon as the
center of the high slips south of the area. Winds drops under 10 kt
sat with seas also trending down. As early as daybreak Sat seas will
be 2 to 4 ft, dropping to 2 ft or less in the afternoon.

Southwest flow increases Sun as gradient becomes more defined and
weak cold front moves into the area. Solid 15 kt expected sun
afternoon with flow becoming light and northerly as a weak front
moves into the area. Still some uncertainty late in the period,
whether or not the boundary pushes south of the waters, followed by
northeast flow. Gradient does not look very impressive either way
and speeds are likely to be around 10 kt. Seas build to 3 to 4 ft
later Sun and stay 3 to 4 ft mon.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to midnight edt Friday
night for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Ilm
near term... Mas
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... 21
marine... Ilm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 5 mi72 min WSW 9.7 G 16 68°F 67°F1014.5 hPa
41108 31 mi20 min 68°F3 ft
WLON7 41 mi32 min 77°F 67°F1013.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi32 min SW 7 G 8.9 67°F1013.7 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 48 mi95 min W 7 71°F 1014 hPa59°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi72 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 68°F1013.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi50 min 68°F2 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC9 mi27 minW 610.00 miFair77°F57°F52%1014.1 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC22 mi24 minWNW 810.00 miFair76°F57°F54%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
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Thu -- 01:02 AM EDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:21 PM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.54.84.643.12.21.30.70.61.122.93.53.93.83.42.821.40.90.81.223

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, ICWW, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:22 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:12 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:41 PM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:17 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.7332.72.31.71.20.80.60.71.21.72.12.42.52.321.61.20.90.80.91.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.