Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Calabash, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:37PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:24 AM EDT (14:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:04AMMoonset 5:54PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 604 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect until noon edt today...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..N winds 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 604 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will dominate into the weekend as a moderate easterly swell persists. Northeast and east winds will turn southerly early next week ahead of a strong cold front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calabash, NC
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location: 33.86, -78.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 191140
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
740 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
Mostly clear skies and a warming trend are expected into the
weekend, as a dry upper ridge builds across the region. An
approaching cold front will bring a few showers on Tuesday,
before moving offshore Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 211 am Thursday... Though a moderate trough axis and
vorticity center crosses the region today, the column is simply
too dry for any notable meteorological effects as the result of
any lift it provides. At the surface high pressure will remain
centered to our north bringing a NE wind, though the high will
be closer than recent days and the wind lighter. Low level
baroclinicity is very weak so the paltry sense of cold advection
in the NE flow will be offset by insolation and afternoon
temperatures will warm into the upper 70s. With lighter winds
tonight however temperatures will be a bit cooler than those of
today's predawn lows.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 211 am Thursday... A dry and warm short-wave upper ridge
of notable amplitude will migrate east, and anchor off the coast
this period. Associated subsidence will maintain a particularly
dry column, while promoting a daytime warming trend into 80s
over many inland spots Friday and Saturday. The aridity will
sustain large diurnal temperature ranges, as clearing overnight
leads to efficient radiational cooling and seasonably cool fall
mornings, with surface high pressure nearly overhead. As the
center of the high slips offshore late Saturday, return air flow
off the atlantic will bring increasing low level moisture and
marine clouds into very early Sunday, and minimums at daybreak
will be considerably higher than previous dawns. Patchy fog
along the coastal interior seems plausible early on Sunday.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... A highly amplified h5 pattern will
prevail at the onset of the long term period with ridging across
the eastern united states. At the surface, high pressure will
also continue to ridge across the forecast area as it departs
the mid-atlantic region. As a result, dry weather will continue
as temperatures warm a few categories above normal through the
weekend into early next week. Eventually the h5 and surface
ridges lose control as an upper trough and surface low push
eastward. Give this system's current progression it appears that
there will be a good chance of storms during Tuesday with a
lowering in temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday as surface
high pressure builds back into the region.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 12z... High confidence ofVFR through 20 00z. Some
stratocumulus CIGS this morning for a few hours near kilm otherwise
clouds will be sct through this TAF valid period. N-ne winds
at 5-10 kts expected, except becoming east kcre kmyr this afternoon.

After 00z, with clear skies and light winds conditions will be
favorable for fog development. Moisture is very limited and will
just indicate MVFR vsbys for now at the most favorable times 10-12z.

Fog could certainly develop sooner at coastal stations where
moisture is more favorable.

Extended outlook... Tempo MVFR showers mon. OtherwiseVFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 612 am Thursday... The SCA was replaced with a scec for
the 0-20 nm waters. Seas up to 5 ft offshore and gusts to 20 kt
will be common this morning.

As of 211 am Thursday... Long fused NE surge to finally abate
today as high pressure sinks southward and a little closer to
the region. This should ease the gradient sufficiently to allow
the advisory- worthy 6 ft seas to exit the 20 nm cwf boundary
and no changes to the headlines are planned. Wind to remain out
of the NE during the overnight hours and may even settle to
around 10kt. Wind wave energy will wane allowing for a continued
settling of waves though wna continues to show a dominant
period of 8-9 seconds in the NE swell.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 211 am Thursday... An improving marine trend, as winds and
seas decrease, generally ne-e through the period. Winds will
veer to E in the afternoons inshore, then back to NE at night
generally 15 kt or less. Wave energy from the E with dominant
periods of 8-9 seconds. A dry atmosphere remains in place so no
tstms this period.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure is expected to shift
farther off the mid-atlantic coast Sunday, allowing the flow to
veer onshore. Southeast flow will further turn becoming
southerly during Monday as an area of low pressure treks from
the gulf coast to the western carolinas. Small craft advisory
conditions may be reached late Monday in the strengthening
southerly flow. Seas will be 3-4 ft through much of the period
given the duration and size of the onshore fetch around the
periphery of the aforementioned high pressure.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 211 am Thursday... Spring tides to continue to lead to
very marginal minor flooding close to this month's new moon,
which comes today. Yesterday morning guidance was almost a half-
foot over done on the CAPE fear river at downtown. Was tempted
to not hoist advisory this morning but given the full moon think
we have the 80 percent confidence level to go ahead. At
wrightsville beach the current forecast is for tide to barley
just reach the 6.0 mllw value needed for an advisory. Given the
positive error of guidance recently however any error with this
tide will keep the water level shy of minor flooding so will not
issue for the beach at this time.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... mbb
short term... Mjc
long term... Srp
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 5 mi76 min NE 9.7 G 14 63°F 73°F1024.1 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 23 mi54 min 1024 hPa
41108 31 mi54 min 74°F4 ft
WLON7 41 mi54 min 69°F 73°F1024.6 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 43 mi99 min NNE 1.9 65°F 1025 hPa62°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 48 mi99 min NNE 6 62°F 1024 hPa56°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi54 min 65°F 74°F1023.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi76 min NE 14 G 21 69°F 74°F1024.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi55 min 74°F4 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC9 mi31 minNNE 810.00 miFair67°F57°F73%1024.9 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC22 mi28 minN 1010.00 miFair67°F57°F73%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NE9NE8NE11--N6N7NE9N3NE3NE5NE5N4N5N7N6N6N7NE8NE9N8N7NE8N8
1 day agoN10
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NE10NE7NE5NE3NE5NE5N4NE6NE6NE5NE7N8N6N9N9NE10N11NE11
2 days ago6W8NW7NW8NW7N10
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N8NE8NE13NE12N10N8

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:18 AM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:49 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.90.80.20.31.22.645.15.75.64.93.82.61.30.40.20.82.13.44.65.25.34.73.8

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:30 AM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:18 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.40.70.20.10.51.42.33.13.53.63.22.71.91.10.50.10.311.92.83.33.33.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.