Sunday, September23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Calabash, NC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:11PM Sunday September 23, 2018 7:57 AM EDT (11:57 UTC) Moonrise 5:45PMMoonset 4:29AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 419 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Today..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms with a slight chance of showers.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..E winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 419 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will slowly shift offshore through early week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calabash, NC
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location: 33.86, -78.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231036
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
638 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

High pressure will prevail through early next week. An upper
trough approaching from the west, will gradually push a cold
front this way, reaching our coast Friday. Drier and slightly
cooler high pressure is expected build in next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am Sunday... Deep layer high pressure will continue
to dominate conditions through the near term period. The ridge
is keeping the bulk of the activity associated with a wavering
front across the mississippi valley at bay well to the west.

This front is analyzed across central north carolina with a
subtle wind shift essentially the only indicator. As for any
showers, there is a slim possibility of a shower or two along
this boundary this afternoon and maybe a little atlantic
activity advecting in early Monday morning. Continued to lean
toward the met numbers for temperatures although guidance is in
really good agreement overall.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 400 am Sunday... 1040mb high centered over SE canada will
ridge down the eastern seaboard thru tue. A cold front tries to
drop south to the CWA but gets hung up north of the fa tue
before being pushed back to the north. Various model mos
guidance pop forecasts range from isolated chance via the nam,
to a modest to good chance via the gfs. And, the european
basically smack in the middle. At this point, will lean toward
the drier side of guidance given the progged moisture advection
at all levels remaining humbling at best. With a drier fcst,
will lean towards hier MAX temp fcsts.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 320 pm Saturday... Bermuda to bahama upper ridge will be
holding on Tuesday and Wednesday before shifting east, as an
upstream and broad upper trough, and associated its axis, edge
eastward across the mississippi valley. It appears the trough is
of sufficient latitudinal amplification to bring a moderate
degree of 925-700mb gulf moisture pluming NE ahead of a slowly
approaching cold front. As such, rain chances ramp up a bit
Thursday and Friday. The cold front to cross the coast Friday
night. The front may be slowly clearing the sc coast into
Saturday, and overall, drier and slightly cooler air should
filter in Saturday.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
As of 12z... Some ground fog possible through 13z. High pressure
prevails once again with light winds and above normal temperatures.

An onshore winds is expected by midday with scattered cu, mainly
along the resultant. Tonight, an onshore shower is possible after

Extended outlook... MostlyVFR through this period. However,
flight restrictions are possible in late night early morning
fog stratus each day. And brief flight restrictions are
possible within showers thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday,
especially during the afternoon evening hours.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 400 am Sunday... Benign conditions will continue across
the coastal waters through the period. Expect mostly an
easterly flow overall with a little bend to the south this
afternoon along coastal areas with the sea breeze. Speeds will
perhaps be a couple of knots higher than previous days but
overall confined in a 10-15 knot range. Significant seas will
be 2-3 feet.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night ...

as of 400 am Sunday... Modest 1035+ mb sfc ridging will extend
down the eastern seaboard and across the carolinas at the start
of this period. Winds will run from the NE to E at 10 to 15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt. For Tuesday thru Tuesday night, a trof or
sfc low well offshore and southeast of the carolinas is progged
to move northwestward then northward Tue night, remaining just
offshore as it passes by Wed morning. The sfc low or trof will
have some tropical characteristics, but is not expected to
further organize. Winds could temporarily increase to 10 to 20
kt with g25 mainly from Mon into Tue aftn. Significant seas will
range between 2 to 5 ft thruout this period with 6 footers not
out of the question for late Mon night thru tue. The waters from
cape fear northward will have the best potential to see the
6+ footers. Dominate periods will run 8+ seconds. Overall, the
hier winds and seas will occur along and to the north thru east
of the sfc low's track.

Long term Wednesday through Thursday ...

as of 320 pm Saturday... Weak tropical low pressure, or possibly
just a surface trough will approach the carolina coasts late
Tuesday night, dissipating as it lifts to the north across the
nc outer banks Wednesday. Well established SW wind flow will
follow in wake of this feature Thursday. As the low nears
Tuesday, we may see gusty NE winds and elevated seas, so an sca
or scec possible at this time Tuesday. Tuesday onward, isolated
tstms can be expected to impact the 0-20nm waters.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood warning until 1 pm edt this afternoon for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Shk
short term... Dch
long term... Mjc
aviation... 43

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 5 mi49 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 75°F 82°F1019.1 hPa
SSBN7 5 mi117 min 1 ft
41108 31 mi27 min 81°F2 ft
WLON7 41 mi45 min 71°F 78°F1018.3 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 48 mi72 min NNW 4.1 72°F 1018 hPa71°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi39 min 74°F 83°F1018.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi27 min 80°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi49 min N 5.8 G 9.7 76°F 81°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC9 mi64 minNE 310.00 miFair70°F69°F97%1018.1 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC22 mi61 minN 310.00 miFair71°F69°F94%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--N3CalmCalmCalmS65S8S7S5S7S4S5S6S3S6S7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3
1 day agoN4NE8NE6NE5N6NE8E7E8E7SE8SE5SE5SE6E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago3NE4NE5E5E8E8SE7E9E10

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.