Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Calabash, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:31PM Saturday June 23, 2018 12:07 AM EDT (04:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:27PMMoonset 2:07AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 922 Pm Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Wed..E winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 922 Pm Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will maintain moderate winds through the weekend. A cold front will move through from the north Monday, followed by high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calabash, NC
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location: 33.86, -78.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 230130
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
930 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

Hot and humid weather with isolated thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend and into Monday. Heat advisories are
possible Sunday and Monday. A cold front will cross the area
late Monday and Tuesday bringing a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Much cooler weather will follow for the middle
of next week before temperatures rebound above normal by next

Near term through Saturday
As of 930 pm Friday... I've boosted pops to 30 percent from
hartsville to bennettsville and red springs due to a line of
thunderstorms stretching from newberry to saluda, sc and moving
northeastward. Latest hrrr shows this area of convection
surviving in at least a broken line state as it moves into this
portion of the sandhills between 11 pm and midnight. The bulk of
this activity should remain just north of the city of florence
assuming it remains on a linear trajectory. No other
significant changes. Discussion from 730 pm follows...

unless an isolated shower can manage to overcome the dry air
aloft across the i-95 corridor late this evening as indicated by
several recent hrrr runs, the overnight period should remain
dry. A modest low-level jet (20-25 kt at 925 mb) should keep
surface winds from decoupling for most locations, with lows
expected to remain in the very muggy 75-80 degree range. Our
forecast low of 80 in southport, should it verify, would be the
second night in a row with an 80 degree low temperature there.

Mercer pier at wrightsville beach had an 81 degree low last
night! Changes to the forecast were very minor. Discussion from
300 pm follows...

750-600 mb capping keeping a lid on deep convection so far.

Along the sea breeze, and an inland thermal trough are the
favored locations for an updraft to pop through but longevity
would be limited. We are seeing enhanced cumulus in these
regions, and the sandhills trough appears lined up well with
weak vertical circulations aloft, along a precipitable water
gradient and as such a few storms could pop here.

Heat advisory posted for williamsburg and georgetown counties
until 6 pm today, where temperatures may climb several more
degrees. Saturday falls shy of heat headlines at this time, but
increasing mid-level moisture and high sbcapes should allow
isolated to scattered tstms to develop Saturday.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 300 pm Friday... The mid level pattern will be almost due
west to east for Sunday and this will lead to probably the
hottest day of the year. With a deep downslope flow and a sea
breeze not making much inland progress expect wide coverage of
middle and upper 90s. By late Sunday night into early Monday a
decent shortwave buckles the flow with a front pushing across or
in the process of pushing across by the end of the period.

Expect good coverage of convection with this feature as well. As
for pops for Sunday, I walked back the values somewhat due to
somewhat unfavorable profiles.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... One last very hot and humid day forecast
for Monday but a change is coming. That change is due to a
strong cold front which will drop slowly southward across the
area Monday night into Tuesday, and may stall briefly before
pushing further south and washing out by Wednesday. This will
bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night
and Tuesday, with heavy rain possible. Although this front will
dissipate into Wednesday, cool surface high pressure and broad
troughing aloft will keep temps much cooler through late week
before ridging develops again from the west with a possible
return to significant heat by the end of the week. With the high
pressure in place and cooler temperatures, convective potential
will be decreased wed-fri, with just isolated tstms possible
during the aftns. Highs Monday will climb well into the 90s with
heat advisory criteria heat index values possible. Temps tue-
thu will fall to more seasonable levels for both highs and lows
before warming again to above normal at the end of the period.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Upper low will slowly move north northeast through the forecast
period. Overnight, little to no fog expected the a moderate
southerly wind, keeping the atmosphere fairly mixed. Saturday,
convection will be hard to kick off, but it looks like a spoke of
energy from the upper low will interact with the sea breeze tomorrow
afternoon. Pretty strong southwest flow expected.

Extended outlook... MostlyVFR. Mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day with short duration restrictions
possible. A cold front will bring a better chance for showers
and thunderstorms Monday.

Near term through Saturday ...

as of 930 pm Friday... The cormp buoy a couple miles off sunset
beach has been reporting consistent wind gusts of 20-25 knots
for the past couple of hours. Ccu pier observations from myrtle
beach and north myrtle beach confirm 15-20 knot breezes even on
the coast. I've updated the marine forecast to maintain these
stronger wind speeds for the next several hours before winds
diminish a bit overnight.

The cormp 'harbor' buoy south of southport is now reporting 3.5
foot seas as these stronger winds have had time to work on the
ocean surface. Seas of 2-4 feet should continue overnight.

Discussion from 730 pm follows...

seabreeze-enhanced winds gusting over 20 knots at times should
diminish near shore this evening, but the synoptic wind will
continue at a solid 15 knots with gusts near 20 knots all night.

Seas continue to build, and should reach 3 to locally 4 feet
overnight. Changes with this forecast update were very minor.

Discussion from 300 pm follows...

sw winds ongoing, generally 15 kt, with occasional gusts to 20
kt. Winds will pick up late Saturday a bit and an 'exercise
caution' headline may be needed beyond this period. Seas around
3 ft, but up to 4 ft outer waters at times, especially Saturday
afternoon. Dominant wave energy, S waves 3 feet at 5 seconds, so
bumpy conditions can be expected. Radar updates are encouraged
as scattered tstms will prevail Saturday.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Fairly brisk winds across the waters
through the period via good low level jetting and an approaching
front very late in the period. Expect a southwest flow of 15-20
knots through the period. Significant seas should be 2-4 feet
but some five footers could wander into the spectrum from time
to time especially late in the period.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... A cold front will drop slowly across the
waters Monday night through Tuesday, causing winds to turn from sw
early, to NE at 10-15 kts during Tuesday. This front will sag
southward and then dissipate into Wednesday as high pressure
elongates offshore. This drives winds to a more easterly direction
on Wednesday, while maintaining those 10-15 kt speeds. Wave heights
will be generally 3-4 ft through the middle of next week. However, a
variety of wave groups will exist due to the fluctuating winds, so a
confused spectrum is likely at times the first half of the period
before an easterly 5-sec wind wave becomes dominant.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement from 6 am edt Saturday through
Saturday evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement from 6 am edt Saturday through
Saturday evening for ncz106-108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jdw
near term... Mjc tra
short term... Shk
long term... Jdw
aviation... Dl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 5 mi128 min 3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 5 mi60 min SW 16 G 21 82°F 81°F1011.6 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 23 mi56 min 1015.1 hPa
41108 31 mi38 min 82°F4 ft
WLON7 41 mi56 min 82°F 84°F1011.2 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 48 mi83 min SW 11 83°F 1012 hPa78°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi56 min SSW 16 G 19 82°F 80°F1011.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi60 min SSW 16 G 19 80°F 80°F1010.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi38 min 79°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC9 mi75 minSW 1110.00 miFair81°F78°F91%1011.5 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC22 mi72 minSSW 910.00 miFair82°F77°F85%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW5W5SW4CalmSW4W4SW4W6SW5W7W12
1 day agoCalmS4S6SW7SW4CalmCalmW5W3CalmS5S7S8S6S9S8S9S9S7SW7CalmSW4SW4SW4
2 days agoW9W6W6W6W6W3W5NW5W4NW5S6S11SW11S12SW16S13SW15SW18

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
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Sat -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:52 AM EDT     4.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:31 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:36 PM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
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Sat -- 12:45 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:57 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:49 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.