Saturday, August19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Little River, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:57PM Saturday August 19, 2017 2:33 PM EDT (18:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:14AMMoonset 5:28PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 823 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt late this morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft...building to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 823 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will stall just inland a remain over land through the weekend. High pressure will return early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little River, SC
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location: 33.86, -78.64     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 191733
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
133 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

Hot and humid weather will prevail this weekend with a few
thunderstorms capable of torrential rainfall, as a front stalls
and weakens along the coast. High pressure will expand across
the western atlantic in the upcoming week, maintaining summer
like conditions across the region. Followed by an approaching
front from the NW Wednesday through Thursday.

Near term through Sunday
As of 9 am Saturday... Goes-16 'differential water vapor'
channel shows an axis of enhanced mid-level moisture that
extends ene-wsw across CAPE fear, and over the coastal interior
of south carolina. Convergence will increase near the coast
today, as an upper wave helps spawn a surface trough over the
eastern half of NE sc and SE nc. Precipitable water content
sensed from ssm I and amsu polar orbiters show values of around
2 inches along the coast and coastal interior. These factors
will result in scattered tstms along and near the coast as soon
as late morning, gradually moving toward the nne. Torrential
rain may require isolated issuances of localized flood alerts.

Diurnal cooling will bring a diminishing trend of the convection
after 900 pm. Heat advisory continues for the coastal zones due
to high dewpoints and apparent temps >104 this afternoon.

As of 330 am Saturday... A weak mid level trough, currently
over the tennessee valley, will push a cold front near the
coast later today. This will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Both the NAM and GFS have convection firing
around mid to late morning and lingering through the late
afternoon hours. Once again with precipitable water values
near two inches, heavy rainfall will be the biggest threat.

Tonight should be relatively quiet with guidance painting a
mostly convection free scenario. As for temperatures, there
will be a very slight cooling inland with regards to actual
temperatures and dewpoints. The coast however still remains
very humid with dewpoints in the upper 70s and I will
hoist an advisory for these areas.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 330 am Saturday... The westerlies aloft will pull back
slightly to the north this period. With rising 5h heights, mid-
level ridging from off the atlantic will extend westward,
across the fa, across the gulf coast states, and reaching
texas and northern mexico. The upper low or if it opens up, an
inverted upper trof, will make it's way across the gulf of
mexico this period. At the sfc, a stalled frontal boundary will
lie NE to SW along the immediate carolina coasts or just
offshore on sun. This proximity will allow for convection to
develop especially across the coastal counties with low chance
category for pops. Further inland, drier air aloft and
subsidence will keep convection to isolated at best during sun.

On mon, as mentioned earlier, the upper trof aloft will push
westward over the gulf of mexico, with it's upper trof axis
extending and pushing across the fa during mon. What ever is
left of the frontal boundary will combine with dynamics aloft to
producing a low to modest chance for convection Mon into mon
evening. Pops will be hiest across the coastal counties and the
southern portions of the ilm sc cwa. This may jeopardize the
solar eclipse viewing across portions of the fa. Stay tuned.

Stayed close to a consensus amongst the various model mos
guidance. The trend will be for MAX temps hier sun, slightly
lower for Mon when compared to sun. Min temps, widespread mid to
upper 70s, with a few low 70s well inland, ie. West of the i-95
corridor, depending on sky conditions.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... A flat mid-level ridge will extend
from the atlantic across the carolinas Tuesday, then get
suppressed south as a trough carves out across the eastern
seaboard for the latter half of the week. With no real airmass
change evident in guidance until perhaps Thursday, precipitable
water values will hover around 2 inches until then. Scattered
pulse showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and
evening Tuesday through Wednesday, with the highest chances
Wednesday night through Thursday when convection becomes
organized along and ahead of a frontal boundary. As usual in the
extended period, and especially in august, there is a great
deal of uncertainty with timing the front and determining how
far south it will push. Will hang on to higher pops across the
southern CWA on Friday to account for that.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
As of 18z... Brief MVFR conditions to accompany scattered tstms
and also late tonight aft 7z in fog development. Otherwise
expectVFR conditions with light winds this period... Mainly
w-sw 7 kt or less.

Extended outlook... Expect flight restrictions from isolated to
widely scattered tstms Sun aftn, increasing in coverage by tue
through wed. Flight restrictions will also be possible each
early morning due to stratus fog wed.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 9 am Saturday... Little to no e-se wave energy presently
and seas are dominated by S waves 2-3 feet every 6 seconds and
up to 4 feet outer waters. Isolated tstms will impact the waters
today and tonight and radar updates are encouraged.

As of 330 am Saturday... Winds remain fairly brisk this morning
due to enhanced low level jetting. Speeds are currently in a
10-15 knot range down a few knots from earlier reports. Speeds
will decrease another knot or two then settle into this range
through early morning Sunday. Seas are currently just over four
feet and shouldn't rise much if any more. Overall a range of 2-4
feet will continue through Sunday morning as well.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 330 am Saturday... A meandering but basically stalled sfc
frontal boundary in proximity of the local waters, may initially
result in changing predominate wind directions. Overall, wind
directions will basically be onshore this period. The sfc pg
will however remain relaxed thru the period, with speeds
basically around 10 kt or less. Significant seas will be
dominated by a lazy 1 to 2 foot ese-se ground swell with periods
8 to 9 seconds Sunday and approaching 10 seconds during Monday.

Wavewatch3 does show a slight increase, up to an additional 1
foot, to the ese-se ground swell Mon night into tue. Sun and mon
afternoons evenings will see some short period wind chop due to
the sea breeze and it's inland progression. Of the 2 days,
convection will be more active during mon, especially across the
ilm sc waters.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... A benign pressure field across the waters
will keep winds 10 knots or less Tuesday, as a weak bermuda
high pressure remains in place off the coast. Winds will begin
to pick up out of the southwest by Tuesday afternoon as a
surface trough takes shape across the carolina piedmont. Shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected to remain isolated to
widely scattered over the waters in a general southerly flow
through the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for scz053>056.

Nc... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for ncz099-105>110.

Marine... None.

Near term... Mjc
short term... Mrr
long term... Rgz
aviation... Mjc

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 8 mi154 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi86 min SW 9.7 G 14 84°F 85°F1013.8 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 20 mi46 min 1012.9 hPa
41108 34 mi64 min 86°F4 ft
WLON7 44 mi46 min 88°F 85°F1013.1 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 46 mi109 min S 8.9 90°F 1014 hPa78°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC5 mi41 minSSW 1710.00 miFair88°F78°F73%1013.3 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC19 mi49 minS 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F78°F71%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS14S12S14S13SW14S16SW14SW16
1 day agoSE7E7S73CalmE4CalmCalmCalmSW6S6SW7SW10SW11SW8SW8SW5SW55SW454S11S13
2 days agoS8S10S11S8SW21

Tide / Current Tables for Nixon Crossroads, South Carolina
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Nixon Crossroads
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Sat -- 01:13 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:45 AM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:20 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:19 PM EDT     5.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Pier, Atlantic Ocean, North Carolina
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Sunset Beach Pier
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Sat -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:00 PM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     5.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.