Thursday, August24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Rayle, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 8:10PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:58 AM EDT (04:58 UTC) Moonrise 8:50AMMoonset 9:09PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rayle, GA
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location: 33.86, -82.89     debug

Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 240229
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
1029 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Convection has diminished over the CWA and expect generally clear
skies overnight. A sfc cold front is located across central
georgia at 0230z... With a noticeably drier airmass in its wake. As
this front slowly continues it southward progress... Should make
for a cooler night across north georgia and an overall pleasant
day tomorrow. Convection will be largely confined to the southern
counties of the CWA in the nearest vicinity of the frontal

Have made minor changes to the forecast this evening, mainly
updating pop trends.


Prev discussion issued 738 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
prev discussion... Issued 356 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
short term tonight through Thursday night ...

current surface analysis across the local area indicates frontal
boundary is now moving through the atlanta metro. Drier air
continues to move in behind this feature with GOES precipitable
water product indicating values only around an inch from trenton
to cleveland and 1.3 to 1.5 down to the i20 corridor. This is much
more significant than what models had indicated around 36 hours
ago and attributable to a quicker frontal progression. As a
result, precip coverage has been almost non existent north of the
front and have continued to cut pops with each update with only
isolated coverage in latest iteration.

South of the front is a bit of different story although even
convection here has been sparse and slow to develop. Still believe
there is a good opportunity though to realize higher values in
the high end scattered category with front, subtle shortwave and
pws over 2 inches. Convective temps were slightly higher today
owing to the later start but now in the 90s, should have no
troubles seeing higher pop values. There are some slightly cooler
values aloft with -7c at 500mb so could see some more robust
updrafts allowing for some isolated strong storms.

The drying trend continues through Thu with pws dropping well
below an inch across the northern tier... Mainly from i20
northward. Still sufficient moisture and instability across far
southern sections for tsra activity but should be only isolated to
low end chance at best. Same cool pool aloft will be in place so
again cannot rule out and isolated strong storm during this time
period. Went with the consensus blend for temps which yield values
2 to 3 degrees lower than today for areas to the north.

long term Friday through Wednesday ...

no major changes to the long term forecast. 12z guidance not
showing too many changes. With surface ridging over our area, a
tropical low east of the florida coast, and whatever becomes of
harvey, the long term forecast is uncertain. Being in the middle
of these three features, we have kept in chances for rain through
the extended, which matches 12z guidance blend. Previous
discussion follows.

3 snelson
prev long term discussion... Issued 305 am edt Wed aug 23 2017
long term Thursday night through Tuesday ...

in the early part of the long term, high pressure will continue
to keep north georgia dry for the rest of the week with low chance
pops continuing across parts of central georgia. After Friday
confidence in the solution drops as the models struggle with a
solution to the tropical wave moving into the western gulf and its
effects on the cwa. Will trend to climatology with slight chance
to chance pops each day beginning Saturday and continuing into
Tuesday. Temperatures will be at or just below normals.


00z update...

a southward moving cold front has allowed for mostly clear and
tranquil conditions across the northern TAF sites this
evening... With diminishing showers and convective debris across
csg and mcn. Expect an overall clearing trend overnight with some
cirrus in the vicinity. Given the post frontal airmass only expect
a few-sct CU between 035-050 through the afternoon on Thursday.

Winds will remain from the NW overnight and expected to shift ne
by mid morning Thursday... Though could flirt before this time
frame. Speeds will remain less than 10kts.

Atl confidence... 00z update...

medium on wind shift
high on all other elements.


Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 91 69 88 68 30 10 5 5
atlanta 87 70 88 69 30 10 0 5
blairsville 84 60 82 60 30 0 0 0
cartersville 89 65 87 65 30 5 0 5
columbus 95 73 92 71 50 30 5 5
gainesville 89 68 86 67 30 5 5 5
macon 94 72 91 71 50 30 5 5
rome 91 65 87 63 20 5 0 5
peachtree city 89 69 89 67 30 10 5 5
vidalia 97 74 93 73 50 30 30 20

Ffc watches warnings advisories

Short term... Kovacik
long term... .41
aviation... Kovacik

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 39 mi79 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 78°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 87 mi39 min Calm G 2.9 80°F 1010.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Washington-Wilkes County Airport, GA7 mi84 minWNW 410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1012.2 hPa
Greensboro, Greene County Regional Airport, GA22 mi84 minN 010.00 miFair77°F69°F79%1011.5 hPa
Athens, Athens Airport, GA24 mi68 minWNW 310.00 miFair75°F68°F79%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from IIY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW3SW3SW3SW3W4SW3SW3W4W5W6SW6W5W7W5W7W9W6W6W4W3W4W5CalmNW4
1 day ago------------CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4S4S7S5SW4S3SW3SW3CalmSW3
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4CalmCalmCalmE4SE5S5CalmS6--------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.