Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Rayle, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 7:45PM Sunday March 18, 2018 3:42 AM EDT (07:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:30AMMoonset 7:59PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rayle, GA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.86, -82.89     debug

Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kffc 180213
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
1013 pm edt Sat mar 17 2018

Wound up being an interesting evening for the CWA as several
strong to severe thunderstorms affected portions of north and
central georgia. The strongest storms clipped the far northeast
georgia counties... Within a conducive environment for large hail
and rotating updrafts. Given lack of sufficient lower level radar
data given radar void across this area... No confirmed reports of
tornadic touchdown across these areas have been noted... Tho did
receive some half dollar size hail reports. Although these storms
are still moving across northeast georgia and are still
severe... They have moved out of the CWA and no additional severe
activity is expected through tonight for our local area.

Earlier thunderstorm activity was associated with large scale
lift courtesy of a shortwave trough moving swifting south within
the ohio valley along with its southward moving sfc cold frontal
boundary. Both the shortwave and cold front will continue to
approach the area through the overnight hours. Really only
anticipating some cloud cover with this FROPA and no real change
in airmass is forecast... Tho could see slightly lower pw and
mixing ratio values across north and east georgia thru Sunday

Forecast seems to be in good shape this evening. Have made only
minor tweaks to the grids the last few hours. Do expect an overall
pleasant day on Sunday... With showers and storms approaching from
the west by late afternoon. Severe parameters are not expected to
quite come together with this initial round of precip as of right
now thru Sunday evening... Tho still looking like a different story
for Monday.


Prev discussion issued 744 pm edt Sat mar 17 2018
prev discussion... Issued 248 pm edt Sat mar 17 2018
short term tonight through Sunday night ...

most of the showers have dissipated with a few remaining across
central ga. These showers will continue shifting south and should be
out of the CWA by 00z. A weak short wave an associated cold front
will move across the tennessee vally this evening. This could tap
into some low level moisture as it move into the region bringing a
chance of showers tstorms to extreme northeast georgia this
evening tonight. The cold front will move into central south ga
Sunday, however as the next short wave moves into the mississippi
valley, the front will move north as a warm front. Significant
isentropic lift along the warm front will bring increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the western part of the CWA late Sunday
afternoon and across the entire CWA Sunday night.

long term Monday through Saturday ...

mainly only tweaks to the long term based on the latest
guidance. A wet and stormy period is still expected Monday
into early Tuesday.

previous discussion...

a fairly aggressive system making its way into our area for the
beginning of the extended forecast. High pressure builds back
into the region for the middle to end of the 7 day forecast.

The cold front that moves through the area today moves back
northward as a warm front Sunday night with the next cold front
directly on its heels. Beginning Sunday night Monday morning,
moist southwesterly flow sets up across the area as the warm
front moves into central portions of the state. Instability
indices increase across the state as a a strong piece of southern
stream energy interacts with the warm front. This will produce
periods of locally heavy rainfall and some isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Currently, the axis of heaviest rainfall is progged
to be across central and south ga. Another bout of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall is possible Monday night into Tuesday as
the cold front moves through.

As far a S the possible severe weather from this system the
models are coming into a bit of better agreement as far as timing
and intensity. Instability peaks Sunday evening then weakens
Sunday night through early Monday morning. This should keep any
thunderstorms to a minimum but would not be surprised to see
strong thunderstorm during this time frame. The mid level lapse
rates stay fairly steep... And some surface instability will be
present so can not rule out a severe storm. Instabilities
increase during the day Monday with MUCAPE increasing into the
800-1800j kg range and shear and lapse rate values staying up as
well. There is not as much deep moisture present but with a
secondary cold front sweeping around the parent low and daytime
high temps in the 60s and 70s... The atmosphere will be primed for
severe storms to develop. SPC also agrees and has placed the
majority of the state under a slight risk for day 3 with NW and
west central ga under a 10 percent hatched area for significant
severe weather. Will be keeping a close eye on this over the next
few days
behind the cold front, for the latter half of the week, colder than
normal temps will return. Will most likely have to issues some
frost freeze products Wed thu.


00z update...

mainly passing cirrus expected thru this evening. Main question is
to what extent and how far north potential MVFR ceilings will get
across the TAF sites overnight. Given location of best
moisture precip... Think mcn and csg will have best chance for MVFR
cigs with also some potential for fog and reduced vsbys. Further
north across metro atl and ahn there could be some scattered to
perhaps bkn MVFR for a few hours but confidence is not high.

Patchy fog will also be possible across northern sites but not
thinking enough coverage or duration for vsby impacts. Showers and
storms should remain outside of airport locations thru Sunday
morning. Will see coverage increase from the west by late Sunday
afternoon. West winds will continue at less than 10kts.

Atl confidence... 00z update...

low confidence on potential MVFR CIGS overnight.

High on all other elements.


Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 77 54 74 53 40 5 10 80
atlanta 74 55 73 55 80 5 20 80
blairsville 70 46 68 48 70 60 5 70
cartersville 73 51 71 53 80 10 20 80
columbus 81 60 78 60 60 10 50 90
gainesville 72 53 71 52 80 10 5 80
macon 79 58 78 57 60 10 30 80
rome 75 50 71 53 70 10 10 80
peachtree city 74 55 74 56 80 5 30 90
vidalia 79 61 79 60 60 30 5 80

Ffc watches warnings advisories

Short term... 17
long term... .Bdl
aviation... Kovacik

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 39 mi62 min Calm G 2.9 61°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 87 mi22 min W 13 G 19 65°F 1007.8 hPa

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Washington-Wilkes County Airport, GA7 mi47 minWSW 710.00 miFair63°F57°F83%1010.2 hPa
Greensboro, Greene County Regional Airport, GA22 mi47 minWSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F59°F88%1009.8 hPa
Athens, Athens Airport, GA24 mi51 minWSW 410.00 miFair61°F57°F90%1009.9 hPa

Wind History from IIY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW4SW3W4CalmCalmCalmS3S4SW5W9SW5W8W9SW9W6SW6SW4SW3SW3SW4SW5SW4SW4W6
1 day agoW7W5W4W5----------------W10
2 days agoW5W5W8W5----------------W12

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (3,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.