Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 6:27 PM   Moonset 4:26 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 904 Pm Pdt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 7 seconds and S 3 ft at 16 seconds. Tue - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 3 ft at 16 seconds. Tue night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy fog. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft and S 2 ft. Patchy fog. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 2 ft.

PZZ600 904 Pm Pdt Mon May 20 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1036 mb surface high was centered 950 nm northwest of los angeles, while a 1003 mb thermal low was centered over southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 210714 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1214 AM PDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
20/817 PM.

Low clouds will continue through the morning with better clearing on Tuesday afternoon. More sunshine with slight warming is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as onshore flow weakens. Then cooler with increasing marine layer clouds again the latter half of next week.

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...20/818 PM.

An upper level trough will continue to dig into the Great Basin tonight into Tuesday. This system will generate some gusty northwest to north winds tonight, with the low level flow shifting to the northeast on Tuesday morning across the mountains and Antelope Valley. The wind advisory for the Antelope Valley foothills has been cancelled early as winds are already beginning to diminish as onshore pressure gradients gradually weaken tonight. The strongest northwest to north winds tonight will be focused across the I-5 corridor and Southwest Santa Barbara county where wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common. As the flow turns northeast on Tuesday morning, looking for some wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the mountains of LA/Ventura counties.

With a weakened inversion tonight, the marine layer cloud coverage is quite chaotic. But in general, low clouds are expected to fill in across many coastal/valley areas overnight into Tuesday morning, although the marine layer depth is expected to gradually diminish (especially north of Point Conception). Low clouds are expected to be confined to just coast and coastal valley areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. For Wednesday night and Thursday, looks like the stratus will make a renewed push inland to the lower coastal slopes. Other than the marine layer stratus, skies should remain mostly clear through the period.

*** From previous discussion ***

As for temperatures, will expect a warming trend for all areas Tuesday and Wednesday with rising thicknesses and less marine influence. So, coastal valley areas will experience temperatures in the 70s through Wednesday. For Thursday, temperatures will drop a few degrees for all areas.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...20/200 PM.

For the extended, models and their various ensembles are in decent agreement through the period. A broad upper level trough will persist over the area Friday/Saturday, but a rather flat upper level ridge will begin to build on Sunday/Monday.

Forecast-wise, marine layer stratus will continue to be the main challenge through the period. For Friday/Saturday, expect the marine inversion to remain rather deep, with stratus pushing into the coastal slopes and slow afternoon clearing. This significant marine layer pattern and upper level trough will keep all areas a few degrees cooler than normal through Saturday. Also, moderate to strong onshore gradients will keep the potential for some advisory level southwesterly winds across interior sections each afternoon and evening, especially in the Antelope Valley foothills.

For Sunday/Monday, increasing H5 heights will help to smoosh the marine inversion, with decreasing inland penetration each night.
Also with rising thicknesses and less marine influence, a warming trend can be expected for all areas.

AVIATION
21/0713Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3200 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4800 feet with a temperature of 13 C.

Good confidence in desert TAFs.

Low confidence in TAF for KSBA with a 40 percent chc of MVFR cigs 11Z-18Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. VFR transitions could be off by +/- 90 minutes. Lower confidence in return of low clouds after 22/03Z with near equal chances of an earlier or much later arrival time.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR transition could occur any time between 18Z and 21Z. Low confidence in timing of return of low clouds Tuesday evening with a 30 percent chc of an arrival time 10Z-11Z and a 20 percent chc of 07Z-08Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be 5 knots or less.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR transition may be as late as 20Z. There is a 30 percent chc that cigs will not drop below OVC022. There is a 25 percent chc of no low clouds Tuesday evening.

MARINE
20/932 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast. Widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions (winds and seas) will continue over the offshore waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through at least late Tuesday night and likely through at least Friday. There will likely be brief and slight lulls during the late night and morning hours. There is a 30-50 percent chance of SCA winds for the western Santa Barbara Channel and into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast each afternoon and evening. SCA conditions are unlikely elsewhere.

A long period south to southwest swell will diminish late Tuesday night and into Wednesday. This will create larger than usual breaking waves nearshore as well as some stronger currents near most harbor entrances.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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El Segundo
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Tue -- 03:17 AM PDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:26 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:31 AM PDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:25 PM PDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
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Santa Monica
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Tue -- 03:10 AM PDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:26 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:21 AM PDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:13 PM PDT     1.78 feet Low Tide
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