Monday, August21, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Sunset Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:55PM Monday August 21, 2017 12:32 AM EDT (04:32 UTC) Moonrise 5:24AMMoonset 7:00PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1057 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Overnight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 10 kt or less...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 kt or less...increasing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt...becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1057 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak front near the coast will dissipate overnight. Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through Tuesday. A moderately strong cold front will cross the coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Canadian high pressure will build in Thursday and Friday with ne winds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunset Beach, NC
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location: 33.88, -78.51     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 202305
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
705 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

A weak front will slowly dissipate across the area through
tonight. Moisture from a trough to our south will make its way
on shore over the southeast coast through Monday. High pressure
will expand across the area from the western atlantic Monday
thru Wednesday, continuing the heat and high humidity. A cold
front will move across the eastern carolinas from the northwest
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Canadian high pressure will
build down behind front bringing drier weather for the weekend.

Near term through Monday
As of 7 pm Sunday... One last lonely shower is moving SW across
horry county as a combined sea-breeze outflow boundry moves
swiftly inland. Expect not much more than this for the remainder
of the night as far as precip goes. Still expecting substantial
fog development overnight throughout the forecast area but
latest indications are that it will not be dense and widespread
enough to warrant an advisory. Have updated gridded database
and forecast to reflect precip trends and refine fog
expectations. Previous discussion follows:
gfs NAM diverge with moisture profiles during Monday and
specifically during the eclipse with the NAM probably too
agressive with deeper moisture return during the day. Expect to
see the most clouds along sc coastal areas with partly to mostly
cloudy skies, and partly cloudy skies elsewhere once the
stratus fog dissipates. Focused highest pops across the southern
areas as well during tomorrow (30-35%) with slight chance to
low chance pops across remaining areas. Lows are expected to
range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast. As
a result of the disparity in the cloud cover during Monday favor
a blend toward the warmer less cloudy GFS mav high

Latest etss for downtown wilmington has predicted levels right
at minor coastal flood thresholds with high tide this evening.

In the absence of heavy rainfall and a fetch that would push
levels above criteria will hold off on a coastal flood advisory
at this time. Subsequent high tides with during the next couple
evenings should exceed thresholds as a result of the new moon.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
As of 300 pm Sunday... Ridging aloft to the west will combine
with atlantic ridge, to produce center of ridge aligning right
over the southeast Mon night through tues. This will allow for
increased subsidence and dry air aloft which should limit
convection, but shallow tropical moisture will continue to be
present in a s-se low level wind flow. Essentially, a tropical
airmass will be present with pcp water values up near 1.75 to 2
inches. Overall expect localized CU and convective development
mainly along sea breeze pushing inland through the afternoon and
some convection mainly off shore overnight. The NAM and gfs
were both trying to show a piece of energy rotating around the
ridge from the south possibly producing some clouds or slight
chc of shwrs toward daybreak wed, but overall not expecting much
coverage through the period.

Temps will be on the warm side with 90 to 95 most places during
the day and in 70s at night.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 3 pm Sunday... Primary feature influencing extended
forecasts is cold frontal passage late Wednesday and early
Thursday. This is supported by gfs ECMWF upper patterns, both of
which also migrate canadian high pressure into the region
Friday through the weekend, imparting a slightly drier and
cooler feel than late. Goes-16 shows the circulation near 20n
north of puerto rico, which may fester off the fl coast near a
stalled boundary early next week, potentially deepening.

Regardless of intensity, the expectation is this feature will
lift to the north slowly, remaining offshore of our coast. A few
strong storms are possible late Wednesday as wind shear aloft
and low- level convergence increase as the upper trough edges
in. Wednesday may very well be the warmest day of the extended
period, prior to canadian high pressure intrusion.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
As of 00z... Good confidenceVFR conditions all terminals through
around midnight. Afterwards, expect widespread fog development
with good confidence that at least ifr restrictions for vsby
will be breached for our coastal terminals in the early morning
hours. Moderate confidence for the same, but of shorter
duration, for our inland terminals of lbt flo.

Extended outlook... Increasing coverage of showers tstms
Tuesday through Wednesday. Flight restrictions will also be
possible each early morning due to stratus and fog.

Near term through Monday ...

as of 7 pm Sunday... Very light winds with seas of around 2 ft
continue over the waters. Have tweaked winds a bit for the
overnight hours to reflect a sometimes variable direction with a
dissipating front wavering overhead. Previous discussion
light onshore flow prevails in a weak pressure gradient so far
this afternoon. The flow is expected to veer to a southerly
direction later in the day and southwest this evening. A weak
surge may briefly build down the coast early Monday morning,
then quickly veer to the southeast and south during the day as
the sea breeze takes hold and the old front washes out. Seas
will average 2-3 ft through the period. Widely scattered showers
and tstms are possible late tonight, and they could get closer
to the long bay inshore waters during the morning before the
diurnal shift occurs.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Atlantic high pressure will produce a
southerly flow through the period. As it builds in, it will veer
around from SE to s. A trough will move east tues night into
early Wed helping to push winds around to the s-sw and increase
slightly. Overall winds will be 10 kts or less through early
tues with an increase up to 10 to 15 kts late tues into tues
night. Seas around 2 ft Mon through early Tue will increase to 2
to 4 ft late Tue into Tue night. A longer period swell up to 10
seconds will mix in with wind waves tues through tues night.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... The extended marine period will become a
bit bumpy ahead of a cold front Wednesday, as SW winds gust to
20 kt and higher Wednesday afternoon. A wind shift will migrate
across the 0- 20 nm waters early Thursday. Strong canadian high
pressure will interact with the front offshore to produce ne
winds 15-20 kt Thursday into Friday. As a result, 'caution' and
even 'advisory' headlines are possible this period. Seas of 3-5
feet can be expected Wednesday afternoon through much of Friday
before subsiding, and up to 6 feet well offshore. A few storms
may be strong Wednesday night through Thursday as a cold front
crosses the waters and radar updates are encouraged.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 99
near term... Rek srp
short term... Rgz
long term... Mjc
aviation... Rek
marine... Mjc rek rgz srp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 3 mi85 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 84°F 86°F1020.6 hPa
SSBN7 3 mi153 min 1 ft
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi45 min 1020 hPa
41108 28 mi63 min 85°F2 ft
WLON7 38 mi45 min 79°F 85°F1020.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 45 mi45 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 83°F 86°F1020 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi64 min 83°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi85 min SE 3.9 G 7.8 83°F 83°F1020.6 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi40 minSSE 410.00 miFair82°F77°F85%1020.7 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair79°F77°F95%1021 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW9SW6SW4SW7SW4W3W3W33CalmCalmSE6SE7S6S7S7SE5SE8SE5SE4SE56S6S4
1 day agoSW12SW10SW8SW10SW10SW8SW7SW7W93S8S11S14S17S16W12
2 days agoS6SW7SW10SW11SW8SW8SW5SW55SW454S11S13S14S12S14S13SW14S16SW14SW16

Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina
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Sunset Beach Bridge
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Mon -- 02:41 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:15 AM EDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 02:45 PM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Hog Inlet Pier, South Carolina
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Hog Inlet Pier
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Mon -- 01:43 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM EDT     5.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:54 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     6.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.