Friday, December15, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Sunset Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:10PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:47 PM EST (23:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:39AMMoonset 3:41PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 312 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt or less in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt or less. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft, then 2 ft after midnight. Scattered showers.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
AMZ200 312 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will cross the waters this evening. High pressure will move over the waters through the weekend shifting east and further off shore through early next week. A cold front will move across the waters late Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunset Beach, NC
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location: 33.88, -78.51     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 152327
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
627 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

A cold front will shift off the coast this evening and high
pressure will build in over the carolinas for the weekend.

With a southerly wind temperatures will rebound and move above
average by Monday and Tuesday. A cold front pushes across the
region late Tuesday to drop temperatures back again as high
pressure returns through mid to late week.

Near term through Saturday
As of 300 pm Friday... Frontal wave moving up into the outer banks.

This has dragged the trailing front back to the north of the region
and allowed the mid level cloud deck to fill in. Forecast soundings
continue to show dry air outside of this layer so still not expecting
any rain. The front will push back through to the south this evening
leading to a fairly deep layer veer to NW flow. This should lead to
a rapid clearing trend from NW to se. Lows tonight will bottom out
in the low 30s NW to upper 30s far southern zones. Highs tomorrow
will have trouble exceeding 55 in the new, cooler airmass behind the

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 3 pm Friday... A short-wave, in a deamplifying phase, will
eject across the red river valley of texas Saturday night,
gradually becoming absorbed in wsw flow on approach to the
appalachian virginias Sunday night. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the carolinas Saturday night, will slip
offshore by Sunday evening. These features will team, to produce
a sensible weather trend of warm air advection Sunday,
potentially resulting in 16-19 degree f minimum temperature
differences Sunday daybreak versus daybreak Monday, along with a
slight chance of a light rain shower very late Sunday into
early Monday. Moisture associated with the weakening short-wave,
will nearly saturate the 925-700 l and bringing the upper-
level energy across the region.Ayer late Sunday night and a few
sprinkles or light rain showers generated by weak support aloft
cannot be ruled out entirely into early Monday.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... On Monday the 12 utc runs of the ecmwf
and GFS are showing a trough cutoff low south of the 4 corners
area of the great southwest. The models begin to diverge and by
Tuesday the GFS is faster pulling the cutoff low to the east.

By Wednesday morning the GFS has dissipated this wave and it
has this feature accelerating to the east coast in the zonal
flow. The ECMWF still has a cutoff over the oklahoma and
arkansas border and the model weakens and dissipates this
features as if has moves off the east coast. Therefore
confidence in the extended forecast is not high.

The GFS models continue to show a warming trend through Tuesday
before moving a cold front through the area between Tuesday and
Wednesday and bringing down a shot of cooler temperatures, but
the ECMWF keeps the shot of colder air farther north. So the
forecast will side with the model blend and this will bring in
cooler temperatures for Wednesday.

Rainfall chances looks to be the best on Monday into Tuesday
with the favoring of the GFS solution stronger southern energy
out of the southwest and pulling the cutoff low out quicker.

With the the west-southwest flow remaining over the region
expect to see small chances of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 23z... High confidence ofVFR through the TAF period.

Mid to high levels clouds will continue to stream across the
area along a frontal boundary that has been draped across the
region the past 23 hours or so. Surface winds will become light
north around 3 kt with mid clouds decreasing. After sunrise
winds will be light nw-ne becoming SW by the end of the taf
valid period with clods dissipating and giving way to clear
skies as the front finally sags to the se..

Extended outlook...VFR.VFR tempo MVFR shra Monday through Tuesday

Near term through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... W to SW prefrontal flow regime has
relaxed near shore as the front has retrograded. This boundary
will push back through this evening turning winds to the NW and
adding some gustiness but expect wind and seas to remain below
any advisory or headline thresholds. Such winds will last into
Saturday morning but the remainder of Saturday will see high
pressure build in and much lighter if not variable wind flow.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 3 pm Friday... A welcoming and pleasant marine environment for
this period, with high pressure nearly overhead of the waters
Saturday night, slipping offshore of the 0-20 nm zones by Sunday
evening. As a result, winds will become light and variable Saturday
night, then s-sw Sunday, 12 kt or less. Sunday night as the high
offshore slips farther se, winds will trend to W early Monday up to
15 kt, as the pressure gradient tightens a bit. Still, with offshore
flow, seas will not be problematic. Light to glass conditions
Saturday night will see perhaps a lazy 10 second E swell around a
foot. Into Sunday night, sw-w wind chop will pick up a little bit.

Dry this period, except perhaps a sprinkle late Sunday and early
Monday, but no visibility restrictions are expected.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 3 pm Friday..An unsettle period for the marine forecast
with west to southwest flow on Monday into Tuesday with a cold
front pushing across the waters later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Will have to watch if small craft develop after the cold frontal
passage but otherwise seas 2 to 4 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.


near term... mbb
short term... Mjc
long term... Drh
aviation... Mac

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 3 mi40 min W 5.8 G 7.8 55°F 1014.5 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi48 min 1018 hPa (+1.1)
41108 28 mi48 min 58°F4 ft
WLON7 38 mi48 min 53°F 51°F1013.6 hPa (+1.1)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 40 mi63 min W 2.9 54°F 1013 hPa43°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 45 mi48 min SW 6 G 8 55°F 56°F1013.8 hPa (+1.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi49 min 56°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi100 min WSW 9.7 G 14 56°F 56°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi55 minW 410.00 miFair56°F39°F53%1014.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi63 minWSW 710.00 miFair55°F47°F77%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW7SW8SW5W11W7W8
1 day agoSW7SW9SW14SW12SW10
2 days agoW6W4W9NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina
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Sunset Beach Bridge
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Fri -- 12:01 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:55 AM EST     5.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:34 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:40 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:03 PM EST     4.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Hog Inlet Pier, South Carolina
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Hog Inlet Pier
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Fri -- 04:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:25 AM EST     5.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:31 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:32 PM EST     4.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:39 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.