Saturday, October21, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Sunset Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:35PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:40 AM EDT (15:40 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 7:04PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 929 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Rest of today..NE winds 10 kt...becoming e. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Isolated showers.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 929 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will move offshore of the mid-atlantic region today, and remain off the coast through Monday. A strong cold front will cross the coastal waters on Tuesday. Small craft advisory conditions will likely develop on strengthening south winds late Monday and continue through Tuesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunset Beach, NC
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location: 33.88, -78.51     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211518
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1120 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend, as high
pressure moves off to the northeast. A coastal front will bring
showers and a few thunderstorms late Monday and Tuesday. Cooler
temperatures will overspread the region through mid-week, as a
cold front sweeps off the coast.

Near term through tonight
As of 915 am Saturday... Surface high pressure in place along the
east coast along with ridging aloft will result in another warm and
dry day. Water vapor imagery shows moisture streaming up from the
gulf of mexico, however the position of the mid upper ridge will
keep the bulk of this plume west of the forecast area through
tonight. Good insolation today will yield high temperatures around
80f most locations. Some high level moisture will increase overnight
and could impact low temperatures, which are expected to range a
couple categories above normal.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 333 am Saturday... The weekend will close out with plenty
sunshine, and above normal temperatures. Moisture advection
will increase Monday bringing clouds, and rain chances late
Monday as a semi-tropical coastal warm front lifts north. This
will allow for another warm day Monday in this late october,
even with increasing clouds. Rain chances will peak Monday night
into early Tuesday as moisture and over-running aloft increase
ahead of an approaching system. The moisture sources include
sfc-700 mb atlantic and h7-h4 gulf taps. This is shown well in
model animations of pwat, depicting an elevated swath of
precipitable water surging through 00z-12z Tuesday. No cool air,
as the WAA pattern prevails this period, but a chance of
rainfall, with current QPF over a half inland along i-95 and
quarter inch near the coast Monday night.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 3 pm Friday... Week begins with highly amplified pattern
over the eastern conus. Deep 5h trough, which may or may not
become briefly cutoff, will be over the mississippi valley mon
morning and steadily moving east, pushing a cold front with it.

Mid-level ridging along the southeast will also shift east, but
the rate at which these features move ultimately determines when
showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along the front reach
the area. Strong warm advection ahead of the front will push
temps close to 10 degrees above normal Mon while ensuring
abundant moisture. Still to early to say if strong or severe
storms are a threat but low level jet Mon night and Tue will be
40-50 kt so at least some potential exists.

Front crosses the area during Tue but cold advection will be delayed
and temps will be near to slightly above climo. A shortwave dropping
southeast across the western great lakes and into the oh ky valleys
tue night drives a cold surge into the southeast wed. Cold advection
will drop 850 temps from low teens late Tue to near zero Wed night,
ushering in a 36 to 48 hour period of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
below climo. Mid-level trough axis shifts off the coast Thu morning
and lifts northeast during the day. Warm advection will already be
under way at this point but cold air will linger at the surface
through thu. Thu night or Fri will see temperatures return to levels
typical of late october in the southeast.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
As of 16z... Cirrus is spilling over the ridge and will become broken
later today. Mainly onshore flow will become calm this evening with
continued broken cirrus. Inland terminals may see a brief period of
MVFR fog around sunrise. Sunday, continued high clouds with a
stratocu ceiling possible at the inland terminals toward the end of
the forecast period.

Extended outlook... Showers and thunderstorms may result in flight
restrictions mon-tue.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 915 am Saturday... Surface high pressure stretching from the
carolinas to the mid-atlantic region will maintain northeast to
easterly flow across the coastal waters through tonight. The
pressure gradient is fairly weak and winds will be around 10 kts
or less. Seas will be 3 ft or less as well.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 333 am Saturday... A welcoming marine environment greets
mariners Sunday, but conditions deteriorate Monday as a coastal
front ahead of an approach storm system moves north across the
0-20 nm waters. This will bring limited visibility in rain and
isolated tstms Monday night and early Tuesday. A small craft
advisory will likely be needed from Monday afternoon through
Tuesday, as se-s winds gusts between 20-25 kt, and seas offshore
build to 7-8 ft overnight into Tuesday. Sunday's sea spectrum
includes 1 ft E waves every 4-5 seconds and ese waves 2 ft every
9 seconds. SE wave energy will begin to increase wave amplitude
Monday, primarily in 6-7 second intervals.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 3 pm Friday... Cold front approaching from the west will
lead to increasing southerly flow on mon. Winds start out east-
southeast 10 to 15 kt but turn more southerly during the day,
increasing to a solid 15 kt later in the day. Winds peak at 20
to 25 kt late Mon night and continue in the 20 to 25 kt range
into Tue evening before dropping under 20 kt Tue evening night
and shifting to offshore as the front passes. Seas ahead of the
front will build to 5 to 7 ft Mon night and exceed 8 ft in
places on tue. Headlines will likely be raised early Mon night
and continue through Tue and into the first part of Tue night.

Combination of offshore flow and decreased speeds late Tue night
and Wed should allow conditions to drop below headline
thresholds. Cold advection following the front is delayed so
offshore flow will not be strong right behind the front. However
cold air is expected to arrive near the end of the period and
offshore winds approach 20 kt Wed night.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Srp
short term... Mjc
long term... Iii
aviation... 43

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 3 mi92 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 73°F1026.4 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi52 min 1026 hPa
41108 28 mi40 min 74°F2 ft
WLON7 38 mi52 min 76°F 72°F1026.5 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 40 mi115 min NNE 1 72°F 1027 hPa64°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 45 mi52 min NNE 8 G 9.9 70°F 74°F1027 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 46 mi41 min 74°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi92 min NNE 9.7 G 14 69°F 74°F1026.5 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi47 minNE 510.00 miFair73°F57°F57%1026.7 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi55 minNNE 410.00 miFair73°F58°F61%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hr5NE54CalmS3S7S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3N3N4NE3N6NE5
1 day agoNE6NE7SE6SE4SE5SE4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4CalmCalmN4NE3N3N4
2 days agoNE9NE8NE11--N6N7NE9N3NE3NE5NE5N4N5N7N6N6N7NE8NE9N8N7NE8N8NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina
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Sunset Beach Bridge
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Sat -- 03:52 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:43 AM EDT     5.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:52 PM EDT     5.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Hog Inlet Pier, South Carolina
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Hog Inlet Pier
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Sat -- 02:53 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:17 AM EDT     6.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:25 PM EDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.