Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:06PM Sunday September 24, 2017 8:21 AM EDT (12:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:05AMMoonset 9:06PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 352 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft, building to 9 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft, building to 10 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft, building to 11 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft, subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft, subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
AMZ200 352 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure to the north will maintain northeast winds over the region today. Hurricane maria will move northward and pass offshore Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous winds and seas will continue for much of the upcoming week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 241037
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
637 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather today.

Hurricane maria is expected to move northward a couple of
hundred miles east of CAPE fear Monday through Wednesday.

Hazardous boating conditions, strong rip currents, and high surf
are all expected to develop. A cold front is expected to reach
the area Friday, bringing cooler weather for next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Sunday... Forecast area will remain between mid-level
ridging over the mid-atlantic states and 5h low over the eastern
gulf coast. Meanwhile, high pressure over the eastern great lakes
region will expand south as it drifts east. Dry air aloft remains
present and combined with mid-level subsidence should once again
keep the region dry through the period. Expect to see some clouds
along the sea breeze, but the dry air will keep cumulus that
develops low topped. Varying amounts of cirrus will move across the
area today and tonight with forecast soundings suggesting the cirrus
decks will be based around 25k ft. Much of it should be thin but it
is still likely to have a small impact on temps. Highs will once
again run above climo but a degree or two cooler than sat, generally
mid 80s with a few upper 80s inland. Lows will also continue running
above climo with readings in the mid 60s for much of the area.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 300 am Sunday... All eyes will be focused on hurricane
maria, moving northward across the western atlantic on Monday.

After making some precipitous shifts westward over the past
couple of days, this morning's new model runs seem to have
stabilized on the idea of maria moving northward along 73.5-74.0
degrees west longitude which would keep the center of the
hurricane about 220 miles east of CAPE fear at its closest
approach.

The upper air pattern on Monday will feature a closed 500 mb
high over the great lakes, the bermuda ridge well offshore, and
the rapidly weakening remnant upper low of former hurricane jose
in between. As jose's low dissipates, the two ridges will
bridge together. This large "wall" of high pressure should stop
maria from accelerating out to the northeast as so many western
atlantic storms do, and instead will cause a much slower north-
northwestward motion toward the gulf stream off the carolina
coast.

Given the current track and intensity of maria, we're
forecasting N NE winds to reach 15-25 mph with some 30 mph
gusts both Monday and Tuesday, highest along the coast. Moisture
should remain fairly limited this far west of the storm's
center and we're only forecasting 20-30 percent rain chances
near the coast Monday night into Tuesday, with virtually no
chance of rain for the i-95 counties. There are still some model
ensemble tracks that would give us much higher winds and rain
chances, and this situation continues to bear watching.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... The big question will be how far
offshore will maria stay. The latest global models continue to
show the center of maria slowing down and staying just offshore
cape hatteras middle of next week. A trough of low pressure will
pick up maria and carries it out to sea by late next week.

At the surface a cold front will move into the eastern
carolinas and offshore by Friday. Cooler temperatures and drier
air will move into the region for Saturday. At this time only a
chance of showers is expected on the western fringe of maria
during mid-week. With the best chances along the coast mainly
north of little river, sc. There will be a slight chance of
precipitation late Thursday and Friday.

High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the
middle to upper 80s but as the front approaches maximum
temperatures fall into the lower 80s Friday and the upper 70s on
Saturday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s
to around 70 Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Lows Friday are
expected to fall into the lower to middle 60s.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
As of 11z... High pressure over the great lakes will maintainVFR
conditions through the day. Deep northeasterly winds dry out
quite a bit with height, so although there will be some
scattered cumulus clouds developing this afternoon with bases
around 4000 feet, a subsidence inversion should cap these clouds
by 6000 feet with no potential of deeper growth. Breezy
northeast winds should exceed 12 knots along the coast today,
but models do not suggest enough wind energy within the
5000-foot mixed layer to support significant gusts.

Vfr conditions tonight could turn MVFR in the ilm vicinity late
as low stratus 1000-1500 feet agl developing across far-eastern
north carolina begins to slide southwestward.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr in fog and stratus possible during
the morning hours Monday, particularly near ilm. Brief MVFR
conditions may develop at the coastal airports as hurricane
maria brings isolated showers tue-wed as it moves n, with its
center remaining well offshore. N winds may increase to 15 to
25 kt Monday night through Wednesday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Sunday... Northeast flow will continue through the period
as surface high over the eastern great lakes builds south. The
gradient between the surface high and hurricane maria, steadily
moving north-northwest, will result in a slow but steady increase in
wind speeds through tonight. Winds increase from a solid 15 kt this
morning to 20 kt this afternoon and 20 to 25 kt overnight. Seas will
continue to increase as swell from maria continues building. Seas
currently 4 to 7 ft will build to 6 to 10 ft late in the period.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night ...

as of 300 am Sunday... All eyes will be focused on hurricane
maria, moving northward across the western atlantic on Monday.

After making some precipitous shifts westward over the past
couple of days, this morning's new model runs seem to have
stabilized on the idea of maria moving northward along 73.5-74.0
degrees west longitude which would keep the center of the
hurricane about 220 miles east of CAPE fear at its closest
approach. Assuming this track is correct and assuming the
model's depiction of maria's wind field is correct, tropical
storm-force winds could remain just outside of our coastal
waters in the CAPE fear and grand strand areas. Northeasterly
winds should back around to the north on Tuesday with wind
speeds generally in the 20-30 knot range, highest near and north
of CAPE fear. It's worth bearing mind that any significant
shift westward in maria's track would bring 35 knot winds into
the CAPE fear coastal waters.

What is completely certain is that exceptionally large swells
generated by maria will move through the coastal waters Monday
through Tuesday. Wave heights of 6-9 feet south of CAPE fear and
8-12 feet north of CAPE fear are currently in our forecast.

Peak swell periods around 14 seconds imply extremely long wave
lengths. These waves will begin to feel bottom in fairly deep
water, and breaking waves will occur miles from shore in some
spots. Breakers should occur along the entire length of frying
pan shoals even 30 miles from shore! It's situations like these
that have earned us the name "graveyard of the atlantic."
long term Wednesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Winds will shift to the northwest on
Wednesday. Seas are expected to range from 5 to 9 feet north
cape fear and drop down to 4 to 6 feet south of CAPE fear on
Wednesday, subsiding on Thursday as maria moves away from the
area.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... High rip current risk through late tonight for scz054-056.

High surf advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for scz054-056.

Nc... High rip current risk through late tonight for ncz106-108-110.

High surf advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for ncz106-108-110.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Iii
short term... Tra
long term... Drh
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi52 min 80°F6 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 21 mi97 min NNE 1 70°F 1016 hPa
SSBN7 22 mi142 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 22 mi74 min NE 12 G 14 72°F 80°F1015.8 hPa
WLON7 24 mi52 min 71°F 78°F1016.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi53 min 78°F6 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi74 min NE 12 G 21 75°F 78°F1015.8 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi52 min N 8 G 9.9 71°F 80°F1015.5 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi32 min NE 19 G 23 78°F 82°F9 ft1014.5 hPa72°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi74 min ENE 19 G 23 77°F 80°F1015 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 47 mi52 min 1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi32 minNNE 510.00 miFair70°F68°F96%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N7N6N6N5SE5E6--E5SE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3NE3N3N4N5
1 day agoCalmN3N4E7E5SE8SE6SE5E3SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4W4NW5NW3S3SE4S5S5CalmS4SW4NE8SW6W4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:41 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     5.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:10 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:12 PM EDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.43.42.41.30.70.5123.14.255.35.14.33.32.11.20.70.91.62.63.64.34.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:49 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:14 AM EDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:20 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.33.52.41.50.70.511.9344.754.94.33.32.21.30.80.91.62.63.54.24.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.