Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:09PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 10:04 AM EST (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:30PMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 948 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft this afternoon. A slight chance of rain late this morning, then a chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers with isolated tstms.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 948 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Unsettled marine conditions will persist through Thursday as another complex storm system moves up the coast. This system will be followed by drier and cooler weather as high pressure builds in for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 141134
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
634 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times today late today
through early Thursday, will be followed by drier and cooler
weather into the weekend. A cold front will cross the coast
Monday night, bringing a surge of cooler air next Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Wednesday... Only scattered to isolated patches of
light rain and drizzle remain over the area this morning as
isentropic lift has all but shut off. More concentrated activity
resides inland. This lull will persist for a few more hours
before moisture and lift increase with developing low pressure
across the florida panhandle. This system will move up the coast
later tonight with some heavy rainfall possible. The quick
moving nature of the system and tepid rainfall amounts from the
previous system precludes the need for a flash flood watch. Some
indication of a similar severe setup as early Tuesday morning
along coastal areas but this should be more for daytime hours
Thursday. Temperatures will move little today struggling to
reach the 50s. Similar story for tonight and readings may even
rise a bit along the coast late.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 300 am Wednesday... A closed mid upper-level low will lift
across the ohio river valley Thursday. Deep moisture from the
gulf of mexico will surge northward across the carolinas ahead
of this feature. Upper-level diffluence will enhance lift
primarily on the west side of the surface front to produce
widespread rainfall through at least midday Thursday. Current
qpf projections are for areal average of 1-1.5" inches of rain
over most of the forecast area daytime Thursday. The quasi-
stationary frontal boundary will waver along the coast as a
surface low rides up the coastline Thursday morning, and
depending on exact timing and location, portions of coastal
counties may experience a predawn surge in temps before the low
moves north and winds become northwest. SPC continues a marginal
risk of severe weather over far eastern areas Thursday morning
for possible damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Rain will
taper off from southwest to northeast Thursday afternoon, with
high temperatures ranging from around 50 inland to the mid upr
60s at the beaches. Again, depending on exact location of the
front Thursday morning, the high temperatures along the coast
may be realized in the early morning. The atmospheric column
will dry out rather abruptly Thursday afternoon above 850 mb,
but lingering low-level moisture is expected to result in some
low cloudiness hanging on well into Thursday night, before
beginning to clear west to east before dawn Friday.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Zonal flow aloft will usher surface high
pressure from the gulf coast states into the area Saturday.

Sunday into Monday, the high will slide off to the northeast as
a trough digs across the great lakes and into the mid-atlantic
region. High temps by Sunday and Monday should reach the low-mid
60s before a cooler airmass arrives Monday night, setting the
stage for highs in the mid-upper 50s for Tuesday. See no
significant chance for precipitation during the period.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 12z... MVFR conditions to prevail today at all terminals except
for ilm, which is currentlyVFR and forecasted to remain so until
tonight. Ifr ceilings at lbt should lift to MVFR over the next few hours.

Developing low pressure system in the mississippi valley will move
northeast and bring rain into the area tonight into tomorrow, with
heavy rain possible at times. Expect ceilings to lower back down to
ifr overnight as precipitation becomes more widespread and steady.

Winds strong from north-northeast around 10 kts. Expect to remain
northeasterly around 10 kts with gusts around 20 kts across the area
into tomorrow morning.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr continuing through thurs as another
low pressure system lifts across the southeast through mid
week, leaving unsettled weather. Drier,VFR conditions Friday
into the weekend.

Marine
As of 530 am Wednesday... Winds and seas now increasing quickly
across the waters with 41013 reporting 23 knots with five foot
seas. This will be the story for the near term as the northeast
flow only increases further to a range of 25-30 knots. With
frequent gusts of at least 34 kt especially this evening, went
ahead and hoisted a gale warning. Significant seas will increase
from the current 4-6 feet to a healthy 6-8 feet by early
Thursday.

Surface low pressure slides up through the area Thursday morning,
with south east winds early in the day becoming out of the west
by late aftn Thursday night. Although seas should drop off to
below 6 ft by this point, winds with frequent gusts to 25 kt
will continue through early Fri morning, so the small craft
advisory will remain in effect.

Weakening NW winds Friday will become more northerly Saturday
and Sunday, and the pressure gradient will weaken as the high
settles just north of the waters.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 4 am est Thursday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis...

near term... Shk
short term... Mas crm
long term... Crm
aviation... Vao
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi185 min 67°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 21 mi177 min NNE 16 G 23 55°F 66°F1024.5 hPa
WLON7 24 mi167 min 51°F 60°F1025.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi185 min 67°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi177 min NE 18 G 25 55°F 67°F1024.8 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi167 min N 16 G 20 51°F 67°F1025.8 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi35 min NNE 25 G 31 64°F 73°F1024.9 hPa59°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi177 min NE 23 G 29 60°F 74°F1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi85 minNNE 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast51°F45°F81%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6SW4S4SW7W6W6W7CalmCalmCalmN4N7N6N7N7N9
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G14

Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:20 AM EST     1.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:04 PM EST     4.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:09 PM EST     1.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.33.83.12.21.51.21.21.82.73.64.34.854.84.13.22.31.51.21.422.83.54

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:41 AM EST     1.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:10 PM EST     4.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:30 PM EST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.632.21.61.111.42.23.13.84.34.54.43.93.12.31.61.11.11.62.43.13.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.