Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:02PM Friday February 22, 2019 11:01 AM EST (16:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 9:02AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 614 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon est today...
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers this morning, then a chance of rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late this morning.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 ft.
AMZ200 614 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in from the north today, bringing gusty ne through tonight. The high will move offshore on Saturday. Warmer weather is then expected Sunday ahead of a cold front that will cross the coast Sunday evening. High pressure will build in through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221542
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1042 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
Cool high pressure will build in from the north today before
moving offshore Saturday. Warmer weather is expected Sunday
ahead of a cold front, that will cross the coast during Sunday
evening. High pressure will build in through early next week.

Near term through Saturday
As of 333 am Friday... Temperature trends today will look like
nighttime traces, with falling air temperatures in wake of a
cold front amid moderate cold air advection. Dewpoints to drop
into the 40s with 10-meter winds peaking between 18z-00z, 11-13
knots sustained on average. The cooling into already saturated
air will result in occasional drizzle, while frontal convergence
helps to spur a few showers, and enhance isentropic lift aloft.

The low QPF pattern continues as stronger upper forcing remains
well N and W of the area, but a damp period today and tonight
with wetting expected, and favored from NW to SE respectively.

Max-t forecasts show a substantial gradient of temperatures due
to the front, middle 50s northern SE nc, to middle 60s interior
ne sc. Saturday over-running atop cool air damming, but again,
heavier rainfall to remain nw-n of the area, the enough to have
clouds and damp conditions, and occasional -ra dz due to the
near saturated air.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 333 am Friday... Seemingly endless moisture laden pattern
will finally be on the move through the short term period. One
last (at least for a while) potent mid level storm system will
be moving through the middle mississippi valley which will push
a cold front through the area late Sunday into early Monday.

Decent pops with the front but most of the connection to the
gulf of mexico is waning and for now likely values will suffice.

Yet another very warm day Sunday but cooling off by Monday
morning.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 333 am Friday... Mostly dry through the first part of the
extended period with temperatures at or just above climatology.

A diffuse and broad system may bring the next chance of showers
to the area mid week on but the system doesn't look too
organized at this point and relatively low chance pops remain in
the forecast.

Aviation 16z Friday through Tuesday
As of 18z... Surface ridge wedge has set up once again with some
light showers overrunning the cool air. Look for ifr conditions to
prevail for most of the forecast period. A brief window of MVFR
conditions is possible this afternoon, becoming ifr once again this
evening. Ifr conditions are expected to last through the end of the
forecast period.

Extended outlook... Sub-vfr will likely prevail early Sunday before
another cold front pushes through lifting toVFR late Sunday through
Wednesday.

Marine
As of 333 am Friday... Roughening seas forthcoming in wake of a
cold front as NE winds increase to 20 kt, and seas near 6 feet
offshore and north of CAPE fear by late today. An SCA may be
needed, but will access sea heights for the daybreak updates to
see if SCA flags are needed. Residual SE swell will be overtaken
and masked by increasing shorter crest NE wind-seas today. This
will produce steep seas. Winds to ease Saturday, seas
recovering only slowly so expect heights of 4-5 ft offshore even
Saturday with periods of 6-7 seconds. Fog to plague the waters
this morning until drying later today, and a marine dense fog
advisory is posted this morning, thickest fog inshore.

The strongest winds and highest seas will occur ahead of
the cold front Sunday. A southwest flow of 20-25 knots will develop
for a good part of the day. Significant seas will eclipse small craft
criteria during this time as well. Beyond this high pressure will
build in but without strong cold air advection, the winds will be
somewhat modest, well below any flag criteria, same for seas.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
ncz107.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until noon est today for amz250-252-254-256.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Saturday for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Mjc
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi31 min 55°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 21 mi53 min ENE 9.7 G 16 57°F 55°F1023.7 hPa
WLON7 24 mi31 min 55°F 53°F1025.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi31 min 54°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi53 min E 18 G 25 53°F 55°F1024.1 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi31 min NE 18 G 20 54°F 54°F1025.4 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi31 min NE 16 G 19 65°F 69°F1023.8 hPa62°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi53 min ENE 21 G 29 59°F 65°F1023.8 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi81 minNE 8 G 1810.00 miOvercast55°F55°F100%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W7SW8W9SW5SW5SW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE6NE5NE9NE7NE8
G15
1 day agoE6E4E5E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmN5N3N4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
2 days agoNE5E6
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Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
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Fri -- 03:08 AM EST     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:01 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:38 AM EST     5.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:33 PM EST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:09 PM EST     5.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.81.1-0.3-0.9-0.60.523.54.75.55.64.93.51.90.4-0.6-0.70.11.42.84.15.15.55.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:29 AM EST     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:01 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:44 AM EST     5.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM EST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:15 PM EST     5.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.40.1-0.8-0.70.11.534.255.14.63.52.10.7-0.3-0.7-0.20.92.33.64.554.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.