Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 1:43 PM   Moonset 2:24 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 329 Am Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Today - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds. Fri - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 17 seconds. Sat - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 3 ft at 18 seconds. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 18 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt early, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 3 ft. Patchy fog. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. Mixed swell W 3 to 5 ft and S 3 ft.

PZZ600 329 Am Pdt Thu May 16 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 10z, or 3 am pdt, a 1028 mb surface high was centered 800 nm west of portland, oregon. A 1002 mb thermal low was located just south of las vegas.

FXUS66 KLOX 161220 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 520 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
16/353 AM.

Strong onshore flow and a persistent marine layer will remain in place through the middle of next week. Night through morning low clouds and fog will be a staple of the forecast, clearing to the beaches each afternoon. Breezy to gusty onshore winds will occur each afternoon and evening across the interior valleys and adjacent foothill areas.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/354 AM.

The latest satellite imagery shows a blocking ridge of high pressure firmly in place over the eastern Pacific Ocean early this morning. An upper-level trough pushing through the Four Corners area continues to exit the region early this morning. Strong onshore flow remains across the area with a marine layer depth well entrenched along the central and southern California coast.
KLAX AMDAR soundings indicate the marine layer depth up to around 3500 feet deep this morning, slightly deeper than what local 3-km WRF solutions suggest. Given the depth of the marine layer, it is not surprising to see low clouds and fog pushing well into the coastal slopes of the mountains this morning.

Strong onshore pressure gradients will keep a deep marine layer depth in place over the next several days. Low clouds will struggle to clear from the land mass each afternoon. With minimal changes expected in the pressure gradients through the weekend, a May Gray pattern is well underway. Night through morning low clouds and fog will be a staple of the forecast for the near future. Patchy night through morning drizzle will occur at times, especially as an upper-level trough of low pressure near 30N and 135W drifts slowly to the east through the weekend and provide a bit more dynamics aloft to squeeze some precipitation out of the moisture associated with the marine layer.

Away from the coast into the interior portions of the area, breezy to gusty onshore winds will create elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon and evening hours when warmer daytime temperatures and drier humidities combine with breezy to gusty winds. Over the next several days, winds will be marginal for advisory levels, but as the upper-level trough of low pressure draws closer to the area over the weekend, winds could approach advisory levels. EPS solutions suggest wind gusts approaching advisory levels on Saturday afternoon and evening, and again on Sunday afternoon and evening at KPMD and KWJF.

Lingering instability from the trough could bring a few isolated showers to the mountains, but it will likely just be some clouds over the mountains this afternoon and evening. Moisture parameters are down much from yesterday, but PoPs are non-zero over the mountains this afternoon and evening. As the trough offshore move closer to the region, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Ventura and Santa Barbara County mountains could reenter the forecast over the weekend during the afternoon and evening hours. Stay tuned to the latest as this could be a wrinkle that changes the forecast.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/349 AM.

A deep marine layer depth and strong onshore flow is likely to continue into early half of next week, keeping the forecast near persistence into at least Tuesday. The forecast changes little as a deep marine layer and expansive low clouds field could bring the threat of night through morning drizzle along the South Coast of California.

The forecast ensemble members are highlighting the potential for a weak trough of low pressure dropping south down the coast between Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty northerly winds appear in a majority of the EPS ensemble members at KSDB and KSBA, but there is some spread in the ensemble members into late next week. Pattern recognition in the deterministic solutions would confirm the possibility of a tightening northerly gradient for late next week.

AVIATION
16/1220Z.

At 10Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 6500 feet with a temperature of 18 C.

Widespread clouds across the entire area early this morning with the exception of the Antelope Valley, most mountain locations and the far interior valleys of SLO and SBA Counties.
Conds were mostly MVFR, except IFR north of Point Conception, and LIFR to VLIFR in the foothills and mtn slopes. Expect slow clearing today, with skies clearing by noon in the valleys and early afternoon across interior sections of the coastal plain. It will likely stay cloudy near the coast, but cigs may rise into the VFR category. Expect similar conds tonight, with clouds in all coasts, valley and mtn slope areas. Conds will be mostly MVFR, except LIFR to VLIFR in the foothills and mtns.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that cigs will scatter out between 21Z and 02Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that cigs will persist thru the day.

MARINE
16/506 AM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
There is a 30% chance that winds will reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels in the southern two zones (PZZ673/676) this afternoon and eve, and a 30% chance of SCA level winds/seas in the entire outer waters Sun thru Mon. Otherwise SCA conds are not expected.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, high forecast confidence.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels thru Tue.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate to high forecast confidence. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the western portion of the SBA Channel this afternoon/evening and again Mon afternoon. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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El Segundo
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Thu -- 12:02 AM PDT     2.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:24 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:09 AM PDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:00 PM PDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:42 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:56 PM PDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM PDT     Sunset
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El Segundo, Santa Monica Bay, California, Tide feet

Santa Monica
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Thu -- 02:24 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:59 AM PDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:53 AM PDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:43 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:46 PM PDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM PDT     Sunset
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Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California (2), Tide feet

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