Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Isle Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:59PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:51 AM EDT (06:51 UTC) Moonrise 2:10AMMoonset 4:32PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1100 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...then 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 10 kt...becoming sw. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1100 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak pressure pattern will persist across the waters through the week with isolated showers and Thunderstorms possible. A cold front will approach the waters this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Isle Beach, NC
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location: 33.91, -78.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 180524
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
124 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
High heat and humidity will continue across the area into
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over
the weekend ahead of a weak cold front, which will likely stall
near the area. Another cold front will push through the area
next week, with unsettled weather expected to continue.

Near term through today
As of 730 pm Thursday... Convection has faded with the setting
sun. Have updated forecast accordingly, with only a slight
chance for showers during the overnight period. Relevant potion
of previous discussion follows:
expect convection to dissipate into the overnight hours, with
low temperatures dipping into the mid 70's. Do not anticipate
much in the way of fog develop or low CIGS as lingering mid to
high level clouds are expected into the morning hours.

On Friday, weak riding aloft will set up across the area ahead of an
approaching weak cold front which is expected to affect the
area this weekend. With high temperatures in the lower 90's and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70's, anticipate heat indices in
the 100's once again. At this time, do not expect all areas to
reach heat advisory criteria, but it more than likely will be
warranted for portions of the area. Will mention the potential
for typical summertime isolated to scattered convection in the
afternoon hours with diurnal heating, lingering boundaries and
available low level moisture.

Short term tonight through Saturday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... Longwave trough digging across the oh vly
will drop SE into Saturday night, pushing a surface cold front into
the area. Ahead of this feature, deep SW flow advects tremendous
moisture in the form of pwats over 2.25 inches Saturday, which
should serve as fuel for convection along the front, especially
Saturday aftn eve where it merges with the sea breeze. This is in
response to continued very warm and unstable air, with MLCAPE over
2000 j kg likely as highs rise into the low 90s and dewpoints remain
at least the mid 70s, if not near 80 in some places. Most of this
convection should wane with loss of heating, but should refocus
offshore as the front stalls in the vicinity. Temps Saturday night
will be cooler than we have seen in many days as some dry advection
works into the column, pushing mins into the mid 70s, down from near
80 Friday night.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Stalled front really losing its identity to
our west on Sunday while light zonal mid level flow helps to confine
deepest moisture and thus best rain chances along the coast. This
front appears to wash out completely by Monday leaving behind some
weak troughiness on Monday. This doesn't elucidate much regarding
eclipse view especially along the coast since in such a
setup cumulus development should be fairly widespread and vertically
vigorous. Tuesday should represent the lowest rainfall chances
during the period with a pinned seabreeze, zonal flow aloft, and a
piedmont trough to our west. Energetic northwest flow and the next
cold front arrive on Wednesday. This front may have a better chance
than the early week boundary in clearing the area at least in part
on Thursday as there is a stronger upper trough and higher surface
pressures driving its progress.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
As of 06z... Expect mostlyVFR conditions through the period. The
synoptic situation remains intact with slightly lower chances
for convection later today via less forcing. The fog potential
for this morning appears less as well with just a little more
wind in the boundary layer.

Extended outlook... Potential for MVFR ifr into the weekend with
unsettled weather in association with an impending cold front.

Additional possibility of patchy stratus fog towards daybreak each
day.

Marine
Near term through Friday ...

as of 730 pm Thursday... Light winds with seas of only 2 ft or
less continue across the waters this evening. Forecast good to
go with no changes needed. Previous discussion follows:
southwest winds around 10 kts this evening into the overnight
hours will increase to 10 to 15 kts Friday afternoon ahead of an
approaching weak cold front. Seas of 2 ft are expected through
the period, with 3 fters gradually building in across the outer
waters.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Cold front approaching from the NW will
stall just inland from the coast Saturday. This leaves SW flow
across the waters, with wind speeds around 15 kts through the
period. These winds will help drive a 3-4 ft 5sec SW wind wave
atop the persistent 8-9 sec SE swell, and seas will be 2-4 ft
across all waters.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Very light southwesterly flow Sunday
and Monday with a cold front decaying into a weak surface
trough. Seas will be running their fairly 'normal' 2-3 and
occasionally 4 ft. The trough may wash out for a time Monday
night for some light and variable winds but it reforms Tuesday
for a return of south to southwesterly flow, likely capped at
10kt.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... Rek sgl
short term... Jdw
long term... mbb
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 7 mi111 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 7 mi43 min SW 9.7 G 12 84°F 85°F1014.3 hPa
41108 23 mi51 min 84°F2 ft
WLON7 32 mi51 min 81°F 83°F1014.4 hPa (-1.1)
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 33 mi51 min 1013.8 hPa (-1.1)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi51 min S 11 G 12 83°F 84°F1013.7 hPa (-1.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 39 mi52 min 83°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi43 min SSW 9.7 G 16 83°F 83°F1014.3 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi41 min SSW 9.7 G 12 84°F 84°F1014.7 hPa81°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi56 minSSW 410.00 miFair82°F79°F92%1014.9 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi58 minSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds83°F81°F94%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S3SE5S7S6SE5NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N8N7N4CalmSE4S5S6S5SE6E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS4SW5SW6SW5S7S6SW5S7SW6SW7SW8NW8W7CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:55 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:00 PM EDT     5.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.71.62.83.94.64.64.13.11.90.80-0.20.21.32.84.35.45.85.54.63.52.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:48 AM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:01 AM EDT     -1.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     5.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:46 PM EDT     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.30.82.13.44.24.43.931.60.3-0.8-1.2-0.80.31.83.44.75.45.44.73.41.80.2-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.