Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 3:42 AM   Moonset 4:28 PM

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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 914 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Overnight - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 914 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will occur through Tue due to passage of several upper level disturbances, diurnal heating, and the daily sea breeze. Bermuda high pressure and the piedmont trough will combine to produce modest sw winds Tue through Fri.

FXUS62 KILM 060111 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 911 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure with warmer than normal temperatures through mid week.
A cold frontal passage will then bring cooler and drier weather for late week and this weekend.

UPDATE
Early evening convection has dissipated. Latest hi-res guidance is downplaying chance for showers to advect onshore late tonight, and latest radar trends reflect a SW trajectory with the current activity well off the NE SC coast. Therefore have lowered PoPs for late tonight. but activity should begin to blossom by mid-morning Monday. Could see patchy fog develop after midnight, particularly in areas that received rainfall this afternoon/evening, but with a light southerly wind stirring, confidence remains somewhat low.

Have cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory for downtown, as water levels topped out just below flooding thresholds.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure over the Great Lakes and trailing front will lift off to the northeast and will help to push trough eastward as shortwave exits the coast this evening. This will combine with loss of heating. Therefore expect rain chances to diminish into tonight. A weak ridge will build up through the Southeast into early Mon and therefore expect the possibility of a few showers over the coast toward morning and possibility of fog or low clouds, mainly where rain fell, but otherwise mainly quiet overnight. Temps will remain in the mid 60s for lows most places.

Expect thunderstorm activity to pick up into Mon aftn as another shortwave approaches from the west. Greatest lift and axis of moisture will be over the I-95 corridor by mid to late aftn on Mon with pcp water values up to 1.7 inches. This will shift eastward through the area into early evening. High temps for Mon will be in the low to mid 80s.

Issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor coastal flooding along the Cape Fear River withing a couple of hours surrounding high tide this evening which will occur around 830 pm.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Highlights: *Much above normal temps *Little to no severe storm/flood risk

Confidence: *Moderate to High

Details: High pressure offshore and an inland trough will prevail at the surface along with periodic weak disturbances aloft. This will keep it warm and muggy with some showers and storms at times, especially Tuesday afternoon/evening during peak heating. Temps will be on an upswing, staying well above normal, with mid to upper 60s generally each night (warmest Tuesday night) and mid to upper 80s for highs Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Highlights: *Much above normal temps through at least Thursday; possible record high at Wilmington Wednesday *Possible elevated risk of severe storms Thursday

Confidence: *Low to Moderate through Friday *Moderate to High Friday night through Sunday

Details: High pressure centered offshore along with a trough inland should prevail until a cold front moves through later in the work week, although timing of this frontal passage is uncertain as the latest guidance suggests it will be earlier than previously thought.
Given the mostly zonal flow aloft, there is some uncertainty regarding timing of shortwaves, and thus the rain/cloud coverage which will impact temps to some extent. Cooler and drier weather will then move in after the cold front passes later in the week and continue over the weekend.

The warmest temperatures this period should be Wednesday and Thursday when they'll be near 90 for highs. No records are expected to be reached, although could come the closest at Wilmington on Wednesday (92 degrees). Heat indices should stay mostly in the mid 90s or less so no Heat Advisories are anticipated. Temps should fall Friday as a cold front approaches, possibly even more so than currently forecast depending on the timing of the frontal passage.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Bermuda high pressure will result in moist southerly- southwesterly flow through Monday. Afternoon convection has dissipated, and the possibility of a late night shower advecting onshore appears to be lessening. Scattered shower/tstm activity should begin to blossom inland Monday afternoon as heights fall in advance of a weak shortwave. Have included VCTS for KFLO and KLBT.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic visibility and ceiling restrictions Monday aftn into Tuesday.
Otherwise, looking at VFR dominating late Tuesday through at least Wednesday night with limited convection. Storms should increase again later Thursday ahead of a cold front, possibly clearing for Friday depending on the frontal timing which could be a bit earlier than previously anticipated.

MARINE
Through Monday... Southerly winds will continue over the waters with S-SE winds shifting to a more S-SW direction into Mon. Sea breeze will back winds and produce increasing gusts each aftn. Seas will remain around 3 to 4 ft, dominated mainly by short period wind waves.

Monday night through Friday...The local waters will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough maintaining southerly winds until a cold front moves through, possibly on Friday. Should see elevated winds/seas through the period with winds gusting to near Small Craft Advisory levels (25+ kt) at times, especially each afternoon/evening due to the sea breeze. Seas should mostly stay below 6 ft but could reach SCA levels briefly on Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Sun -- 12:41 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:00 PM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     5.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina, Tide feet

Holden Beach
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Sun -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:45 AM EDT     -1.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:11 PM EDT     5.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Holden Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

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