Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Isle Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:17PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 11:14 PM EDT (03:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:23AMMoonset 6:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 753 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming sw 25 to 30 kt late this evening...then diminishing to 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 5 to 7 ft...building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft... Subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 753 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Showers and Thunderstorms will be widespread tonight before ending late. A cold front on Thursday will bring isolated to scattered showers and a few Thunderstorms. High pressure will build in Thursday night and Friday and remain into the weekend. A cold front will reach into the carolinas early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Isle Beach, NC
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location: 33.91, -78.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 250015
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
815 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
Additional showers and thunderstorms will precede the passage
of a cold front on Thursday. High pressure will build in late
Thursday into Friday and persist into the weekend, bringing dry
weather and increasing heat. A cold front will reach into the
carolinas early next week finally moving off shore by mid week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 800 pm Wednesday... The eastern carolinas are in the warm
sector of 993 mb low pressure centered near cincinnati, ohio.

The cold front extending south from this low has reached the
mountains of western nc and extends down through georgia. This
front should sweep east and through the eastern carolinas late
tonight.

Tornado watch #266 has been cancelled for the counties in our
forecast area. Instability never recovered behind the mid-
afternoon area of thunderstorms, and despite strong low-level
wind shear and reasonably good 0-1 km helicity the lack of
surface-based instability should preclude a severe weather
threat overnight. I have maintained a 60 percent chance of
showers in the forecast mainly through midnight, with
precipitation chances diving rapidly after midnight as drier air
begins to move in from the west.

No reports of severe weather have been received from the pair of
tornado-warned storms we had in darlington and bladen counties
this afternoon. In both cells it's possible marginal low-level
lapse rates kept the circulation aloft from descending down to
ground level. Given a healthy radar presentation, it might be
an interesting local study to see how well correlated steep low
level lapse rates are with verified tornado touchdowns...

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Deep low pressure system will continue
to lift rapidly off to the northeast thurs night. Plenty of dry
air will advect in with westerly winds on the back end. Pcp
water values around an inch thurs eve will drop below .75 inches
through early Fri with sfc dewpoint temps down into the mid 50s.

Overall expect clearing skies thurs night with temps dropping
down closer to 60 for overnight lows and plenty of sunshine on
Friday bringing temps back up into the mid 80s most places.

Surface winds will back to the SW Fri evening allowing for some
moisture return bringing dewpoint temps up to around 60 or so.

This will keep overnight lows Fri night several degrees warmer
than previous night, down into the mid 60s most places.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Ridge will build up from the gulf
coast on Saturday as surface high shifts east and off the
florida coast. This will maintain a warm and increasing moist
flow with rising heights in the mid levels. The 850 temps will
be up to 16 to 18c on Saturday. Overall expect plenty of
sunshine and well above normal temps on Saturday, reaching
around 90 most places. A minor perturbation riding over the
ridge overnight Saturday should produce some clouds and maybe a
spotty shower but will move off the coast by early Sunday.

Expect high pressure to hold with plenty of dry air and
subsidence in the mid levels to maintain a cap on convection
through early Sunday. The ECMWF is more bullish with a digging northern
stream shortwave pushing a cold front south and east toward the
carolinas on Sunday and suppressing ridge farther south. This
could lead to greater potential for clouds and showers and
slightly less warm temps, but for now will lean more toward the
gfs and keep a more optimistic forecast for sunnier and warmer
weather on Sunday. If GFS forecast holds, mid level heights
will continue to rise through the weekend as ridge builds up
from the south and temps will rise up around 90 again on
Sunday.Overall confidence is lower through early next week as a
slow moving cold front reaches into the carolinas and finally
moves off the coast on Tuesday or possibly not until wed.

Therefore should see increasing chc of showers Sun aftn through
mon. Temps will continue to rise well into the 80s Mon through
wed. A moist summertime like air mass will keep overnight lows

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 00z Wednesday... Breezy southwest winds along the coast
could gust over 25 knots now through about 06z. One or two more
bands of showers are anticipated tonight before drier air
builds in from the west late. Showers with embedded
thunderstorms currently extending south of augusta, ga should
reach flo around 01z; myr, cre and lbt around 02z, and ilm
around 03z. Near these showers ceilings should fall to around
1500 feet (MVFR) with visibilities 4-5 miles. After 1-2 hours
these showers should exit off to the northeast and attention
will then shift to what should be a weakening line of showers
along the actual surface cold front advancing eastward from
georgia. Once this feature makes it to the coast around 06-07z,
vfr conditions are expected to develop and last through
Thursday.

With gusty southwest winds expected Thursday, only isolated
showers are expected during the afternoon hours.

Extended outlook... Localized MVFR conditions are possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons
and evenings.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 800 pm Wednesday... Strong low pressure located over the
ohio valley will push a cold front eastward from georgia across
the carolina coastal waters late tonight. Before the front gets
here, a period of strong southerly winds is expected overnight
with gusts probably reaching 30 knots at times. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this evening
and last through about 3 am before drier air arrives from the
west and reduces the potential of rain. Wind directions should
veer more southwesterly late as the front crosses.

Seas of 5-6 feet should increase to as large as 8 feet out
toward 20 miles from shore overnight as the stronger winds churn
the sea surface up. A small craft advisory remains in effect.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Marine conditions will improve thurs
night into Fri in a diminishing off shore westerly flow. The
offshore flow will keep highest seas farther off the coast.

Initially sw-w flow between 20 and 30 kts will maintain seas of
4 to 8 ft but by Fri morning seas will drop down to 3 to 5 ft in
westerly winds 15 to 20 kts. Therefore the small craft advisory
in effect will expire Fri morning.

Winds and seas will continue to diminish with westerly winds
dropping down to 10 kts or less by Fri evening. Winds will back
slightly Fri night becoming more SW around high pressure to the
south, remaining around 10 kts or less.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure to the south will
maintain a SW return flow 10 to 15 mph through much of the
period. Seas between 2 and 4 ft will rise up to 3 to 5 ft on
Sunday with increasing winds up to 15 to 20 kts as a cold front
makes its way toward the carolinas. Tightened gradient flow
between slow moving cold front to the west and high pressure to
the south and east may push winds up to 15 to 20 kts through
early next week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Rjd
near term... Tra
short term... Rek
long term... Rgz
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 7 mi66 min S 16 G 21 74°F 76°F1002 hPa
SSBN7 7 mi134 min 4 ft
41108 23 mi27 min 76°F6 ft
WLON7 32 mi44 min 72°F 77°F1002.1 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 33 mi89 min SW 8.9 72°F 1004 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 33 mi44 min 1000.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi44 min SSE 23 G 27 74°F 75°F1001.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 39 mi45 min 74°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi66 min S 19 G 27 74°F 74°F1002.6 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi34 min S 21 G 25 75°F 77°F1003.3 hPa72°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi19 minS 10 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F70°F90%1002.7 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi21 minS 11 G 1910.00 miLight Rain74°F71°F91%1001.3 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW7W9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmSE4S4S4S7
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2 days agoE3E4SE3SE3CalmS6S7SW7SW6SW8SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:42 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:24 AM EDT     5.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:45 PM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.3-0.40.21.42.94.254.94.12.91.50.2-0.7-0.9-0.21.234.75.86.15.54.42.9

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:29 AM EDT     -1.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:39 PM EDT     -1.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:10 PM EDT     6.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-1.3-0.50.92.53.94.954.42.91.2-0.5-1.5-1.6-0.90.52.34.15.56.25.84.62.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.