Friday, September21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Isle Beach, NC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:14PM Friday September 21, 2018 12:01 PM EDT (16:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 2:38AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1104 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Rest of today..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt, diminishing to 10 kt or less after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt or less, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1104 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will prevail through most of the weekend. The high will shift offshore early next weekend, bringing increasing moisture and rain chances Sunday and Monday. Light to moderate onshore winds are expected through the period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Isle Beach, NC
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location: 33.91, -78.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211508
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1106 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

High pressure will prevail through the middle of next week. A
weak cold front will drop into north carolina late Sunday into
early Monday. The high will shift offshore and as a trough of
low pressure approaches from the east Tuesday, resulting in a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will
approach the region from the northwest later next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1100 am Friday... No changes to the forecast. 12z chs raob
ensuring that things stay dry today fortunately to as to allow for
good recovery weather and also so as to not exacerbate ongoing river

As of 300 am Friday... High pressure extending down from the
north will migrate slowly southward orienting itself over the
carolinas with center almost directly overhead by tonight. The
mid to upper ridge will also be overhead providing plenty of
dry air and subsidence. This will keep showers at bay through
tonight. Unfortunately as conditions remain dry, rivers will
continue to rise and extensive flooding will continue as the
flood wave makes its way down along some of the major rivers.

Overall expect plenty of sunshine with temps in the mid 80s
most places.

Decent radiational cooling will occur tonight with clear skies
and diminishing on shore winds becoming near calm winds as high
pressure moves overhead, leading to temps in the mid 60s most
places and fog, patchy this morning and a bit more widespread
tonight as the high reaches overhead.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 345 am Friday... Mid level high pressure will dominate this
period. At the start of this period, the high will be nearly
overhead, then is progged to push off the carolinas and offshore
by the end of this period. The "push" is from the expanding
polar westerlies aided by progressive mid-level S W trofs that
basically bypass just north of the fa. The sfc cool front
dropping southward is progged to stall just north of the ilm
cwa. The sfc high behind the cool front will try to expand down
the east coast of the u.S., however the CAA will be lacking this
far south. Pops will be isolated at best for sat, the peak of
the upper ridging. For Sun thru Sun night, have indicated pops
ahead of the cool front possibly reaching the northern portions
of the fa. Pops from a progressing easterly wave will reach the
ilm CWA coast by the end of this period. Thus, the hiest pops in
the short term will be occurring at the end of this period.

Stayed with a MOS guidance consensus with both MAX and min

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 320 pm Thursday... High pressure at the surface will shift
off the coast. Onshore flow will begin to increase the moisture
on Sunday as a frontal boundary stalls well to the north of our
area. What this means is chance for showers and thunderstorms
increases to the 30 to 40% chance of diurnal showers through
Wednesday. A cold front approaches the area from the west on

High temperatures will be in the 83 to 87 degree range with lows
in the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
As of 12z... Looking atVFR conditions thruout the day except
possible residual morning br at the start of the 12z tafs. High
pressure sfc and aloft will dominate the local wx this period
with no low ceilings expected except for possible mid-deck of
clouds at 6k to 9k feet across flo and or lbt this morning.

Winds initially will run from 360 to 060 degrees at 4 to 7 kt.

Resultant wind boundary, aka the sea breeze, will affect the
coastal terminals commencing at midday with winds veering to 090
to 130 degrees at 9 to 12 kt. For tonight, the terminals will
start off withVFR with the possibility of MVFR ifr fog
conditions developing by midnight and continuing thru sunrise.

Guidance indicates lifr possibilities around sunrise. Will just
mention it's possibility here in the afd at this time.

Extended outlook... MostlyVFR through this period. However,
flight restrictions are possible in late night early morning
fog stratus each day. And brief flight restrictions are possible
within showers thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday, especially
during the afternoon evening hours.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Friday... Quiet marine conditions through tonight.

Expect light onshore flow as high pressure extending down from
the north migrates southward over the carolina coast. Winds will
shift from a more NE direction to e-se by tonight, becoming more
variable as they lighten up tonight. Seas near 3 to 4 ft
overnight will diminish through the day to 3 ft or less by
tonight. Should see a little spike and some gusts in winds in
afternoon sea breeze near shore.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 345 am Friday... Weak sfc high pressure centered nearly
overhead at the start of this period, will keep winds relatively
light, ie. 10 kt or less. Sfc cool front dropping southward will
stall north of the area waters before washing out by the end of this
period. 1037mb sfc high pressure centered over SE canada will expand
southward down the east coast of the u.S. By the end of this period.

This will result with continued onshore winds but with speeds
increasing-some by the end of this period due to the sfc pg
tightening. Significant seas will run 2 ft or less at the start of
this period. As the onshore winds become better established along
with increasing fetch, sig. Seas will be in a building phase. By the
end of this period, seas will be a solid 3 ft with a few 4 footers.

Dominant periods will run 8 to 10 second periods. Swell direction at
the start will be from the NE and by the end of this period, more
easterly. Showers and a few storms may affect the local waters by
the end of this period, due to an approaching easterly wave.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 320 pm Thursday... High pressure will remain over the
waters through Monday with a cold front stalling to the north of
the waters Monday. Winds will be northeast to east through the
period around 10 to 15 knots. Seas will run between 2 to 4 feet.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 am Friday... High tides for the next several days
could see renewed flooding downtown as the main flood wave on
the CAPE fear river reaches town, combined with astronomical
high tides. River levels should reach moderate and possibly
even major flooding as we approach the full moon over the next
several high tides.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rgz
near term... mbb rgz
short term... Dch
long term... Rh
aviation... Dch
tides coastal flooding... Rgz

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 7 mi54 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 82°F1025.3 hPa
SSBN7 7 mi122 min 1 ft
41108 23 mi32 min 81°F2 ft
WLON7 32 mi32 min 84°F 78°F1023.2 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi98 min 76°F 82°F1024 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 39 mi32 min 80°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi54 min N 12 G 16 76°F 81°F
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi22 min NE 16 G 18 78°F 82°F1022.7 hPa70°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi2.9 hrsNE 510.00 miFair72°F65°F80%1023 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi2.1 hrsENE 610.00 miA Few Clouds79°F68°F69%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----------------------------------------------NE5
1 day agoN5NW7W7W5SW4W5N4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm------------
2 days ago--------SW11

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.