Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Isle Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:30PM Friday June 22, 2018 6:55 AM EDT (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:28PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 612 Am Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Today..SW winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 612 Am Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. The bermuda high will linger off the coast through the week. A cold front will move into the area from the north late Thursday and stall. The front will lift north as a warm front Friday with bermuda high pressure returning for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Isle Beach, NC
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location: 33.91, -78.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221017
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
617 am edt Fri jun 22 2018

Synopsis
Hot and humid conditions with scattered thunderstorms
will continue today through the weekend. A cold front
accompanied with thunderstorms will move across the area
Monday night. In it's wake, high pressure will ridge down
from the north and supply a drier air air mass with
temperatures dropping back to near normal Tuesday thru
Thursday of next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 615 am Friday... Update to pops. Weak forcing from aloft
and a weak sfc trof oriented from wnw to ese across the ilm nc
cwa will both combine to produce widely scattered showers early
this morning thru mid daytime morning. Whether that transitions
to thunderstorm activity at this point looks minimal based on
the previous fcst.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

as of 330 am Friday... The mid level ridge that has been in
place to our west for so long bringing the heat has finally
been quashed by a trough dropping into the ms oh valley region.

The center of this trough stays far enough to our west to
preclude any height falls and thus deep layer lift. Despite the
slight mid level veer from west to southwest there is not any
substantial moistening of forecast soundings. In fact, quite the
contrary pw values drop from 2.3" to 1.9". Factoring in a
little persistence (no measurable rainfall yesterday) will
minimize pops today. Will carry isolated coverage area wide as
seabreeze and piedmont trough will both try to make
contributions. Friday night a few disturbances will streak by to
our west in the southwesterly flow. Most of the area will be
too stable for this to matter, but a few showers or shallow
thunderstorms could develop over the marine environment.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 330 am Friday... The upper closed low over the southern
great lakes will be in the process of opening up into a S W trof
as it gets absorbed in the westerlies aloft. The mid-level trof
axis extending from the transitioning upper low will push from
west to east across the fa during sat. This forcing will be
enough for convection to occur. With wsw flow aloft, drier air
aloft will push across the fa. Although a weak subsidence
inversion aloft should be able to overcome it given the forcing
from the S W trof. Overall, could see 30 to possibly 40 pops
given how well defined the sea breeze becomes and if any inland
progression given westerly flow aloft.

Sunday will feature the suppressed upper ridge will finally get
to expand slightly northward from the gulf of mexico with
continued westerly flow aloft. The sfc trof across the western
carolinas Sat will progress to the central carolinas Sunday thru
sun night. A weak S W trof or vort is progged to move from west
to east across central nc. How much of this forcing bleeds
southward will make a difference in the pop forecast across the
ilm cwa.

Model MOS temp consensus indicates widespread maxes in the 90s
each day, except slightly hier during Sunday. Sfc dewpoints will
also run in the low to mid 70s inland to mid to upper 70s
closer to the coast both days. How much of those upper 70s push
inland will depend on the inland progression, or lack of, of the
sea breeze. Given slightly hotter temps Sun over sat, have
indicated that heat advisory conditions will be met Sun and
conveyed this possibility in the hwo.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Ridge will be suppressed to our S sun
and Mon as an upper trough pivots across the northeast states
and then offshore tue. Shortwave energy embedded in the W to
wnw flow S of 330 am Friday... Will skirt across the carolinas
with one spoke moving across and offshore Sun night into mon
morning and another late Mon and Mon eve. This should help drive
a surface cold front south and into the area Mon night into
tue. High pressure will then try to build S Tue and Wed which
should push the front further S where it will stall out Wed and
thu.

This scenario should allow for the greatest coverage of showers
and thunderstorms early in the week, especially Mon and mon
night when precipitable water values will peak near or in
excess of 2 inches. Convection should be scattered sun,
initiating along the seabreeze and piedmont trough. A greater
number of thunderstorms may arrive Sun night coincident with
upper level support which should be able to sustain upstream
thunderstorms as they move into our portion of the carolinas.

The arrival of progressively drier air from the N Tue and wed
should result in a decrease in convective coverage and silent
pops may be warranted for at least portions of the area Wed and
thu.

850 mb temps will reach 20-21c Sun and so expect the heat
and humidity to still be high with high temps reaching the mid
and upper 90s. This will bring the heat index to near 105 to
109 which would require a heat advisory. We should be at least
a degree or two cooler Mon with more clouds and developing
convection and then seasonable temps Tue through Thu as
dewpoints lower to the mid and upper 60s which will keep heat
index values below 100 degrees. Lows Sun night will still be
muggy, mid and upper 70s, but lower 70s should be more common
for the remainder of the week.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
As of 06z...VFR condition expected through the period for the
most part. Some debris cloudiness strewn about the carolinas
could lead to short-lived ceilings. Strong daytime heating will
allow for cumulus clouds to develop this afternoon at 5kft and
the moisture may be sufficient to form a ceiling as well.

Similar to yesterday any shower or thunderstorm will be far too
brief to warrant any mention in tafs.

Extended outlook...VFR with possible short duration MVFR fog
or ifr CIGS inland terminals early each morning. Scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely each day with short
duration restrictions possible. A cold front will bring a
better chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 330 am Friday... Mid level ridge to our west finally
replaced by troughiness and cyclonic curvature through the
period. This will slightly energize the southwesterly flow
that has been in place due to better alignment of wind in
the vertical. With such coast- parallel flow however any
building of seas will largely be confined to areas
outside of the 20nm forecast zones.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 330 am Friday... Looking at an overall forecast of SW 10 to
15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Significant seas will run
2 to 3 ft occasionally 2 to 4 ft. However, latest consensus
progs indicate a tightening of the sfc pg Sat afternoon thru the
pre-dawn Sunday hours. It's during the mentioned time-line that
scec conditions will occur with SW winds increasing to 15 to 20
kt with few gusts up to 25 kt. And significant seas will
quickly follow suit and peak in the 3 to 5 foot range. No real
ground swell to talk about. Will basically contend with 4 to 6
second period wind waves thruout this period.

Long term Monday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Ssw to SW winds Sun will be mainly sw
mon and then shift to the N and NE in the wake of a cold front
late Mon night and then NE to ene Tue as high pressure begins to
assert a southward push across the waters. The strongest winds
will be in the range of 15 to 20 kt later Sun afternoon and eve,
the result of a robust seabreeze circulation, and into sun
night due to some nocturnal jetting. A tightening gradient ahead
of a cold front approaching from the N may keep wind speeds
close to this range into mon. Wind speeds will diminish to 10 kt
late Mon night. A modest push of drier and cooler air should
bring wind speeds up to around 15 kt tue. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft
with a tendency to build to 4 to 5 ft during tue.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Dch mbb
short term... Dch
long term... Rjd
aviation... mbb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 7 mi116 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 7 mi48 min W 7.8 G 12 82°F 82°F1009.4 hPa
41108 23 mi26 min 82°F3 ft
WLON7 32 mi44 min 80°F 83°F1009.3 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 33 mi44 min 1013.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi38 min WSW 5.1 G 6 81°F 79°F1009.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 39 mi26 min 79°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi48 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 79°F 80°F1008.8 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi26 min WSW 9.7 G 12 82°F 82°F1010 hPa79°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi76 minW 610.00 miFair82°F78°F90%1009.5 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi63 minWSW 410.00 miFair79°F75°F88%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW7SW7SW7SW6SW6SW8SW8S8SW8SW7SW8SW6SW5SW7SW7W6SW7SW8W7W8W6W6W6
1 day agoCalmW8SW6SW7SW7W8SW9SW8SW7SW8SW6
G14
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2 days agoW7W8W12SW7SW8SW13SW7SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Fri -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:12 AM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:55 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:59 PM EDT     5.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.9344.44.33.72.71.70.80.200.31.22.43.74.754.7431.910.5

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:31 AM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:58 AM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:08 PM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:36 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.22.53.64.34.33.72.71.60.4-0.4-0.7-0.30.723.44.34.74.53.82.71.50.4-0.3-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.