Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:05PM Thursday November 23, 2017 9:34 AM EST (14:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:53AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 333 Am Est Thu Nov 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft this afternoon. A slight chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
AMZ200 333 Am Est Thu Nov 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in from the north overnight and linger through today. A series of weak low pressure systems will move up the coast today through Saturday. A dry cold front will move across the region Saturday night followed by canadian high pressure through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 230907
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
407 am est Thu nov 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the carolinas through today as low
pressure begins to move slowly up from the gulf of mexico spreading
clouds and some rain over the southeast. The low may track close
enough to the carolina coast to produce some intermittent rain
mainly along the immediate coast late today into Friday before
departing on Saturday. A dry cold front will move through Saturday
night followed by canadian high pressure through the middle of
next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Thursday... High clouds were streaming northward in
sw flow on the front end of mid to upper trough. This trough
will dig southward today into the gulf before pushing eastward
by tonight. Shortwave energy rotating around the main trough
will produce waves of low pressure which will track northward up
from the eastern gulf to just off the southeast coast through
tonight. The best lift associated with this low pressure will
remain mainly off the coast, but a low end chc of pcp will exist
into sc and mainly along the coast into nc later today into
tonight. For now will keep any measurable pcp out of the
forecast.

A tight gradient will exist between cooler and drier high
pressure to the west and low pressure to the east. Pcp water
values will remain under a half inch from i-95 and west and up
to 1.6 inches off the coast. Dewpoint temps were down below 30
inland and up closer to 40 along the immediate coast this
morning and will remain low through the period. Temps will only
reach into the 50s today in cool northerly flow.

The mid to upper trough will nudge the greatest moisture east
through tonight. This will clear out most of the clouds over
western portion of forecast area while clouds will remain along
the coast through tonight. This will produce another large
spread in overnight lows tonight with mid 30s inland to mid 40s
along the coast.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Finally, models are all trending
together in keeping the main area of pcpn just off the ilm cwa
coasts early Fri before, finally progressing this pcpn well
offshore during daytime Friday. The drying trend amongst the
models are likely mainly due to a northern stream mid-level S w
trof that dives SE to the gulf coast states during thu, then
progressing eastward Thu night thru Friday. This upper S W trof
remains positively tilted and much less amplified than what
prior models forecast several days ago up until yesterday. With
a flattened mid-level S W trof, the easterly component in the
wind fields aloft will push the sfc low and ultimately the
baroclinic zone it's feeding off of, to well offshore from the
carolina coasts by late Friday. As mentioned in prior fcsts, a
decent moisture and pop gradient will exist late Thu thru Friday
before finally shifting well offshore by late Friday. With that
said, have kept pops in the low chance for light rain across
the coastal counties early fri. The tight moisture gradient will
also result in sky conditions going from cloudy to clear as the
back edge of this cloud field pushes east. Weak sfc high will
prevail late Fri thru daytime Saturday. Moisture profiles across
various ilm CWA locations indicate a dry mid and upper levels
to exist Fri night thru Sat resulting in mainly clear Fri night
and mostly sunny for sat. For late Sat thru Sat night, a
vigorous sfc cold front will drop southeast and across the fa
sat evening and off the carolina coasts and offshore after
midnight sun. A potent and southeast moving mid-level S W trof
will help amplify the longwave upper trof across the eastern
u.S. As well as accelerating the sfc cold front across the fa.

Moisture will remain starved for this cold front, with enough
for cloudiness but not deep enough for any pcpn. This a result
of the downslope wind field within the atm column that will tend
to scour out moisture. With that said, did not include pops and
have kept a partly to variably cloudy sky conditions Sat night.

The temp fcst during this 2 day period will be unremarkable,
meaning expect MAX min temps near their respective climo norms.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Primary weather caption for this time
frame remains 'seasonably cool, and dry' as a series of upper
troughs progressively traverse the coast, the strongest brings
cold air advection Sunday. The coolest portion of this time
period looks to be daybreak Monday, when high pressure becomes
centered over the inland carolinas under clear skies at first
light. The breeziest part of the forecast will be Sunday as
high pressure builds in from the west. Late in the extended
period for days 6 7, a return and moisture flow slated, as a
moderately strong upper trough digs into the central ms valley,
hence, a warm air advection trend appears on tap for next
tue wed, with a slight chance of rain as a warm front arrives
from the south in the return flow.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... High pressure will build in from the west as clouds and
rain spread up along the southeast coast from low pressure moving up
from the gulf. The tightened gradient between these two systems
along with clouds streaming northward will prevent prevent fog in
the forecast tonight. Winds will remain 5 to 10 kts overnight into
thurs as they veer from the N to ne.

Overall expect mainlyVFR conditions, but the model soundings
were hinting at some MVFR ceilings around 2k ft to affect the
coastal tafs. Otherwise expect some strato CU around 4k ft at
times today and good deck of mid to high clouds between 15k to
20k ft. Warmer and moister air streaming up from the south over
the relatively cooler denser air in place will produce some rain
to the south and east but some of this pcp may brush the
coastal tafs but not high enough confidence to include in 06z tafs.

Extended outlook... Low confidence for MVFR to ifr conditions
near the coast late Thursday through Saturday morning in low
clouds and rain.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Northerly surge through this morning
will produce marginal SCA conditions. N-ne winds up to 20 kts
with higher gusts will produce seas up over 6 ft with wna model
showing highest within the first few hours after daybreak today.

The high will shift east with winds veering to northeast
through today. Northeast winds around 20 kt continue into this
morning before surge eases and the gradient relaxes. Winds will
diminish to 15 kt by midday, but should see winds increase
slightly tonight as low pressure moves up from the south and
gradient tightens again. Seas will remain 4 to 6 ft through this
morning before starting to decrease as wind speeds drop off.

Seas should remain 3 to 5 ft through tonight but may be on the
high end overnight into early fri.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 am Thursday... SCA will likely be ongoing at the start of
this period due to a tightened sfc pg as the sfc low just offshore
pulls away from the carolina coasts. Weak sfc high and it's
elongated center, will push across the eastern carolinas and off the
coast Fri night thru midday Saturday. NE 15 to 20 g25 kt winds early
fri will back to the north thru northwest Fri aftn thru early sat
with wind speeds subsiding to 10 to 15 kt as the sfc pg relaxes. The
sfc pg will re-tighten-some Sat aftn and evening due to the approach
and passage of the next cold front. This cfp not as dramatic as
previous ones but nevertheless westerly winds to increase to around
15 kt ahead of the front becoming northerly 10 to 20 kt with few
gusts up to 25 kt. Significant seas will have peaked at the start of
this period followed by a general subsiding trend Fri aftn thru
midday Sat before bouncing back into a slight uptrend Sat aftn and
night. With wind directions generally offshore, there will be a
limited fetch for which seas to build upon during Sat aftn and
night. At best, a short term scec remains possible for late Sat aftn
and night.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure will build into the area
waters behind cold front through the day Sunday. The breeziest
day and highest seas will be Sunday as north winds up to 20 kt
prevail, with a few higher gusts. Wave guidance showing 4-5 feet
offshore sun, thus a precautionary headline may be needed. As
the high pressure center nears, N winds will veer to NE and
weaken on Monday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for amz250-
252-254-256.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Dch
long term... Mjc
aviation... Rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi34 min 62°F5 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 19 mi109 min NE 4.1 44°F 1019 hPa38°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi35 min 63°F5 ft
WLON7 22 mi46 min 46°F 59°F1020 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi86 min NE 14 G 19 50°F 63°F1019.2 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi46 min N 12 G 14 45°F 62°F1020.4 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi86 min NE 9.7 G 14 46°F 61°F1019.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi86 min NE 18 G 25 55°F 70°F1019 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi34 min NE 19 G 23 62°F 72°F1017.9 hPa (+0.6)56°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi49 minNNE 810.00 miFair45°F37°F76%1020 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE7NE7NE6NE6NE6NE4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N3W3W7NW6
2 days agoN8
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N7N4N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N4NE3N3NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Southport
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Thu -- 04:28 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:51 AM EST     4.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:18 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:27 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:21 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.12.31.50.90.60.61.12.13.13.94.44.54.23.42.31.50.90.50.61.222.83.33.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:00 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:21 AM EST     4.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:29 PM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.22.31.50.90.70.91.72.83.74.44.74.64.23.32.41.50.90.81.22.133.643.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.