Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:48PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:46 AM EDT (04:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:30AMMoonset 8:49PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1129 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu night..W winds 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1129 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A strong cold front will approach the waters tonight into Thursday then move offshore Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will follow Friday and Saturday. A coastal low may pass offshore of the carolina coast early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 240112
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
912 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
An approaching cold front will bring thunderstorms tonight through
Thursday, some of which may be strong. Canadian high pressure
will bring an early fall feel Friday and through the weekend. We
will be watching the tropics for possible development of low
pressure off the southeast coast early next week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 915 pm Wednesday... The big convective line is weakening
slightly as it approaches the coast of SE north carolina.

Ingesting the very humid but slightly cooler (and therefore
initially capped) boundary layer is likely responsible for the
storms' recent behavior. Although weaker, they should continue
to sag southeastward and to the beaches in the next hour. Heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are all expected.

Redevelopment of storms off to the west from marion and
johnsonville, sc all the way back through timmonsville and
camden is a bit healthier than I would have thought two hours
ago. Surface parcels are heavily capped back in this region, but
recent SPC mesoanalysis graphics indicate central and eastern
south carolina is coming under the influence of a 250 mb jet
streak located over the mid-atlantic region. Upper level
divergence located within the right-entrance region of this jet
is probably helping lift elevated parcels starting in the
5000-1000 foot agl range. There's no reason to expect this
activity to dissipate given its disconnect from the boundary
layer and the likely persistence of the upper level pattern.

Likely (60-70 percent) pops have been expanded across a good
portion of eastern south carolina through early Thursday
morning.

Discussion from 730 pm follows...

a synoptic cold front across central north carolina extends
from greenville, nc to fayetteville to near charlotte and is
dropping southward. A large cluster of thunderstorms has
developed just ahead of the boundary, taking advantage of
uncapped surface-based CAPE of 2500 j kg. Precipitable water
values near 2.0 inches normally doesn't coexist with large dcape
values, but in this case just large enough temp-dewpoint
spreads exist above the boundary layer to support dcape as large
as 1300 j kg -- leading to the gusty winds we have seen in
today's storms. A gust to 55 mph was measured at the ASOS in
lumberton, nc, and trees were blown down in dillon, sc.

Evolution of this event through the evening is shown very well
on the last few hrrr runs as well as the 18z nam. A massed-line
of storms should work down into wilmington and the CAPE fear
region by late evening, joined by scattered showers and storms
across the myrtle beach area. One weak upper level vort MAX is
supporting our current storms, but a second vort digging across
eastern tennessee and western north carolina later tonight may
begin to back the mean flow just enough late tonight to cause
activity to cease its eastward progress and hang up across the
coastal waters and perhaps the coastal counties as well. On this
latest update pops were increased to 70-100 percent for SE north
carolina, with QPF raised to 1+ inches in spots.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Some cooler and drier air will be filtering
in Thursday night from the northwest behind slow moving cold frontal
boundary. A little rain may linger along the coast due to the later
arrival of the drying. By Friday the front will stall just far
enough south for a rain-free day as a sprawling, cool season-like
1025mb high is centered over the great lakes. This high will
show little to no movement Friday night. The movement of the
front, if any will thus be determined by any potential low
pressure development off of jax. This could also lead to a
coastal increase in moisture.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... A stationary front will be located
well offshore and S of the area Sat with an area of low pressure
positioned on the front, but well offshore. High pressure will
be ridging across the carolinas from new england. The pressure
gradient between these two features will keep a fairly brisk ne
wind in place across the forecast area through the weekend.

This will ensure the cool air is continually reinforced and
highs during the weekend should only be in the lower to mid 80s
and this will be coupled with comfortable humidity levels. Model
profiles continue to be quite dry with precipitable water
values below climatological normals and thus will not include
any mention of a shower or thunderstorm during the weekend. This
pattern looks to hold through sun. The flow becomes more
onshore and the column begins to moisten Mon and tue. There may
also be some mid- level shortwave energy impinging on the area
from the sw. Will paint more in the way of cloudiness as a wedge
likely sets up and introduce the potential for some showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm. The probabilities for precipitation
will be highest at the coast.

The heat is not to be found, even early to the middle of next
week with highs only in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will be in
the mid 60s to near 70 through the period.

As a caveat, we will be watching the tropics early next week to
see if a weak disturbance is able to develop somewhere off the
se coast. Confidence in any development is very low as is its
eventual track.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 00z... A large cluster of thunderstorms across the coastal
plain will move east-southeast toward the coast this evening.

Storms should reach the ilm and cre airports between 02-03z, and
perhaps myr around 04z. Gusty winds and visibility falling to
MVFR (or even briefly ifr) in heavy rainfall are expected.

Current thunderstorms should move away from the flo and lbt
airports, but we are watching for showers and weaker embedded
thunderstorms to redevelop and affect the interior coastal plain
through 04z.

All this convection is the result of a cold front plowing
southeastward into a hot and unstable airmass across the eastern
carolinas. The front should reach the south carolina border
early Thursday morning between 09-13z, with winds shifting more
northwesterly at the lbt, ilm, and possibly flo airports. This
could also allow ifr stratus to develop just before daybreak.

Thursday afternoon's seabreeze should turn winds back onshore,
with converging low- level winds leading to another round of
showers and t-storms Thursday afternoon, particularly near the
coast.

Extended outlook... Showers and t-storms Thursday associated
with a cold front could produce localized ifr conditions.

Most showers and storms will push offshore Thursday night
into Friday. MVFR ceilings could linger, especially near
the coast Friday.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 915 pm Wednesday... Storms are moving rapidly toward the
beaches of SE north carolina. They are weakening but are still
capable of producing some hefty wind gusts as they move
offshore. Please reference the latest marine weather statement
for details. Additional storms are developing across central and
eastern south carolina and will likely affect the areas south of
cape fear closer to midnight and into the early hours of
Thursday morning. No changes have been made to synoptic forecast
reasoning through the night. Discussion from 730 pm follows...

a cold front currently across central north carolina is moving
southeastward and should reach CAPE fear by daybreak Thursday.

Steady southwesterly winds around 15 knots ahead of the front
should become disturbed by late evening as a large line of
thunderstorms across the interior coastal plain moves out across
the waters. Variable wind gusts in and near these storms should
settle down to a weaker, more westerly average wind after
midnight. Mariners planning to be out on the waters, especially
north of myrtle beach, should closely watch these storms now
through midnight.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Cold front comes through early Thursday
night turning winds to the NE by midnight. The NE to E winds will
last for the remainder of the period as a large area of high
pressure sits centered over the great lakes and the front remains
stalled to our south. Low pressure developing on the boundary off ne
fl coast gradually should pinch the gradient and allow for a slow
building of wind and seas.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Persistent and brisk NE winds will
likely require a small craft advisory for much of the period.

The tightening pressure gradient will be the result of high
pressure ridging down into the carolinas from the N and an
offshore front and area of low pressure. NE winds will be
around 25 kt for much of the period. Seas will be 5 to 7 ft and
perhaps up to 8 ft by mon.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rjd
near term... Tra
short term... mbb
long term... Rjd
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi46 min 85°F4 ft
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi47 min 83°F3 ft
WLON7 22 mi46 min 73°F 85°F1012.9 hPa (+2.1)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi38 min NNW 9.7 G 16 75°F 84°F1012.9 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi46 min NNW 7 G 8 73°F 84°F1012.4 hPa (+2.6)
SSBN7 25 mi106 min 3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi38 min NNE 9.7 G 14 74°F 85°F1011.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi38 min NW 16 G 21 78°F 84°F1011.9 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi36 min SW 16 G 18 84°F 84°F1011.5 hPa78°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
SW7
SW10
SW8
SW4
SW6
SW10
G14
W9
G12
SW10
SW8
SW9
SW9
S14
S15
S19
S19
S20
S21
S18
S18
SW19
SW11
NW11
G15
N4
N7
1 day
ago
W2
NE3
NW2
N2
N4
N2
N4
NE4
S10
SE9
SE8
SE7
SE9
SE11
S15
S19
S18
S19
SW18
SW13
SW10
SW10
SW10
G13
SW9
2 days
ago
N4
N2
NW3
N4
NE7
E11
G14
E10
G13
NE9
NE9
NE9
E8
G11
E6
SE7
SE7
SE7
S9
S8
S6
S6
W2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi51 minNNW 410.00 miLight Rain73°F71°F95%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last 24hrSW10
G16
SW9
G14
W8SW9W11
G17
W10W6W7SW7SW6SW8SW10
G15
SW8SW8
G16
SW10
G14
SW8
G14
S10
G15
SW7
G14
SW7
G15
SW8
G15
SW7N10N3N3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmSW4SW7S4S7S5SW7SW6S9SW7SW7SW6SW6SW7SW6
2 days agoCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE3SE3E4E3E6SE4SE5S4S4CalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Southport
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:21 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:51 PM EDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.51.40.4-0.2-0.10.71.8344.64.63.92.81.70.80.1-00.51.62.83.84.54.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Cape Fear
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:04 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:23 AM EDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:22 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:36 PM EDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.12.81.40.4-0.10.31.22.53.64.5554.33.21.90.80.10.21.12.33.54.455.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (0,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.