Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:09PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 6:59 PM EST (23:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:32PMMoonset 11:12PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 519 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..NE winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming E 20 to 30 kt late. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain, with isolated tstms after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 519 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Treacherous marine conditions will continue through Thursday night as low pressure moves up the coast overnight into Thursday and then exits to the northeast by Friday. High pressure will build over the waters starting Friday, continuing through the weekend and into the start of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 142329
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
629 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
A chilly rain can be expected overnight into Thursday, as gulf
moisture tracks over cool high pressure building in. A coastal
low skirting CAPE fear Thursday morning may bring a few strong
thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain. Dry high pressure in
wake of this system, will offer-up clear skies and plentiful
sunshine Friday through the weekend, with seasonably cool
temperatures. A cold front will reinforce cool conditions early
next week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 6 pm Wednesday... Reductions will be needed for pop early,
as radar returns remain mostly absent from the coast and the
coastal interior. An uptick trend in rain chance is still the
expectation, however based on radar, we will trim pop values
early into mid evening, ramping up overnight as isentropic omega
rises and cold air advection allows for steeper and stronger over-
running. The coastal low itself a Thursday feature, still carries
a slightly elevated TSTM risk in the daylight morning of
Thursday. No other notable changes were made for the early
evening updates.

As of 300 pm Wednesday... Surface wave developing along front
stalled across central fl will slowly move northeast this
evening and overnight. The wave will develop into a surface low
as it moves north, increasing isentropic lift across the local
area. Strong low level jetting develops overnight, up to 60 kt
around 3k ft at its peak. Strong southeast flow just above the
surface and strong southwest flow aloft will spread an abundance
of tropical moisture over the region. Forecast soundings have
precipitable water peaking between 1.8 to 2 inches, values which
exceed the MAX all time based on sounding climatology. Strong
lift coupled with abundant moisture will produce widespread
heavy rain overnight with convective elements developing closer
to coast as the low approaches. Front may move onshore just
ahead of the low Thu morning. Do not think the boundary would
push very far inland, but this would allow for a period of time
where strong to severe storms will be possible along the
immediate coast, mainly from 10-15z. Temperatures will gradually
increase overnight, with lows likely to occur before midnight.

Along the coast temps could rise 10 degrees or more overnight if
the front moves onshore.

Widespread heavy rain decreases quickly following the passage
of the surface low, although low level moisture will linger
across the region through the end of the period. Low cloud is
likely to linger through the afternoon despite much drier air
aloft spreading over the area. Light rain and drizzle will
remain a possibility into the afternoon, especially along the
coast. Slow moving 5h low crosses the tn ky valleys tomorrow as
large dry slot spreads over the southeast. Any dynamics
associated with the mid-level low will remain north of the area
and the low lifts out before strong advection can get going.

High pressure builds in from the west late Thu with deep
westerly flow in place as the period ends. Highs will range from
near to slightly above climo along the coast (where the front
moves onshore) to well below climo inland where the wedge holds
strong. Most areas will experience highs before noon.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... No pcpn expected! A dry fcst! Temps
this period running about 1 to possibly 2 cats below normal. The
mid-level closed low and associated dynamics will be opening
and accelerating thru the NE states during Thu night. A sfc trof
or secondary sfc cold front associated with it will sweep
across the fa overnight Thu resulting in a slight veer of the
sfc wind field from W to wnw-nw. First half of Fri will be
blustery with the hier wind gusts in the morning due to leftover
caa and a tightened sfc pg. By Fri night and continuing into sat,
the center of sfc high pressure will be in the neighborhood.

Expect tranquil wx with skies mostly clear and winds generally 0
to 3 mph Fri night and 5 to 9 mph during sat.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Thru Monday, the longwave pattern
aloft paints a low amplitude trof covering nearly the entire
u.S. With the trof axis west of the ilm cwa. The flow aloft will
generally be westerly with equal inputs from the flow out of
canada, ie. Northern jet, and the subtropical jet or the
southern jet. As a result, no major storm systems thru Mon with
temps each day right at normal for this time of the year.

For Tue into Wed period, difficult to say if the longwave
pattern is in the midst of changing. Or, is it just potent mid
level impulses that dive out of canada to amplify the upper trof
resulting in a possible quick low pressure system affecting the
east coast in he mid to mainly late week period of next week.

This will be our 1st shot of pcpn in almost a week if any of
these S W mid-level trofs materialize.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 23z... Dry low-levels will keep terminals inVFR tonight
before the main swath of precip begins to move in. Expect a ovc
ceiling around 10k ft and dropping steadily as low-level moisture
advection ramps up with the approaching low. Northeasterly winds will
stay strong between 10-15 knots with a few gusts from time to time.

Precip moves in around 05z-07z from SW to NE across the area and
cigs will drop quickly becoming MVFR 1-2k ft agl. While initially
light, expect strong isentropic lift to overrun the cooler, stable
air near the surface; this will increase precip intensity, lowering
vis and CIGS to ifr around 08z-12z. The onset of ifr is likely to be
dependent on precip intensity and, as such, there is limited
confidence at this time, but guidance seems to agree at around 09z-
11z. Not much recovery is expected and if there is any, it will
occur near the end of the TAF period and more likely inland where
nam shows good northerly cold dry air advection. However, with
enough trapped low-level moisture, should keep MVFR stratus around
through the TAF period. Ifr at the coast where low-levels stay moist
and stable through at least 00z.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr lifting overnight thurs for possible
stratus and fog Fri morning. After this, drier,VFR conditions
Friday into the weekend. Dry cold frontal passage expected late
Monday.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 6 pm Thursday... Extended the gale until 6 am, to allow 35
kt gusts to fully expire overnight around the CAPE fear waters.

As of 300 pm Wednesday... Northeast flow will strengthen a little
more this evening as low pressure consolidates over fl before
moving northeast. Gale warning remains in effect with sustained
speeds likely ending up short of 34 kt, but with gusts in excess
of 34 kt, which are the main reason for the headline. Low
pressure moves into the area early Thu with winds decreasing and
veering to east and then southeast then finally southwest by
thu afternoon. Seas approaching double digits in some areas
overnight will subside in response to southwest winds during
thu. However, an SCA will likely be needed for the remainder of
thu morning and at least a part of Thu afternoon.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... SCA conditions likely after the gale
for Thu night and continuing into 1st half of fri. This a
result of a tightened sfc pg and ongoing CAA and drier air
advecting across the local waters. The sfc pg will relax during
fri aftn and night. The CAA will have become neutral Fri aftn
and night. As a result, will see diminishing winds to well below
sca thresholds by dusk fri. Did not go as low as guidance but
still will remain below any SCA or scec thresholds. Significant
seas will peak Thu night during the pre-dawn Fri hrs. But with a
decreased fetch under an offshore wind trajectory during this
period, overall sig. Seas will be in a subsiding trend. It will
be slow initially due to the ese swell at 9 second periods but
eventually the shorter period wind driven waves will dominate.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... With a rather relaxed sfc pg thruout
the period, winds will stay below 15 kt and quite possibly aob
10 kt for a portion of the time. This in turn will result in
short period wind driven waves that should not be a problem to
boaters. However, the 9+ second period ese ground swell will
likely become the dominate input to the significant seas
formula. Wavewatch3 indicates a 2 to 3 ft possibly up to 4 feet
ese ground swell at the advertised 9+ second periods.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am est Thursday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Iii mjc
short term... Dch
long term... Dch
aviation... 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi52 min NE 19 G 27 53°F 65°F1025.7 hPa
41108 23 mi60 min 67°F6 ft
WLON7 31 mi60 min 51°F 61°F1027.1 hPa (-0.0)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi60 min NNE 22 G 27 51°F 65°F1027.3 hPa (+0.3)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi52 min ENE 21 G 27 55°F 67°F1026.8 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi50 min NE 31 G 39 63°F 74°F1024.1 hPa57°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi80 minNE 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast52°F39°F63%1026.4 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi67 minNE 1110.00 miOvercast51°F42°F71%1025.6 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Wed -- 12:18 AM EST     4.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:53 PM EST     4.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:26 PM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:12 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.13.62.92.21.51.11.11.52.43.44.14.64.74.53.93.12.21.51.11.11.72.63.3

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
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Wed -- 05:56 AM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:24 PM EST     4.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:46 PM EST     1.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:12 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.73.12.41.71.211.322.93.64.24.44.443.32.51.71.21.11.42.12.93.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.