Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:01PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:42 PM EST (21:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 7:46AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 323 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..Variable winds around 10 kt becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft...subsiding to 3 to 6 ft. Rain likely, mainly this evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 323 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A coastal front just offshore will track toward the coast, pushing onshore tonight and further inland before dissipating during Thu. A cold front dropping southward late Thu will stall across or just south of the area waters Fri and Sat. Sun will see this front return north as a warm front, pushing across the area early in the day. The next cold front will arrive from the west Sun night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201732
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1232 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A front will lift into coastal communities today while inland
areas remain on the cool side of the boundary. Warmer air will
move on on Thursday and again be most pronounced along the
coast. Seasonable weather Friday will give way to another warmup
over the weekend. A cold front is due later Sunday.

Near term through Thursday
As of 1000 am Wednesday... Updates to the ongoing minor coastal
flooding across the nc and sc immediate coast and for the lower
cape fear river. Otherwise, just tweaking applied to the
weather elements.

As of 300 am Wednesday... A particularly difficult forecast is
shaping up for today as models are struggling to initialize the
position of the front offshore and struggling to depict the very
cold, dry low-level air across the eastern carolinas. A general rule
of thumb in these situations is that the cold wedge will last longer
than you'd think possible and that NAM typically performs much
better than the gfs. I can't find a compelling reason to think
otherwise, and this forecast is very close to the 00z NAM today
through tonight.

A developing coastal front extending from 40 miles east of
jacksonville fl out along the western edge of the gulf stream east
of CAPE fear should move westward toward the coast today. Modest 300-
305k isentropic lift over the frontal inversion across the eastern
carolinas should result in solid clouds and waves of light rain
today. Forecast rain chances range from 70-90 percent with the most
substantial QPF expected along the coast. After starting out this
morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s, temperatures should only
slowly crawl through the 40s through early afternoon. As the coastal
front reaches CAPE fear by mid-afternoon temperatures should pop
into the mid 50s in wilmington and southport. The boundary should
also make it into the grand strand area by late afternoon with
temperatures also rising into the 50s. Inland temperatures should
remain stuck in the 40s all day as there's simply no mechanism to
dislodge the cold, dense air at the surface given solid cloud cover
above.

The coastal front should become more diffuse tonight. As the parent
canadian high moves farther off the new england coast we'll lose our
connection to any influx of cold, dry air in the low levels. With no
further evaporational cooling and substantial warm advection ongoing
aloft, temperatures should remain steady or rise slightly overnight.

Thursday's forecast is no easier than today's as the NAM maintains
enough of the wedge airmass inland to produce a large temperature
gradient either side of i-95. While the bust potential is high, it
appears along the coast we'll see enough sunshine to mix up into the
subtropical air aloft with temperatures punching well into the 70s.

West of i-95 it's possible low clouds could linger all day with
temperatures stuck in the 60-65 range. Colleagues at NWS columbia
and raleigh are all on-board with this idea as well.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 300 am Wednesday... Backdoor cold front slides into the region
from the north Thursday night bringing some rain along with it
though models not in good agreement with respect to qpf. Friday into
Friday night the wedge to the north of the boundary pushes more into
the carolinas. Expect cloudy but only slightly cool conditions with
generally light rain or drizzle as very low amplitude ridging aloft
over bahamas leads to little mechanism for ascent locally.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 300 am Wednesday... High pressure wedge remains firmly
entrenched on Saturday while coastal warm front approaches. This
boundary will lift through Saturday night into Sunday allowing for
much milder air to flood into the region. A largely moisture-starved
front then moves through on Sunday, it's parent low all the way up
in the area lakes. Post-frontal high pressure to bring dry and
fairly seasonable weather Monday and Tuesday.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
As of 18z... Lifr conditions across the area have settled in and
should continue through this evening. Overnight, expect fg br
to develop ahead of an approaching warm front from the south.

Coastal terminals should look for sea fog to advect far enough
inland to cause restrictions, especially cre myr. The warm front
pushes northward by tomorrow morning and fog and low cigs
begins to lift as a SW wind around 5-10 knots develops.

Scattered showers will remain, but terminals could see a slight
improvement to ifr MVFR by that time.

Extended outlook... Thursday afternoon, ifr ceilings should lift.

The front lingering in the area could lead to more ifr ceilings
and or vsbys Friday into Saturday as another round of
overrunning rain develops.

Marine
As of 1015 am Wednesday... SCA to continue. No major changes
needed.

As of 300 am Wednesday... Strong northeast winds this morning have
built seas to 8 feet at the frying pan shoals buoy and 12 feet at
the edisto buoy east of charleston. The worst of the marine weather
conditions are ongoing now, and improving winds seas are expected as
a coastal front begins to move westward toward the coast this
afternoon. Northeast winds should bend easterly around noon, then
should become light and southerly as the front moves through. Models
are not in any sort of agreement with the position or timing on the
front, but my best forecast has it reaching the CAPE fear coast
during the mid-afternoon hours, and the grand strand during the late
afternoon. The preferred model today is the 00z nam.

The front should weaken near the coast tonight with light south to
southwest winds continuing into Thursday. Subtropical moisture
creeping up the coast could lead to areas of sea fog developing
tonight into Thursday, and it's even possible some of the fog could
become dense given a favorable wind trajectory and high moisture
content of the incoming airmass.

Thursday night through Friday night... Backdoor cold front moving
south across the area Thursday night turning winds onshore and
dropping dewpoints that should bring and end to the sea fog. Mariner
problems then transition to wind and seas behind the front, both of
which could reach advisory levels. The high pushes in more Friday
night but the local change of winds and seas will be minimal and the
advisory may continue.

Saturday through Sunday... Cool air wedge breaks down Saturday
albeit somewhat gradually. Winds will be veering in direction and
abating in speed. No headlines are expected. Sunday will bring SW to
w flow around a large storm system in the great lakes. Advisory-
worth 6 ft seas could return.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 am Wednesday... Large tidal ranges associated with this
month's full moon will be further enhanced by strong northeast winds
this morning. The current tidal anomaly measured at gauges at
wrightsville beach and myrtle beach ranges from +1.2 to +1.4 feet.

This may begin to subside slightly by the time high tide occurs
around 745 am, but adding this anomaly to the astronomical tide
easily yields minor coastal flooding all along the coast. The most
significant flooding is expected in the myrtle beach murrells inlet
area where water should reach a solid half foot over flood stage.

This could be sufficient to make some flood-prone streets impassible
around high tide.

Minor coastal flooding will also occur during daytime high tides on
the CAPE fear river at downtown wilmington this morning and again
tomorrow.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for amz254-256.

Small craft advisory until noon est Thursday for amz250-252.

Synopsis... mbb
near term... Dch tra
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... 21
marine... Dch
tides coastal flooding... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi35 min N 5.8 G 12 57°F 54°F1020 hPa
41108 23 mi43 min 54°F6 ft
WLON7 31 mi49 min 63°F 53°F1020.1 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi49 min NW 5.1 G 8 59°F 52°F1020.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi35 min ESE 5.8 G 9.7 59°F 54°F1019.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi43 min 54°F7 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi33 min SSW 16 G 19 71°F 68°F1020.3 hPa68°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi63 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F64°F100%1020 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi50 minN 76.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F54°F100%1020.5 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE6E5E4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW8SW8W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Wed -- 02:43 AM EST     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:45 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:47 AM EST     5.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:15 PM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:15 PM EST     5.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.1-0.9-1-0.21.33.14.55.55.85.34.12.71.1-0.2-0.8-0.60.62.13.64.75.35.14.3

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
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Wed -- 02:03 AM EST     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:46 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:18 AM EST     5.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:35 PM EST     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:46 PM EST     5.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.6-1.1-0.70.62.23.74.85.45.34.43.11.60.2-0.7-0.801.32.844.854.53.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.