Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:38PM Thursday October 18, 2018 10:06 PM EDT (02:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:35PMMoonset 12:29AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 953 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 953 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will move across the area through Friday. A strong cold front will sweep across the area late Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Shores, NC
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location: 33.95, -78.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 190205
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1005 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
Cool and dry high pressure over the carolinas will shift off
the coast late Friday with warmer and moister air returning for
Saturday. A strong cold front will move through the area
Saturday night followed by canadian high pressure, bringing
some of the coldest weather so far this season early next week.

Low pressure moving across the southeast should spread clouds
and rain northward into the carolinas Thursday into Friday.

Near term through Friday
As of 1000 pm Thursday... The only issue for the evening
forecast update is an area of stratocumulus clouds in the cape
fear area moving inland off the ocean. Looking at the 00z mhx
sounding this appears to be a razor-thin layer of moisture
banked up beneath the subsidence inversion about 4500 feet aloft.

It doesn't take more than a couple hundred feet of moisture to
spoil a clear night, and this area of cloud cover could hang
around for at least several hours doing just that.

With lows anticipated to fall into the mid to upper 40s away
from the beaches, it's worth investigating when the last time it
was chilly.

Location forecast low last time it was this chilly
wilmington 49 april 30
florence 47 april 30
n. Myrtle beach 52 may 2
lumberton 44 april 30
discussion from 300 pm follows...

high pressure centered south of the great lakes will shift to
the carolina coast by Friday evening. Skies should be fairly
clear until the high shifts eastward and increase of moisture
from the south is realized on Friday. The bufr soundings confirm
the low-level moisture streaming into the area. Therefore we
are expecting the increase in cloudiness.

Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s north to near 50 in the
south for the inland areas and mid 50s along the coast. Highs on
Saturday will rebound from near 70 in the north to the mid 70s over
the coastal sections of northeast south carolina.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 230 pm Thursday... A strong shortwave diving southeast across
the great lakes region Saturday will suppress sub-tropical high well
south of the carolinas. The h5 trough axis will approach the mid-
atlantic and new england coasts late in the period. At the surface,
high pressure slips farther off the va nc coast Friday night,
however return flow is short-lived ahead of the cold front pushing
off the coast Saturday evening. A chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms will exist Saturday with convection exiting from west
to east Saturday evening. Could see a a few showers around Friday
night with a pre-frontal trough in the vicinity. Temperatures are
expected to be well above normal Friday night and Saturday ahead of
the front, then with cold air advection Saturday night's lows will
drop back to around normal.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Dry and cool high pressure will build
down from the north on Sunday, slowly migrating eastward,
maintaining cooler weather through mon. Expect some of the
coolest temps of the season Sun through Mon with MAX temps in
the 60s and overnight lows Sun down near 40. Decent radiational
cooling Sun night with a clear sky and near calm winds should
bring some places down below 40 with possibility of patchy
frost in spots inland. Dewpoint temps down in the mid 30s sun
night will recover into the 50s by early tues with some clouds
over the area, which will help to keep temps warmer for tues
morning. Models are hinting at a weak coastal trough setting up
on tues and mid to upper trough pushing a weak cold front
through. This will aid in some cloud development and low end chc
of pcp mainly along the sc coast tues.

High pressure will build down from the great lakes Wed into
thurs with a reinforced relatively cooler and drier northerly
flow Wed night into thurs. Looks like a a wedge pattern setting
up for late thurs into Fri with clouds and pcp spreading
northward as low pressure moves across the southeast enhancing
the isentropic lift. Ridge building over the east coast with
height rises should help modify temps on thurs. Expect lows in
the 40s inland and in the 50s along the coast through mid week.

Temps will be in the 60s inland to closer to 70 along the coast.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
As of 00z... Clear skies with few high level clouds will
dominate the period, with winds remaining light around 5 to 10 kts
from the northeast, veering to southeasterly towards end of the
period. Overnight, dew points remain in the low to mid
40s and winds maintain 3-7 knots, therefore, fog potential is
essentially zero.

Extended outlook... Cold front moving through our area Saturday
will bring a chance of MVFR ifr conditions with low clouds and
showers. Conditions improve toVFR Sunday through early next week.

Marine
Near term through Friday ...

as of 1000 pm Thursday... Winds and seas continue to diminish
according to latest buoy and pier data. No significant changes
were made to the forecast with this late evening update.

Discussion from 300 pm follows...

currently at the buoys the winds are blowing 15 to 20 knots
from the northeast and the seas have dropped below 6 feet this
afternoon. As the high pressure over the lower great lakes will
shift off the coast by Friday evening the winds will continue to
weekend and shift to the southeast by sunset. Seas of 3 to 5
feet will fall to 2 to 3 feet by Friday evening.

So with this update will cancel the small craft advisory and raise a
small craft exercise caution through the early evening until the seas
drop below 5 feet.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night ...

as of 230 pm Thursday... High pressure will be far off the va nc
coast at the onset as a pre-frontal trough forms along the coast.

The trough will shift farther away from the coastal waters during
Saturday in advance of a stronger cold front. The wind will veer
to a westerly direction behind the trough then shift to the north
with frontal passage Saturday night. Cold air advection across
warm ssts will promote very good mixing and high end small craft
thresholds Saturday night. Seas will average 3 ft or less Friday
night and Saturday, then 6-7 footers away from the coast Saturday
night.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Canadian high pressure builds down
behind the cold front into early next week, with a decent
northerly surge up to 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts. Latest wna
model showing seas reaching SCA thresholds on sun, with seas in
the 3 to 6 ft range. The cold air rushing over the warmer
waters will keep the marine layer well mixed with gusty
northerly winds Sun into mon. Northerly winds will diminish and
veer slightly Mon into tues as models area hinting at a weak
coastal trough developing. Seas will be down to 3 ft or below
mon aftn through tues with a slight uptick possible in a
slightly pinched gradient with coastal trough and then weak cold
front tues night.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... Tra rh
short term... Srp
long term... Rgz
aviation... Vao
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 10 mi59 min NNE 12 G 16 64°F 78°F1026.8 hPa
41108 34 mi37 min 78°F3 ft
WLON7 39 mi37 min 62°F 73°F1028.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi37 min N 11 G 13 61°F 78°F1028.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 48 mi37 min 77°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi59 min E 7.8 G 12 67°F 78°F1028.2 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi74 minNNE 510.00 miFair58°F51°F78%1028.1 hPa
Whiteville, Columbus County Municipal Airport, NC24 mi92 minN 010.00 miFair54°F49°F87%1028.4 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, north end, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
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Thu -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:29 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:37 PM EDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.33.94.34.33.93.32.61.91.41.21.62.33.244.64.94.74.23.42.61.81.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Little River Neck, north end, South Carolina
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Little River Neck
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Thu -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:37 AM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM EDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:14 PM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:47 PM EDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.43.23.84.24.23.93.42.721.51.31.52.23.13.94.54.84.74.33.52.71.91.41.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.