Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:11PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:27 PM EST (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:32AMMoonset 7:03PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 929 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Rest of today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Tue night..NE winds 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt or less after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 929 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will migrate across the waters this afternoon and move offshore on Tuesday. A weak low pressure system will move near the coast Wednesday, followed by a cold front pushing offshore. Another area of low pressure may move up the coast late week into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Shores, NC
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location: 33.95, -78.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201656
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1156 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail through tonight. A weak trough will
develop just off the coast and a cold front will approach from the
northwest Tuesday. The front will pass off the coast early Wednesday
followed by an area of weak high pressure. Low pressure with origins
over the eastern gulf of mexico may bring rain to the area Wednesday
night through thanksgiving day. The low will accelerate northeast
away from the region by Friday with high pressure expected by the
weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1020 am Monday... Dry surface high pressure is in place across
the carolinas this morning. In addition, water vapor imagery shows a
large swath of dry air aloft, resulting a precipitable water less
than 0.2 inches as noted in adjacent 1200 utc raobs. Low-level
thickness scheme with full insolation yields high temperatures in
the upper 50s to around 60. Radiational cooling should be optimum
under clear skies and calm winds this evening; however, moisture is
shown to increase from the gulf coast in the 500-300 mb layer which
could limit radiational cooling late. For now plan to remain cooler
than mav guidance for lows tonight.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 300 am Monday... Tuesday is shaping up to be okay during the
daytime with some clouds increasing with mild moist air overriding
the cool dome of air across the ilm cwa. The dividing line is an
inverted sfc trof that develops and lies across the atlantic waters
parallel to the ilm CWA coast. Models to some degree push this sfc
inverted trof onshore and inland. However, i'm not entirely bought
on the push well inland. I could see the trof moving just onshore
but this is not the normal setup for the aka coastal trof to push
well inland let alone onshore. As a result, will indicate the temp
fcst with regard to just an onshore push. As for pcpn, have also
knocked down pops to a degree with a decent gradient from low chance
well inland to good chance or possibly likely along the immediate
coast and adjacent atl waters. The overall instigator for pcpn
across the fa is mid-level shortwave troughs that push off the
mexican and southern texas coasts respectively and into the gulf
of mexico where it picks up moisture before crossing central
florida during Tuesday. The shortwaves then accelerate
northeastward Tuesday night along the coastal trough and by
Wednesday daybreak they are off CAPE hatteras. This will supply
additional dynamics other than the weak overrunning pcpn already
in place by the time it's affects commence. With stratiform
type rains fcst west of the coastal trough, QPF will be on the
low side with the highest occurring in the vicinity and east of
the coastal trof where isolated heavier showers with possible
thunder to occur. Have lowered temps for Tue from the previous
fcst due to betting on the coastal trof not pushing well inland.

For Wednesday... A cold front will push across first thing in the
morning, helping to drive what's left of clouds and pcpn further
offshore. The front will stall well offshore but extend back inland
across florida. We then do it all over again, with overrunning type
clouds late Wed thru Wed night with stratiform rains breaking out
late in this time period, with the hier pops along the immediate
coast and southernmost portions. Other than weak embedded
southern stream S W trofs, a rather decent northern stream 5h
s W trof dives southeastward from the upper midwest and by early
thu, models indicate it may close off over ga. This may draw
back westward the stalled offshore front but still remaining
offshore. A pop gradient will again occur across the area late
wed night into thu, with lowest well inland and highest along
and east of the ilm CWA coast. Enhancement to the QPF will come
from weak embedded mid-level southern stream S W troughs engaged
with the stalled offshore front. The main QPF enhancement and
higher pops will come from the northern stream S W trof and
possible sfc low development on the stalled front offshore late
in this period. For Wednesday temps, stayed on the lower side of
mos guidance due to clouds and pcpn threat via the gfs, whereas
the much drier european model this time frame has Wed MAX temps
approaching 70 across portions of the fa.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Saturday... Lingering rain is possible early
Wednesday as an upper trough moves out and a cold front moves
out to sea. Another short wave trough could spawn low pressure
development along the old front off the southeast u.S. Coast.

This will bring another chance of rain to the area Wednesday
night into Friday, though the exact details of this scenario are
still in doubt. Dry weather is expected for the remainder of
the long term but light showers are possible with another
frontal passage and vigorous upper trough on Sunday.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals of mid 60s wed
before falling back into the mid to upper 50s for Thu and fri.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Sat and Sun with highs
in lower 60s. Mins temperatures Wednesday night will fall to
the upper 30s to lower 40s with higher numbers SE and along the
immediate coast. Temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 are
expected Thu night and Friday night before rebounding to the mid
to upper 40s Saturday night.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 18z...VFR conditions and light winds will continue
through this afternoon and tonight as high pressure moves
overhead, then offshore late. Southerly winds developing above
the surface will begin to bring in atlantic moisture in the form
of stratocumulus clouds with bases 3500-4000 feet agl Tuesday
morning between 14-16z.

Extended outlook... MVFR conditions may develop in low clouds
and light rain Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, then
MVFR to ifr conditions are possible late Friday into Saturday
in low clouds and rain.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1020 am Monday... High pressure across the carolinas will
maintain northerly flow across the waters, generally around
15 knots or less. The flow will turn northeasterly during the
day and diminish as the pressure gradient weakens across the
coastal waters. The center of high pressure will move east of
the outer banks tonight allowing the wind to further veer to
an easterly direction. A weak coastal trough is expected to
develop late, which would prevent complete return flow from
developing west of the gulf stream.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 am Monday... Will see a roller coaster ride with
respect to the wind direction fcst Tue into early wed. This a
result of an inverted sfc trof aka coastal front, that develops
parallel to the ilm CWA coastline and tries to push partially
onshore. The sfc pg thru early Wed will be on the somewhat
relaxed side with 10 to occasional 15 kt wind speeds possible.

A cold front pushes off the coast and stalls well offshore,
again parallel to the ilm CWA coast during wed. This front is
pulled back toward the west Wed night but remains east of the
local waters. With the sfc pg tightening especially late wed
and Wed night, NE winds 10-15 kt will increase to 15 to 20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt possible Wed night as a sfc low develops
along the stalled front offshore. Significant seas Tue into tue
night will run 2 to 3 ft with possible 4 footers. By late wed
and Wed night, sig. Seas will build to 3 to 5 ft thruout with 6
footers remaining possible. At least scec thresholds will be
met with SCA conditions still a possibility Wed night.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... N to NE winds INVOF 15 kt are expected
through much of the period though a peak of 15 to 20 kt is
possible Thu night into Friday. On the open waters, seas of 3 to
5 feet are expected through the period. Depending on low
pressure development off the SE u.S. Coast, conditions in this
period could be hazardous and it is possible that winds and seas
could exceed thresholds for small craft advisories, 25 kt winds
and or seas of 6 ft, during this period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Jdw
short term... Dch
long term... Ran
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 10 mi80 min N 5.8 G 9.7 52°F 61°F1025 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi40 min 1024.2 hPa
41108 34 mi28 min 62°F2 ft
WLON7 39 mi40 min 61°F 59°F1024.3 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 42 mi103 min NNE 1.9 55°F 1025 hPa34°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi40 min NNW 8.9 G 11 53°F 62°F1024.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 48 mi29 min 64°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi80 min N 9.7 G 16 50°F 64°F1024.8 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi35 minN 810.00 miFair57°F28°F34%1024.7 hPa
Whiteville, Columbus County Municipal Airport, NC24 mi43 minNE 410.00 miFair55°F26°F33%1024.7 hPa

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Last 24hrNW12
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NW7NW3N3CalmN3CalmCalmN3N5N5CalmCalmCalmN4CalmN4N5NE8N11NE8N8
1 day agoS7S7S7S11S11SW12
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2 days agoNE5CalmS5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE33SE5S9SE9S8

Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina
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Sunset Beach Bridge
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Mon -- 02:59 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:53 AM EST     5.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:35 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:03 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:02 PM EST     4.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.20.50.30.61.62.94.25.15.45.14.33.22.11.10.40.412.13.34.14.54.33.6

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, north end, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:41 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:51 AM EST     5.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:17 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:03 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:57 PM EST     4.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.10.40.30.92.23.54.55.25.45.14.33.2210.50.61.52.73.74.34.64.33.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.