Friday, March24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:32PM Friday March 24, 2017 9:47 PM EDT (01:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:00AMMoonset 3:05PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 302 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...then 3 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt...becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 302 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will settle over the western atlantic during the weekend. A weak cold front will approach the waters on Monday and Tuesday...moving across the waters on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Shores, NC
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location: 33.95, -78.59     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 242343
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
743 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

High pressure will control the weather through most of the
period with temperatures mostly above seasonal averages. There
will be a risk for mainly afternoon showers and possibly
thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday ahead of a cold front on
Wednesday and then on Friday in association with a warm front.

Near term /through Saturday/
As of 230 pm Friday... Surface winds have turned southerly today,
allowing a modest warm-advective regime to set up. Temperatures have
risen just up above normal with most places seeing a degree or two
either side of 70. As expected, some afternoon CU has formed with
some low layer moisture advection off of the ocean. However, with no
triggers and an otherwise dry column expect another day of no rain.

For tonight a light southerly flow will continue with high pressure
settling in over the western atlantic. Lows will be right around 50
for most locations.

Saturday may dawn with some stratus and patchy fog in place.

Increasing mositure advection and afternoon heating will likely make
for a more extensive CU field even as the stratus breaks up. In
addition, a cirrus shield will gradually thicken as an upper trough
deepens over the mississippi river valley. Temperatures in the mid
70s will otherwise make for a pleasant day as the warm southerly
flow continues.

Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/
As of 230 pm Friday... The latter part of the weekend into early
next week will feature a slowly evolving pattern as mid level
high pressure hangs on to the southeast and low pressure wobbles
through the mississippi valley. Surface high pressure will be
weakening slowly as the mid level low has an attendant front or
more like a trough moving across the southeast with a weakening
band of showers and possibly thunder. I did maintain the low
chance pops for Sunday although I wouldn't be surprised to see
the activity remain to the west with the waning forcing and
persistence of high pressure. Highs should be well into the 70s
Sunday despite a lot of cloud cover with lows both Sunday and
Monday well into the 50s.

Long term /Monday through Friday/
As of 324 am Friday... A very mild week on tap with a series of
southern stream short- waves providing a chance of rain Monday
into Tuesday and again late in the week. Maximums this week each
day will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s, and generally
warmer inland away from the cooling effects of the ocean as a
robust sea breeze looks in the making each afternoon. Cross
sectional analysis and instability parameters suggest a slight
chance of a TSTM late Monday through Tuesday. Low level and
moist southerly wind flow will prevail this period, with a brief
and weak back-door frontal intrusion early Thursday will little
consequence except to lighten winds for a small time before
another southern stream system approaches, followed by a rain
potential on Friday.

Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/
As of 00z...VFR is expected at all the terminals, although a
period of MVFR br is possible 09-12z at klbt and there may also
be brief br at kflo overnight. For kilm, kmyr and kcre, marine
stratocumulus, 3-5 kft should advect onshore tonight, but
perhaps not enough to include a ceiling. Any residual cumulus
for kflo and klbt will quickly dissipate early this eve.

Increasing low-level moisture may lead to some MVFR br at klbt
and kflo around sunrise. Then on sat, we expect scattered to
broken cumulus and stratocumulus, 3500 to 5000 ft, to develop
for the inland terminals while more or less persisting for the
coastal terminals. There will be a tendency for the lower clouds
to erode in the wake of the stabilizing seabreeze, especially
at kcre and kmyr mid and late afternoon. Can not rule out a spot
shower as was the case this afternoon, but too remote a
possibility to be included in any taf.

Extended outlook... Flight category restrictions are possible in
stratus/fog during the early morning hours Sun and in isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through tue.

Near term /through Saturday/...

as of 230 pm Friday... A light southerly flow of right around 10
kts will continue through the near term as high pressure
settles over the western atlantic. Seas will remain in their
present 2 to 3 ft range through the period.

Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/...

as of 230 pm Friday... Essentially a summer like pattern across the
coastal waters through the period. High pressure well offshore will
dictate conditions and this should yield a southeast flow around ten
knots. There could be some acceleration in the vicinity of the sea
breeze per usual. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...

as of 324 am Friday... Summer like pattern continues as s-sw
winds prevail 10-15 kt. A SE swell will keep seas slightly
elevated, but dominant periods of around 10 seconds will not
make wave particularly steep. Late Tuesday into early Wednesday
a few tstms can be expected as a low pressure system passes
north of the area. Wednesday may see a few storms linger over
the gulf stream waters.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rek
short term... Shk
long term... Mjc
aviation... Rjd

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 9 mi78 min 2 ft
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi48 min 1028.3 hPa (-0.6)
41108 34 mi31 min 58°F3 ft
WLON7 39 mi48 min 61°F 56°F1028.8 hPa (+0.0)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 42 mi63 min WSW 1.9 59°F 1028 hPa56°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi48 min S 5.1 G 6 59°F 58°F1028.1 hPa (-0.4)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 48 mi49 min 58°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi40 min S 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 58°F1029.1 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi55 minSE 610.00 miFair61°F53°F75%1028.9 hPa
Whiteville, Columbus County Municipal Airport, NC24 mi68 minS 410.00 miFair63°F49°F62%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE8E11
1 day agoE12E12NE13NE11NE8NE7NE7NE6N6N7NE8NE13NE13
2 days agoSW10SW11SW12SW10NW93CalmSW3SW4W3W4N11N10

Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina
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Sunset Beach Bridge
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Fri -- 12:01 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:31 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:03 PM EDT     4.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, north end, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
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Fri -- 04:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:44 AM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:19 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:00 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.