Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 1:56 AM EDT (05:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:17AMMoonset 11:01PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 919 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 ft. Isolated showers late this evening, then showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 919 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high will maintain moderate southerly winds tonight, increasing Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will likely stall south of the area Wednesday through Thursday, then returning north this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Shores, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.95, -78.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 170525
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
125 am edt Tue jul 17 2018

Synopsis
Moisture will continue to increase ahead of a cold front that
will arrive Tuesday night. After a break in the showers around
Thursday, the front and its moisture will return on Friday and
linger over the weekend.

Near term through today
As of 930 pm Monday... One cluster of thunderstorms that has
recently developed across western williamsburg county apparently
didn't get the memo that it was supposed to wait a few more
hours. The latest hrrr shows some showers developing across
this area but not until 03z 11 pm edt. Convection is still
anticipated to be most numerous near the coast and offshore
overnight, following better low-level instability near the
85-degree ocean water. Forecast pops through 12z 800 am edt
range from 20-30 percent along the i-95 corridor to 50-70
percent along the coast, highest in the myrtle beach to cape
fear bald head island corridor and offshore.

Severe weather is not expected overnight, but locally heavy
rainfall could certainly develop given increasing precipitable
water values, slow cell motion, and nearly 13,000 feet between
the LFC and the freezing level supporting efficient warm-cloud
coalescence processes.

Discussion from 700 pm follows...

changes with the near-term portion of the forecast are
primarily concerned with pushing back the beginning of pops by
several hours based on latest radar and hrrr GFS model trends.

It still appears reasonable for showers to begin blossoming
along the sc coast and just offshore around midnight, spreading
northeastward toward CAPE fear before daybreak. Weak lapse rates
and a dry mid-level airmass are currently impediments to
convection, however as southwesterly 850-500 mb winds increase
overnight moisture should increase from the west where
precipitable water values are near 2.2 inches across western
south carolina.

Interior portions of the eastern carolinas don't appear quite
as likely to receive measurable rain overnight due to relatively
stable thermodynamic conditions and i've trimmed pops back to
20-30 percent here. No changes have been made to overnight low
temp forecasts, still anticipated to reach the lower to mid
70s. -tra
discussion from 300 pm follows...

there will be decent mid to upper level support and moisture
returning as a shortwave rotates through the southeast, over our
local forecast area tonight and deep SW flow develops. The
convection upstream this afternoon, as seen by radar, has been
enhanced by shortwave and deeper level moisture. Expect this to
reach into our area through this evening and into tonight.

Clouds have kept heating slightly moderated so far today with
temps reaching into the 80s and the best shortwave energy has
been delayed keeping a very moist column tonight with smaller
cape values showing mainly elevated instability and still some
warmer air in the mid levels, but heading into tues morning,
instability will increase with a deep SW flow and pcp water
values up near 2.3 inches. Convection will be especially
enhanced over the nocturnally favored adjacent waters overnight
as the shortwave energy rotates around from the s-sw. Therefore
kept best chc of pcp along the coast overnight into early tues.

The intensity of convection should diminish some as heating of
the day cuts off, but expect clouds and pcp through the period.

Wpc shows a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the
eastern carolinas with a slight risk right along the tip of cape
fear and just north.

The column dries somewhat through tues aftn as flow veers to
the w-ne as shortwave reaches the coast, but still shows 1.9
inches of pcp water. May see a lull in convection at this time,
but kicks back up again later tues ahead of an approaching cold
front. Overall, expect clouds and increased chc of pcp through
much of the period. Winds will remain light through much of
tonight, but will increase out of the SW on tues as gradient
tightens between bermuda high to the east and approaching cold
front. Expect some stronger storms possible as moisture pools
and heights fall ahead of cold front through later on tues.

Clouds and pcp will moderate the temps through the period, but
overall expect a humid air mass in place through the period with
less of a diurnal swing with overnight lows in the 70s and mid
80s to around 90 for highs on tues.

Short term tonight through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm... Moisture will surge ahead of a mid-level trough
and cold front that will approach the forecast area Tuesday
night. A deep layer of synoptic lift ahead of the front, along
with precipitable water values of up to 2.3 inches will lead to
numerous showers with potential for thunder Tuesday night. Wpc
has drawn a slight risk of excessive rainfall across the cape
fear region, and a marginal risk elsewhere across the forecast
area, through the Tuesday night time frame.

The front will make it into the northwestern tier of the CWA by 12z
Wednesday, then slowly make its way through williamsburg and
georgetown counties Wednesday evening. Cloud cover Wednesday will
limit instability to a point, however areal coverage of showers and
thunderstorms should increase with daytime heating. Pops will
decrease Wednesday night as significant drying occurs in the 700-300
mb layer.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... Frontal moisture sinks far enough south and
east that most of the area may see a break in the otherwise rain-
laden week. Some light rain could linger near the coast due to its
proximity to the stalled front. Mid level trough in the great lakes
starts reloading on Friday and the front and its associated
moisture rain should return (quite heavily according to the ecmwf,
more tempered and only coastal according to gfs-the former now the
favored solution). The confluent digging nature of this upper wave
will keep us in the deep moisture as well as the warm sector of the
surface system. Rain chances will persist as will the chance for
some appreciable rainfall amounts. Despite the extensive cloud cover
for most of the period temperature guidance is showing temperature
deviations from climatology as being minimal.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 06z... Increased convection will be the theme for the
aviation community through the period. Intervals of showers and
thunderstorms will move and or develop across all sites through
the period. As usual, confidence is not quite high enough to
address with prevailing groups but the more favored times seem
to be around 15 utc along the coast later this afternoon inland.

Overall forecast hasVFR conditions but there will certainly be
short bursts of MVFR and even ifr conditions with the heavier
activity.

Extended outlook... Occasional MVFR to ifr conditions due to
scattered to numerous showers and tstms.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 930 pm Monday... No significant changes are needed to wind
or wave forecasts overnight. I anticipate scattered showers and
a few t-storms to develop near the south carolina coast in the
next several hours, spreading northeastward toward CAPE fear
before daybreak Tuesday. -tra
discussion from 300 pm follows...

quiet conditions continue across the coastal waters with winds
under 10 kts and seas under 3 ft. Although somewhat variable
winds right now, a southerly flow will develop and increase
through Tuesday as gradient tightens between bermuda high to the
east and approaching cold front from the nw. Expect S to sw
winds 10 to 15 kts by early tues and increasing to 10 to 20 kts
through tues aftn. This will push seas up from less than 3 ft
through much of tonight to 3 to 5 ft by tues aftn seas with some
6 fters possible by the end of this period. Shorter period wind
waves will begin to mask a longer period fading swell.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 pm... Southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front Tuesday
night will reach 15-20 knots, then diminish Wednesday as the
boundary moves across the waters. Seas are expected to remain in
a solid 3-5 ft range Tuesday night, with some 6 ft seas not out
of the question around frying pan shoals and the outer waters
from CAPE fear northward Tuesday evening.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of
the front, which will slowly make its way south of the south santee
Wednesday night. A postfrontal northeast surge of 15-20 knots will
occur Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... No significant increase in wind or waves
through the period and we shall stay below advisory or headlines
criteria. There is still some uncertainty however regarding
wind direction. The period will start with a front to our south;
one that is eventually slated to return northward. As this
happens the flow will veer from easterly. The current forecast
has this happening a bit slower than previously with the veering
not happening until Thursday night into Friday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... mbb
near term... Tra
short term... Crm
long term... mbb
aviation... Shk
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 9 mi116 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 10 mi48 min SW 16 G 21 82°F 84°F1016.2 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi38 min 1019.9 hPa
41108 34 mi26 min 83°F2 ft
WLON7 39 mi38 min 78°F 85°F1016.6 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi38 min SW 4.1 G 6 81°F 86°F1016.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 48 mi26 min 82°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi48 min SSW 14 G 18 82°F 83°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Last
24hr
1 day
ago
2 days
ago

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi63 minSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F82%1016.5 hPa
Whiteville, Columbus County Municipal Airport, NC24 mi86 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F71°F83%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--3S5S7S7S9S8S7S9SW11SW8S8S11SW11
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3N3NE4N54SE8SE10S8SE9
G15
SE9SE8SE7SE7S6SE6S5S5CalmCalm
2 days agoN5N5NE6N5N7NE9NE8NE6NE8NE6E6SE10SE10E8E10E10
G17
SE10SE8E5E5SE6SE44SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Sunset Beach Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:36 PM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.75.34.43.11.70.5-0.3-0.40.21.42.94.25.15.14.63.62.310.1-0.20.31.42.84.2

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, north end, South Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Dunn Sound
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:32 PM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.75.34.331.60.4-0.3-0.20.71.93.24.3554.43.42.10.90.1-00.61.93.24.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.