Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 7:55 AM   Moonset 11:18 PM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 619 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds. Sun - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds.Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Tue - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds, becoming S 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers.Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 619 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles -
southwest winds increase briefly tonight ahead of a dry cold front. Light and variable winds expected into early next week before a more prevalent southerly wind develops by Tuesday.

FXUS62 KILM 112328 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 728 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
A dry cold front will move offshore tonight, keeping the region cool and dry through Monday. Rain chances increase Tuesday and Tuesday night and remain elevated Wednesday and Thursday as several systems move across the area.

UPDATE
Only minor tweaks made to previous forecast. A mid level cloud deck continues to approach from the northwest associated with cold front. Timing the clouds have them moving across the area around midnight, which may interfere with any lingering aurora viewing for a few hours if the clouds don't scatter out as forecasted.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Dry and cool this afternoon with shallow cumulus dissipating around sunset. Shortwave and associated dry cold front will approach the area overnight. Cloud cover in the form of a mid level deck will limit falling temperatures for a brief period around midnight. Weak cold air advection behind the front should allow for overnight lows to drop again, prior to sunrise. Given the combination of clouds and advection, low temperatures tonight carry some uncertainty, but expecting most areas near the mid 50s.

High pressure settles into the region tomorrow with mostly clear skies. A few shallow cumulus may develop near the coast. Forecast highs are a degree or two above guidance given near max sun angles and weak to no advection. Highs in the low 80s to near 80.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Surface high moves overhead Sun night then shifts offshore on Mon, pushed east by shortwave 5h ridge axis crossing the forecast area.
Weak subsidence and mid-level dry air will keep rain out of the forecast through Mon evening, but aloft and at the surface moisture will start to increase ahead of the next system. Moisture around 300mb Mon morning will gradually lower during the day resulting in high cloud gradually thickening. Low level return flow, in the wake of the departing surface high, leads to increasing boundary layer moisture Mon afternoon and evening. Moisture continues to increase Mon night with the column becoming nearly saturated during the early morning hours Tue. Rain will spread from southwest to northeast as the first of several shortwaves approach. Lapse rates remain on the weak side given marginal height falls and lightning potential is very limited, mainly to offshore areas. Radiational cooling will drop temperatures below climo Sun night. Temperatures back near climo Mon and then above climo Tue night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Very moist airmass in place Tue with deep southerly flow pushing precipitable water close to 2". All the ingredients are in place for a very wet day, although strong/severe potential is much less certain. Not a lot in the way of parameters favorable for severe weather, but it is something to watch. Warm front lifts north late Tue, but dry slot arrives around the same time, limiting rain chances in the evening and bringing an end to rain Tue night.
Expected diurnal convection Wed afternoon/evening as the cold pool aloft swings through. Drier air and subsidence in the wake of the 5h trough arrives Wed night and lingers into Fri before another southern stream system brings increased rain chances late next week.
Low temperatures will remain above climo through the end of next week. Clouds and rain will keep highs below climo Tue with highs near to slightly above climo Wed-Sat.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR. Mid cloud deck approaching from the northwest associated with a cold front will move across the area overnight followed by clear skies. Relatively light winds overnight will turn west-northwesterly Sunday behind the front, generally 5-10 kts with gusts to 15 kts across southeast NC.

Extended Outlook... Widespread VFR through Monday. Flight restrictions may occur Monday night into Tuesday with the next weather system moving in. Improving conditions into Wednesday.

MARINE
Through Sunday: Light winds this evening will increase ahead of a dry cold front. SW winds up to 15 knots are expected overnight with the cold front pushing offshore early Sunday morning. A few showers are possible beyond the 0-20 nm nearshore waters. Light winds expected on Sunday as high pressure settles near the region.

Sunday night through Thursday: Light southerly winds Sun night through Mon night ramp up Tue ahead of low pressure passing to the northwest Tue night. The low drags a cold front across the waters later Wed with a secondary front reinforcing offshore flow on Thu. Highest speeds will be Tue and Tue night with solid 20 kt and higher gusts possible. Prolonged southerly flow combined with increased wind speeds will quickly build seas from 2-3 ft early next week to over 6 ft on Tue with seas over 6 ft continuing into Wed. Once offshore flow develops later Wed seas drop under 6 ft. A southerly wind wave will be dominant while a weak southeast swell will also be present.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Dunn Sound
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Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:19 AM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:40 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
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Dunn Sound, north end, South Carolina, Tide feet

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