Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kure Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:27PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:07 AM EDT (04:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 11:46PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 809 Pm Edt Sun Jun 17 2018
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of mainly afternoon showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 809 Pm Edt Sun Jun 17 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high will linger off the coast through the week. This will create steady southwest winds each day.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kure Beach, NC
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location: 33.96, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 180046
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
846 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018

Synopsis
It will be hot and uncomfortably humid for much of the week.

The most uncomfortable conditions are expected Tuesday through
Thursday when heat advisories may be required. The risk of
showers and thunderstorms will increase toward the end of the
week.

Near term through Monday
As of 9 pm Sunday... Late afternoon evening convection developed
across eastern nc and then drop south-southeast due to
northwest flow aloft. While convection to the north was
anticipated, timing was expected to be later tonight as the mid-
level disturbance moved south. This disturbance can currently
be seen in water vapor imagery moving south across central va.

It is possible this feature will still generate another round of
convection which will then move into the area overnight,
however the first batch of convection used up a lot of the
instability. SPC meso-analysis showing a lot of CIN and poor
lapse rates upstream of the forecast area. Held onto low chc
pop overnight for portions of nc but confidence in more than an
isolated shower developing overnight is on the low side. Debris
clouds and boundary layer winds from the southwest will keep
lows above climo overnight night.

Previous discussion follows:
the battle between rich low level moisture & large CAPE versus
very dry mid levels has been an interesting one to watch today.

A cluster of thunderstorms in the wilmington area earlier
dropped over half an inch of rain according to mesonet stations
in wrightsville beach and monkey junction. Dry air entrained
into the downdrafts created a divergent low-level wind that has
essentially dissipated these storms. New storms firing in the
sandhills plus the potential of isolated showers storms along
the seabreeze front necessitate 20-30 pops inland through the
early evening hours.

A hot 500 mb ridge centered over the ohio valley will move into the
southern appalachians Monday. Northerly flow around the east side of
this ridge will advect a modest upper disturbance out of virginia
into north carolina overnight. Several models including the GFS and
nam show convection igniting along this feature tonight, feeding off
a hot westerly inflow of 25c air at 925 mb originating from the
western half of south carolina this afternoon. The real question is
how much moisture will exist at 925 mb since surface parcels will be
heavily capped with CIN 75-100 j kg? Editing a NAM sounding valid at
2 am Monday over lumberton to lift from 925 mb yields 1900 j kg cape
and a -4 li, along with an equilibrium level way up at 47kft. (the
gfs is drier and produces only 600 j kg at the same time) watch for
convective initiation near the nc va border later this evening.

With the approach of the upper ridge on Monday, our 700-500 mb flow
becomes very light. Residual moisture from any overnight storms plus
the potential of an outflow boundary interacting with tomorrow's
seabreeze makes a new round of convection quite possible. While
there is still dry air aloft, pops have been raised to 40-50 percent
along a line from lumberton to whiteville to wilmington for Monday
given the anticipated low-level forcing, with lesser pops trickling
down the seabreeze line to the grand strand area. 850 mb temps
rising to +19c should allow high temps to soar into the 90s inland,
with mid 90s possible near and west of i-95. And with dewpoints 70-
73 expected, heat index values could reach 103 inland, and the upper
90s on the coast.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
As of 300 pm Sunday... Mid level ridge to our west Monday night while
a well defined piedmont trough sits in place. With such a warm
column and southwesterly surface winds low temps will only manage
to dip into the mid 70s, some 6-9 degrees above climatology. On
Tuesday the mid level ridge builds eastward, raising heights
locally. This will boost 850mb temperatures by about 2c to 20-21c
area-wide and bolster our ongoing heat wave. Guidance catching on to
the pinned nature of the sea breeze, now bringing advisory-worthy
heat to everywhere but a portion of horry and brunswick counties
where the SW flow is still onshore. Similarly, with the added heat
Tuesday night will be a steamy one; some 2-3 degrees warmer than
Monday night. There are no meaningful rainfall chances through the
period due to dry air aloft and the suppressing effects of the
ridging aloft.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Extended guidance has jogged into better
agreement (at least with the 00 utc ecmwf) that strong mid
level ridging will be suppressed to the south and west through
the period. For Wednesday, the westerly downslope flow will
allow temperatures to once again surge well into the 90s with a
possible heat advisory. The ridge begins its migration south
Thursday via what could be a MCS or two emanating from ohio
valley convection. The ridge moves to the south in earnest over
next weekend as the westerlies make a run south. Minimal pops on
Wednesday although almost never a dry forecast around here in
the summer. Pops ramp upward through the remainder of the period
with the highest values Saturday. As implied earlier,
temperatures trend downward beyond Wednesday.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
As of 00z... Good confidence convection moving s-se will decrease
to -ra, thus warranting only vcsh mention at kilm. Otherwise,
vfr and no precipitation this evening. Overnight, possible
convection will again fire and move sse with this activity
possibly affecting kilm. Models suggest however it will remain e
of kilm near the best upper support. Thus, will only mention
vcsh in kilm TAF attm.VFR overnight except for chance of MVFR
cigs coastal terminals 06-12z. Confidence on timing is low thus
will not mention in tafs. After sunrise MVFR CIGS more likely
though mid-morning with best confidence coastal terminals.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will again be possible by
mid-late morning, with best confidence kilm. Extended
outlook... PredominantlyVFR through Friday with possible short
duration MVFR ifr fog or low stratus each morning. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening.

Chances for rain increase Thursday and Friday.

Marine
Near term through Monday ...

as of 9 pm Sunday... Surface high off the nc coast will slowly
drift east-southeast overnight, maintaining southerly flow.

Gradient will gradually become more defined and wind speeds will
slowly start to increase overnight in response. Seas around 2 ft
this evening build to 2 to 3 ft overnight with seas once again
a combination of east-southeast swell and southeast wind wave.

Previous discussion follows:
high pressure off the east coast will maintain a southwesterly
wind across the carolina coastal waters through Monday. Wind
speeds should increase from 10-15 kt tonight to a solid 15 knots
with gusts over 20 knots Monday afternoon. Earlier
thunderstorms in the wrightsville beach area have dissipated,
however models hint at a line of storms potentially affecting
areas north of CAPE fear late tonight, and another round of
afternoon storms developing along the seabreeze Monday.

Spectral wave plots from the buoys indicate the dominant wave is a 4-
second wind chop, with a lesser 9-second SE swell also noted. This
setup should continue through tomorrow. Seas around 2 feet should
gradually build to 2-3 feet tonight, and then to 3 feet Monday
afternoon.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... A well defined piedmont trough will remain in
place through the period. A large area of high pressure will remain
off the coast but a ridge axis will develop into the bahamas. This
will turn winds a bit more degrees more westerly as opposed to
straight sw. Even though wind speeds will be a bit higher than the
past few days this will keep the larger waves from coming into the
20nm forecast zones though a few 4 ft waves will be observed out
near 15-20nm.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Bermuda high pressure and the piedmont trough
will keep a southwest flow in place. Wind speeds will be 10-15
knots. Some guidance is advertising a brief period or two of
northwest winds in the wake of more organized convection but this is
all but impossible to forecast this far out in time. Significant seas
will be 1-3 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement from 6 am edt Monday through Monday
evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement from 6 am edt Monday through Monday
evening for ncz106-108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Iii
short term... mbb
long term... Shk
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 17 mi37 min 80°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 17 mi59 min SSE 16 G 21 80°F 81°F1019 hPa
41108 17 mi37 min 82°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 19 mi49 min SW 9.9 G 12 80°F 83°F1020 hPa
WLON7 19 mi49 min 77°F 81°F1019.6 hPa
SSBN7 30 mi127 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi59 min WSW 16 G 21 81°F 82°F1020 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi59 min SW 18 G 23 81°F 81°F1020 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 38 mi37 min SSW 14 G 16 81°F 81°F1020.5 hPa73°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC7 mi27 minSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F74°F85%1020.3 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi14 minSW 610.00 miFair78°F73°F85%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S7S3S3CalmS3CalmS3S5S5SW5S7SW6SW7SW9SW4SW7S8SW7SW7SW6SW8SW7SW6
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E5E8E6E8SE7
G15
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2 days agoW8W6W5W6W5W5W5W6NW6NW3CalmE6NE4SE5E6E6E3E4E7E4NE3NE3CalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for Federal Point, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Federal Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:47 AM EDT     4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:26 PM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.54.64.23.32.31.20.2-0.301.12.33.13.743.93.32.31.30.5-0.10.21.12.43.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bald Head, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Bald Head
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:12 AM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:37 PM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.14.83.92.81.50.4-0.4-0.112.33.344.44.53.82.81.70.7-00.112.43.64.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.