Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kure Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:25PM Thursday March 21, 2019 7:31 AM EDT (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:18PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 527 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Shifting winds early becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain or drizzle early this morning.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 527 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure will move north of the waters this morning while a cold front moves across the waters tonight. A weak front will move across the waters Friday night. High pressure will ridge in from the northwest Saturday, and move overhead during Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kure Beach, NC
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location: 33.96, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211122
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
722 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure near the CAPE fear coast will slowly move
onshore this morning, spreading light to moderate rain mainly
across southeastern north carolina. After a few showers tonight
with the passage of a cold front dry weather will prevail Friday
through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Low pressure and a cold front will spread clouds and
rain into the carolinas late Monday into Tuesday, followed by
high pressure for Wednesday.

Near term through Friday
As of 140 am Thursday... Low pressure is nearing the CAPE fear
coast and will continue to lift northward during the day. The
bulk of the light to moderate rain will lift northward as well,
with the highest pops early this morning mainly across portions
of southeast nc. Otherwise a few areas of -dz are expected until
some drying occurs later this morning. An energetic shortwave
across western tn and northeast ms will lift north of the area
by early this afternoon while another shortwave across the
midwest results in additional PVA later today and this evening.

The secondary feature will also push a cold front through with
a shot of uvvs prior to shifting off the coast. Thus after
lowering pops later this morning will increase them again to
chance levels by later today and this evening. The h5 trough
axis will shift off the coast late tonight finally allowing for
a drier column. Favor leaning toward the cooler guidance with
highs today as a result of cloud cover, and the warmer
temperatures tonight with winds expected to remain up with
additional clouds. Expect breezy conditions Friday with a blend
of high temperatures toward the warmer guidance with cold air
advection lagging behind for another period.

Otherwise, each high tide could be problematic, especially at
the downtown ilm gauge prior to noon today and midnight tonight.

Plan on issuing another coastal flood advisory for downtown ilm
as a result.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 3 am Thursday... Period will be dominated by surface high
pressure building in from the northwest as 5h trough moves away from
the area. Dry cold front crosses the area Fri night into Sat with
cold advection dropping temperatures below climo for sat.

Precipitable water drops below 0.20 inch early in the period and
remains at or below 0.20 inch into Sun morning. Center of the high
moves overhead Sat night with light and variable winds and deep dry
air allowing for strong radiational cooling. Low temperatures sat
night will drop into the mid 30s and typical cold spots strong
radiational cooling areas have a good shot at dropping to or below
freezing.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 3 am Thursday... Broad 5h trough sets up early next week as
surface high shifts off the coast. Southern stream shortwave emerges
from the near the four corners region Sun into Sun night, then races
east mon. This wave helps develop low pressure, in the southeast,
along a cold front trailing a low in the canadian maritimes. This
complex system will likely bring showers to the southeast Mon night
which could linger into Tue (with potential for isolated
thunderstorms - although they will not be included just yet given
low confidence). High pressure will build in for the end of the
period as the mid-level trough axis moves overhead.

-high pressure will keep the region dry Sun and mon, with
increasing clouds on mon. Temperatures near climo Sun and above
climo on mon.

-best rainfall chances will be Mon night and Tue with
temperatures above climo Mon night and near climo tue.

-drier and cooler air arrives late Tue night and Wed with
rainfall ending by daybreak Wed and temperatures dropping below
climo.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 12z... .Current lifr ifr ceilings across the area will
slowly dissipate as low pressure system that moved inland in
our area overnight moves off to the north. Ceilings will improve
at flo next couple of hours, with myr cre soon after, then lbt
around 16z, and ilm by 18z. Current ifr MVFR vsbys in our area
will slowly improve next couple of hours.VFR conditions to
prevail after low cloud deck dissipates. Sct bkn clouds around
5-10 kft this evening with passage of a cold front that might
eek out some rain, though with only slight chance forecasted
have kept vcsh out of tafs for now. Winds to remain elevated
out of the west today around 10 kts with gusts in the teens,
mostly at coastal sites.

Extended outlook...VFR Friday through early next week.

Marine
As of 140 am Thursday... Low pressure is approaching the coast
near CAPE fear early this morning. A southeast fetch east of
the low has generated seas around 10 ft at the frying pan shoals
buoy and even 8 ft at the waverider 5 miles off wrightsville
beach. The sc waters have primarily experienced offshore flow on
the west side of the low. As the low moves farther inland this
morning a westerly flow will prevail. As a result, conditions
will drop below small craft thresholds across the sc waters by
around daybreak, but seas will remain up for the CAPE fear
waters through much of the day. NW to W flow will prevail Friday
with speeds 15-20 knots, highest for the offshore waters
southeast of CAPE fear. Seas could once again flirt with small
craft thresholds for that portion of the coastal waters during
Friday.

Dry cold front will move across the waters Fri night into Sat with a
bump in offshore flow likely. Gradient briefly tightens up and
speeds around 20 kt will be possible during the pre-dawn hours. Seas
will quickly subside in the offshore flow regime, dropping from 3 to
5 ft Fri night to 2 to 4 ft Sat morning. Surface high spreads over
the waters Sat into Sun with northwest winds around 10 kt sat
afternoon becoming light and variable Sat night and sun. Seas
continue falling Sat dropping under 3 ft around midday and 2 ft or
less Sat night and sun. Center of the highs shifts east of the
waters Sun night into Mon with light southerly flow gradually
increasing to 10 to 15 kt by the end of the period. Seas will slowly
build mon, reaching 2 to 3 ft by the end of the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for
ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 am edt this morning for amz254-
256.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Srp
near term... Srp
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... Vao
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 17 mi32 min 57°F6 ft
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 17 mi32 min 56°F7 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 19 mi38 min SW 19 G 23 51°F 56°F1010.8 hPa
WLON7 19 mi38 min 49°F 55°F1011.1 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi24 min WNW 16 G 23 47°F 58°F1011.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi24 min WSW 19 G 27 54°F 58°F1011.1 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 38 mi32 min SW 21 G 27 55°F 69°F1012.4 hPa (-0.5)52°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC7 mi52 minWSW 10 G 187.00 miOvercast48°F46°F94%1011.8 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi39 minSW 1110.00 miOvercast50°F46°F89%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmNE3NE6E4NE5E8SE7SE7S5S4S3CalmCalmNW4N6N6N12
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Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
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Thu -- 03:43 AM EDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:31 AM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:07 PM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:00 PM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.30.2-0.6-0.8-0.11.22.73.84.54.543.11.90.7-0.3-0.7-0.30.82.13.44.34.74.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:53 AM EDT     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:04 AM EDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:17 PM EDT     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:33 PM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.6-0.5-0.8-0.30.92.43.84.75.14.83.92.61.2-0-0.7-0.50.51.93.34.45.15.14.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.