Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kure Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:04PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 11:16 AM EST (16:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 9:54PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1009 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of today..N winds 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..E winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
AMZ200 1009 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in from the west for the remainder of the week before a storm system affects the area Friday and next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kure Beach, NC
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location: 33.96, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 121513
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1013 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will move across the carolinas today and tonight, then
offshore Thursday. Low pressure approaching from the gulf coast will
bring another significant rain event to the area Friday into Saturday
morning, with up to three inches of rain possible. High pressure
will build in from the west early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am Wednesday... Forecast on track. Just a few tweaks
to temps and dewpoints.

Previous discussion:today will once again feature plenty of
sunshine but also another cool afternoon. A low level thermal
ridge moves overhead meaning 850mb thermal advection starts
weakly warm but then turns cold. This is a moot point anyway as
high pressure building in brings such light winds that mixing
will be hard-pressed to attain 2kft. Similarly light winds will
allow for decoupling and radiational cooling tonight; nearly
maximized save for the increase in cirrus level cloud cover.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 300 am Wednesday... A pair of shortwaves, one diving SE out
of the rockies and another moving east from the baja peninsula,
will help develop yet another heavy rainstorm to the carolinas.

The two shortwaves will not phase, but the close proximity of
the two as they move across the southeast states will produce a
deep southerly moisture feed straight out of the tropics with a
visually diffluent upper level flow developing across the
carolinas late Friday. All models show precipitable water
values will climb to 1.7 to 1.9 inches Friday evening. According
to the SPC sounding climatology webpage this is among the
highest values ever seen in mid-december at chs and mhx.

At the surface, high pressure across eastern nc on Thursday
morning will move out to sea during the day. A warm front
developing across north florida should reach our beaches by
daybreak Friday and is expected to make it up to interstate 95
by noon. Model spread widens considerably during the afternoon
hours as to whether the front stalls near i-95 or continues into
the piedmont region. ECMWF ensemble members display a 15-18
degree variation for Friday's high temps at florence and
lumberton, but a much narrower spread near the coast where
consensus is higher that the warm front will move through.

Showers should develop inland before daybreak Friday, spreading
down to the coast during the morning hours. The heaviest shower
and possible thunderstorm activity should develop during the
afternoon hours up through midnight, coincident with the best
upper divergence and 295k isentropic lift 850 mb low level jet.

My Friday QPF numbers haven't changed much from yesterday's
forecast, still 1.5 to 2 inches.

I've generally followed ECMWF ensemble means for temperatures
through the period, except a little cooler for lows Thursday
night given what should be a couple good hours of radiational
cooling before clouds thicken.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 345 pm Tuesday... During Sat into sun, the upper low lifts
and will continue to carry chance pops as a result. Temps will
be on the mild side the sfc pg remains tightened, keeping winds
breezy especially during daylight. For Mon into tue, wnw to nw
flow aloft becomes better entrenched - could be the beginnings
of a change in the longwave pattern aloft. Have indicated a
decrease in MAX min temps each successive day from Sun through
tue. During this latter range, sfc high pressure will drop
southeast from canada aiding the colder trend during the 3 days
(sun through tue).

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 12z... Except for low confidence vsbys restrictions due to
patchy br this morning until 13z, there is high confidence of
vfr with increasing high clouds this TAF valid period.

Extended outlook...VFR thu. MVFR tempo ifr Fri due to rain and
isolated thunderstorms. Sat MVFR becomingVFR. SunVFR tempo MVFR
isolated showers.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1000 am Wednesday... High pressure builds in from the west
through the period shutting down wind to minimal speeds and
casting variability in their direction. Seas are still stirred
up from the slow moving early wind storm and the subsequent
pinched gradient but with both no longer a player and such light
winds they will be diminishing apace.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... High pressure across eastern north
carolina on Thursday morning will move offshore during the day.

Return flow on the backside of the high will allow a warm front
developing across north florida will move north and through the
carolina coastal waters after midnight Thursday night. Light
winds on Thursday should become easterly, then southeasterly
Thursday night with speeds increasing to 20-25 kt Friday
morning. Mariners hoping to head out Friday afternoon or Friday
night should be prepared for strong winds, large seas of 6-8
feet at 10-20 miles distance from shore, and reduced visibility
in heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 345 pm Tuesday... Expect improving wx conditions by midday
sat through Sun as the closed low lifts northeast of the area.

The sfc pg to relax ever so slightly, but will be conducive to
15 to 20 kt winds. After the occlusion pushes through early
sat, expect westerly directions veering to NW on sun.

Climate
As of 300 am Wednesday... No rain fell yesterday leaving
wilmington's annual total at 97.75 inches. Our newly-updated
forecast for Friday includes 2 inches of rain, followed by
another three-quarters of an inch on Saturday. This should be
enough to push our annual total over 100 inches! Details are
available at https: weather.Gov ilm raceto100

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... mbb rgz
short term... Tra
long term... Dch
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 17 mi46 min 55°F2 ft
41108 17 mi46 min 55°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 17 mi68 min NNE 3.9 G 7.8 46°F 55°F1024.6 hPa
WLON7 19 mi34 min 54°F 46°F1024.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 19 mi28 min NNE 5.1 G 6
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi68 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 44°F 54°F1024.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi68 min NNE 7.8 G 14 51°F 65°F1024.2 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 38 mi26 min NW 3.9 G 7.8 51°F 65°F3 ft1024.7 hPa41°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC7 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair48°F32°F54%1025.1 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi23 minVar 310.00 miFair48°F35°F61%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
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Wed -- 05:31 AM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:30 AM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:15 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:54 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:42 PM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.82.11.40.90.50.51.11.92.83.53.83.83.52.92.21.40.80.50.71.32.22.83.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:41 AM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:03 AM EST     4.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:25 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:55 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:15 PM EST     3.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.61.81.10.60.511.82.83.64.14.34.13.52.71.810.60.71.22.12.93.43.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.