Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 2:45 PM   Moonset 2:27 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1021 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Overnight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 3 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers late this evening, then a chance of showers. Sat - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 3 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Showers and tstms likely. Vsby 1 nm or less after midnight. Sun - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.Mon - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Tue - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1021 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A storm system will affect the area this weekend with an increased chance and coverage of showers and Thunderstorms. The associated cold frontal passage of the storm system will occur late in the weekend followed by a stronger push of high pressure that could require an sca Mon into Tue.

FXUS62 KILM 180552 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 152 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper low and cold front approaching from the west will bring unsettled weather through Sunday. Cooler and drier air arrives Sunday night. Later next week will feature a warmup and only a gradual increase in rain chances.

UPDATE
Widely scattered showers have developed across southeast NC. May see additional light showers develop from the southwest over the next few hours and continue through morning. 6z aviation discussion included below.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Increasing WAA/isentropic upglide will cause clouds to lower/thicken overnight. Some light rain should also spread into the area from the south and west but guidance seemed a bit fast as the lift if weak initially. This uncertainty sort of translates into tomorrow's forecast. Guidance varies considerably regarding Saturday's eventual destabilization and our severe weather potential. With both a surface front and a mid level vort and possibly a convective MCV there may be enough forcing to overcome less than impressive instability. SPC continues to highlight our area for SLGT mainly for winds. Shear isn't very impressive but heavy rain and wet microbursts seem the most likely culprits.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Main upper trough axis approaches Sat night and swings through late Sunday keeping the weather quite unsettled. The same arguments above regarding good forcing but poor instability applies, though with rain somewhat widespread pockets of sunshine that were possible Sat seem unlikely Sun. Cooler and much drier air spills in from the NW Sun night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Monday's highs quite seasonable as a narrow area of high pressure builds in but dewpoints barely above 60 will give a much earlier in the Spring feel. The high moves east and upper ridging builds Tuesday and Wed allowing for a warmup. The latter part of the period will feature a bit more in the way of moisture possibly supporting isolated storms caused by mainly mesoscale processes. A cold front could lead to a more substantial rain offering on Friday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low stratus is forecasted to develop across the area over the next few hours and potentially linger through midday. Ceilings will be around 1000-2000 ft. As a warm front lifts north this morning, confidence is low in ceilings remaining steady and will likely see occasional breaks/improvements to VFR. With isentropic lift early today followed by upper shortwave this afternoon and a cold frontal passage tonight, looking at an unsettled TAF period. Have VCSH or -SHRA for majority of the forecast beginning during pre-dawn hours and continuing through 6z tonight - TAF locations will have more dry time than wet overall. Best chance for thunder looks to be between 18z and 23z, though may be isolated lightning this morning and after 0z this evening. Chance for isolated severe weather today, primarily in the form of strong gusts. Fog may begin to develop inland in the last couple hours of the TAF period tonight behind the cold front.

Extended Outlook...The next storm system and associated periodic flight restrictions will continue to affect the area Sat night into Mon. VFR to mainly dominate Tue thru Wed while an upper low remains just off the SE States Coast.

MARINE
Through Saturday... Light S to SE winds tonight with about a category of speed increase on Saturday as a front approaches.
The sea state will be comprised predominantly of wind waves with no appreciable swell, so we should add a foot to the upper range on Saturday, 2 ft opening up to 2-3.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Pre-frontal flow regime will see increase wind speeds as a front approaches Saturday night.
A fairly sharp wind shift to northerly occurs with FROPA Sunday making for choppy, short period seas. High pressure keeps a northerly component on Monday with abating gradient/seas. Light NE winds Tuesday less from the high and moreso from a weak offshore low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Federal Point, Cape Fear River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Bald Head
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:53 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:16 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:38 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:42 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bald Head, Cape Fear River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Wilmington, NC,