Wednesday, March22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:26PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 8:30 PM EDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 2:31AMMoonset 1:09PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 309 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt late this evening and early morning...then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 309 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will build southward into the mid-atlantic states through Thursday, then will move offshore for the weekend. A weak cold front will approach the waters on Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221920
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
320 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Synopsis
Freezing temperatures possible over a portion of the area
tonight as cold canadian high pressure builds into the
carolinas. As this high moves more offshore Friday into the
weekend, a warm-up will ensue. Minor rain chances are expected
Sunday as a weak upper disturbance passes well to our north.

Near term /through Thursday/
As of 300 pm Wednesday... A broken layer of post-frontal strato-
cu blanketing the CAPE fear region this afternoon will continue
to break up and scatter out as we head into the evening hours.

Model soundings show very dry air at all levels moving in from
this evening into Thursday as a deep-layer NW flow takes hold.

At the surface a cold and dry high will drop SE across the
eastern carolinas through the near term as ridging builds aloft.

Breezy and gusty winds will continue into the evening hours as
the cold surge barrels down from the north.

Considering how poorly guidance has performed recently, see the main
forecast challenge for this period will be overnight temperatures.

Considering past performance, have stayed on the low side of
guidance and thus have raised a freeze warning for all our nc
counties excluding the beach forecast zones. Our sc counties will be
mainly in the mid 30s, with upper 30s at the beaches.

Thursday will be dry and unseasonably cool as the arctic airmass
moves overhead. Expect highs only in the mid to upper 50s.

Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Cold canadian high pressure will move
eastward shifting from the mid atlantic coast farther off shore
through fri. This will allow a return flow to set up with
increasing moisture and warmth. Initially, though, the dense
shallow cold air mass in place will set the stage for very cold
temps once again thurs night. Models are showing a coastal
trough becoming more defined overnight Fri as high pressure
wedges in over inland areas with lighter NE winds while just off
shore a more easterly wind develops pushing moisture on shore.

Most places should be a few degrees warmer than previous
night..Mid 30s for the low, but would expect some traditionally
cooler spots to drop toward freezing. The moisture return will
bring rh values above 80% overnight thurs and this will allow
some frost to develop under decent radiational cooling
conditions as skies remain mainly clear and winds drop off thurs
eve. Upon the expiration of the freeze warning for tonight,
there will be an evaluation as to which counties would need an
frost advisory or possibly another freeze warning. The most
likely candidates would be pender and bladen counties, but
other spots mainly across nc could surely see frost if forecast
remains on track.

As high pressure shifts farther off the mid atlantic coast on
Friday, a southeasterly return flow will bring warmer and
moister air into the area while a deeper SW to W flow will
develop aloft. Mid to upper ridge will build up the southeast
coast with heights rising and 850 temps return up near 7c fri
aftn. This will push temps back up toward normal... Closer to 70
most places. The on shore flow will keep places closer to the
cooler waters in the 60s. There may be some clouds around, but
pcp will remain at bay through the period and overall there will
be a good deal of march sunshine. Temps on Fri night will remain
at or above normal.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
As of 300 am Wednesday... Return flow underway on Saturday expected
to bring unseasonable warmth. Upper ridge axis should stay close
enough to the coast to keep mid levels fairly dry. This changes
fairly quickly Saturday night into Sunday and moisture depth may
increase. Two large shortwaves try to impinge upon our upper ridge
but appear to largely be shunted over it to the north. It appears
that late period moisture depth may actually decrease. So while some
minor late weekend rain chances may materialized they should dwindle
heading into next week. Daytime highs will remain above climo,
generally in the mid to upper 70s but trending towards 80 inland
late in the period. Nighttime lows will similarly be mild, and the
deviations from climo will tend to mirror the degree of cloud cover.

Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/
As of 18z... High confidenceVFR through the TAF valid period.

Main concern would be gusts from N to nne winds this afternoon
and evening, which could approach 25 kts at times. Ilm and cre
will see broken CIGS at around 3.5 to 4.0 kft through the
afternoon hours.

Extended outlook...VFR.

Marine
Near term /through Thursday/...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Small craft advisory will remain in
effect from this afternoon and into Thursday as a cold and dry
high pressure system drops in from the nw. Conditions will begin
to moderate Thursday afternoon and the ridge axis moves
overhead. Expect NE winds of 20 to 25 kts tonight diminishing to
15 to 20 kts on Thursday as seas drop from 4 to 6 ft tonight to
3 to 5 ft on Thursday.

Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure will shift farther off
the mid atlantic coast through the period. This will allow a
return flow to set up with winds shifting around from NE thurs
evening to e-se through Fri and southerly by Sat morning. The
models are hinting at a coastal trough overnight thurs which
may act to produce enhance a more NE flow near the coast with a
greater easterly flow off shore. Either way, an on shore flow
will be the rule through much of the period diminishing to 10
kts or less. This will allow seas to subside from near 3 to 4 ft
thurs eve down to 3 ft or less Fri morning.

Long term /Saturday through Sunday/...

as of 300 am Wednesday... The above normal temperatures will give a
clue as to expected marine conditions. That is, the area will be in
a return flow regime around sprawling atlantic high pressure. Wind
will thus be southerly and for the most part be capped at 10 kt
though a few higher gusts certainly hard to rule out. A minor
increase in the long shore swell energy could make for an increased
presence of 4 ft seas along the outer portions later Sunday in an
otherwise 2 to 3 ft wave environment.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Freeze warning from 4 am to 9 am edt Thursday for ncz087-096-
099-105-107-109.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Near term... Rek
short term... Rgz
long term... mbb
aviation... Rek


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 14 mi120 min 2 ft
41108 21 mi43 min 57°F4 ft
WLON7 25 mi42 min 54°F 56°F1024 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 26 mi105 min E 8 56°F 1021 hPa47°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi42 min ENE 23 G 26 53°F 58°F1023.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi61 min 57°F6 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi82 min E 18 G 31 55°F 57°F1023.3 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi42 min 1022.7 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi30 min NE 21 G 25 59°F 65°F1023.3 hPa (+3.1)47°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi82 min E 21 G 31 55°F 64°F1022.2 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi30 minE 7 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F44°F70%1024 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW5S4SW5SW7W15
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E4CalmCalmW3W5NW7N12
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1 day agoSW4SW3SW3SW4SW4SW5SW4SW5SW6SW4SW6SW8SW11
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2 days agoNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5NE5N6CalmS7S8S7S6SW7SW8S6SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
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Wed -- 03:19 AM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:01 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:44 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:08 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.82.83.74.143.52.71.91.10.50.20.51.122.93.43.53.22.61.810.3-00.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:12 AM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:45 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:26 PM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:03 PM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.62.33.13.84.243.52.82.11.410.91.21.82.63.23.73.63.32.721.40.90.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.