Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:06PM Monday November 20, 2017 10:35 AM EST (15:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:31AMMoonset 7:02PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 929 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Rest of today..N winds 15 kt, becoming ne 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft...except 1 to 2 ft near shore.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Tue night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
AMZ200 929 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will migrate across the waters this afternoon and move offshore on Tuesday. A weak low pressure system will move near the coast Wednesday, followed by a cold front pushing offshore. Another area of low pressure may move up the coast late week into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201523
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1023 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail through tonight. A weak trough will
develop just off the coast and a cold front will approach from the
northwest Tuesday. The front will pass off the coast early Wednesday
followed by an area of weak high pressure. Low pressure with origins
over the eastern gulf of mexico may bring rain to the area Wednesday
night through thanksgiving day. The low will accelerate northeast
away from the region by Friday with high pressure expected by the
weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1020 am Monday... Dry surface high pressure is in place across
the carolinas this morning. In addition, water vapor imagery shows a
large swath of dry air aloft, resulting a precipitable water less
than 0.2 inches as noted in adjacent 1200 utc raobs. Low-level
thickness scheme with full insolation yields high temperatures in
the upper 50s to around 60. Radiational cooling should be optimum
under clear skies and calm winds this evening; however, moisture is
shown to increase from the gulf coast in the 500-300 mb layer which
could limit radiational cooling late. For now plan to remain cooler
than mav guidance for lows tonight.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 300 am Monday... Tuesday is shaping up to be okay during the
daytime with some clouds increasing with mild moist air overriding
the cool dome of air across the ilm cwa. The dividing line is an
inverted sfc trof that develops and lies across the atlantic waters
parallel to the ilm CWA coast. Models to some degree push this sfc
inverted trof onshore and inland. However, i'm not entirely bought
on the push well inland. I could see the trof moving just onshore
but this is not the normal setup for the aka coastal trof to push
well inland let alone onshore. As a result, will indicate the temp
fcst with regard to just an onshore push. As for pcpn, have also
knocked down pops to a degree with a decent gradient from low chance
well inland to good chance or possibly likely along the immediate
coast and adjacent atl waters. The overall instigator for pcpn
across the fa is mid-level shortwave trofs that push off the mexican
and southern texas coasts respectively and into the gulf of mexico
where it picks up moisture before crossing central florida during
Tuesday. The shortwaves then accelerate northeastward Tuesday night
along the coastal trof and by Wednesday daybreak they are off cape
hatteras. This will supply additional dynamics other than the weak
overrunning pcpn already in place by the time it's affects commence.

With stratiform type rains fcst west of the coastal trof, QPF will
be on the low side with the highest occurring in the vicinity and
east of the coastal trof where isolated heavier showers with
possible thunder to occur. Have lowered temps for Tue from the
previous fcst due to betting on the coastal trof not pushing well
inland.

For Wednesday... A cold front will push across first thing in the
morning, helping to drive what's left of clouds and pcpn further
offshore. The front will stall well offshore but extend back inland
across florida. We then do it all over again, with overrunning type
clouds late Wed thru Wed night with stratiform rains breaking out
late in this time period, with the hier pops along the immediate
coast and southernmost portions. Atl waters. Other than weak
embedded southern stream S W trofs, a rather decent northern stream
5h S W trof dives southeastward from the upper midwest and by early
thu, models indicate it may close off over ga. This may draw back
westward the stalled offshore front but still remaining offshore. A
pop gradient will again occur across the area late Wed night into
thu, with lowest well inland and hiest along and east of the ilm cwa
coast. Enhancement to the QPF will come from weak embedded mid-
level southern stream S W trofs engaged with the stalled offshore
front. The main QPF enhancement and hier pops will come from the
northern stream S W trof and possible sfc low development on the
stalled front offshore late in this period. For Wednesday temps,
stayed on the lower side of MOS guidance due to clouds and pcpn
threat via the gfs, whereas the much drier european model this time
frame has Wed MAX temps approaching 70 across portions of the fa.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Saturday... Lingering rain is possible early
Wednesday as an upper trough moves out and a cold front moves
out to sea. Another short wave trough could spawn low pressure
development along the old front off the southeast u.S. Coast.

This will bring another chance of rain to the area Wednesday
night into Friday, though the exact details of this scenario are
still in doubt. Dry weather is expected for the remainder of
the long term but light showers are possible with another
frontal passage and vigorous upper trough on Sunday.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals of mid 60s wed
before falling back into the mid to upper 50s for Thu and fri.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Sat and Sun with highs
in lower 60s. Mins temperatures Wednesday night will fall to
the upper 30s to lower 40s with higher numbers SE and along the
immediate coast. Temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 are
expected Thu night and Friday night before rebounding to the mid
to upper 40s Saturday night.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 12z...VFR conditions will continue today as high pressure
approaches from the west. The high will move overhead this
evening, then off the coast late tonight. A minority of the
computer models we review show the potential for low stratus
clouds (bases 1000-2000 feet agl) to roll in off the ocean after
06z Tuesday morning. This appears too fast, and we will continue
to forecast only high cirrus clouds through 12z Tuesday.

Extended outlook... MVFR conditions may develop in low clouds
and light rain Tuesday through Wednesday morning, then MVFR to
ifr conditions are possible Thursday night into Friday in low
clouds, rain, and fog.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1020 am Monday... High pressure across the carolinas will
maintain northerly flow across the waters, generally around
15 knots or less. The flow will turn northeasterly during the
day and diminish as the pressure gradient weakens across the
coastal waters. The center of high pressure will move east of
the outer banks tonight allowing the wind to further veer to
an easterly direction. A weak coastal trough is expected to
develop late, which would prevent complete return flow from
developing west of the gulf stream.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 am Monday... Will see a roller coaster ride with
respect to the wind direction fcst Tue into early wed. This a
result of an inverted sfc trof aka coastal front, that develops
parallel to the ilm CWA coastline and tries to push partially
onshore. The sfc pg thru early Wed will be on the somewhat
relaxed side with 10 to occasional 15 kt wind speeds possible.

A cold front pushes off the coast and stalls well offshore,
again parallel to the ilm CWA coast during wed. This front is
pulled back toward the west Wed night but remains east of the
local waters. With the sfc pg tightening especially late wed
and Wed night, NE winds 10-15 kt will increase to 15 to 20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt possible Wed night as a sfc low develops
along the stalled front offshore. Significant seas Tue into tue
night will run 2 to 3 ft with possible 4 footers. By late wed
and Wed night, sig. Seas will build to 3 to 5 ft thruout with 6
footers remaining possible. Atleast scec thresholds will be met
with SCA conditions still a possibility Wed night.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... N to NE winds INVOF 15 kt are expected
through much of the period though a peak of 15 to 20 kt is
possible Thu night into Friday. On the open waters, seas of 3 to
5 feet are expected through the period. Depending on low
pressure development off the SE u.S. Coast, conditions in this
period could be hazardous and it is possible that winds and seas
could exceed thresholds for small craft advisories, 25 kt winds
and or seas of 6 ft, during this period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Srp
short term... Dch
long term... Ran
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi87 min NE 12 G 16 48°F 61°F1024.5 hPa
41108 21 mi35 min 62°F3 ft
WLON7 25 mi47 min 52°F 59°F1025 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 26 mi110 min N 1.9 46°F 1024 hPa34°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi47 min N 8 G 14 47°F 62°F1025.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi36 min 64°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi87 min N 12 G 18 48°F 64°F1024.3 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi47 min 1024.4 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi35 min N 14 G 18 53°F 70°F1024.3 hPa (+2.1)40°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi87 min N 16 G 23 51°F 68°F1024.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi50 minN 1110.00 miFair48°F28°F47%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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NW3CalmCalmCalmN6N3N4N6N4CalmN3N4N4N3N3N5N7
1 day agoSE4S5S6S4S4S4S5S4SW7SW8SW7
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2 days agoN12NE9
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N7N4N4NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
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Mon -- 01:48 AM EST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM EST     4.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:30 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:01 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:14 PM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-0.3-0.5-00.92.23.64.64.94.63.72.51.30.3-0.3-0.30.31.32.53.543.83.12.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:58 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:02 AM EST     5.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:34 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:02 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:11 PM EST     4.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.30.60.30.71.52.844.95.354.33.32.11.10.50.51.123.13.94.34.23.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.