Tuesday, May30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:19PM Tuesday May 30, 2017 5:17 AM EDT (09:17 UTC) Moonrise 10:10AMMoonset 11:57PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 427 Am Edt Tue May 30 2017
Today..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Isolated showers and tstms this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 427 Am Edt Tue May 30 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will approach from the north Tuesday night and then stall through much of the week...maintaining the threat for showers and Thunderstorms each day. SW winds will prevail through much of the week as high pressure off the se u.s. Coast continues its foothold across the area waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 300739
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
339 am edt Tue may 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will move farther away from the
carolinas today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue today and Wednesday as a weak cold front approaches
from the north. This front should stall nearby early Thursday.

High pressure moving off the mid-atlantic coast will lift the
front back to the north late Thursday.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Tuesday... Active night continues as a second round
of convection, this one weaker than earlier, moves SW to ne
across the cwa. Continued elevated instability noted both on spc
mesoanalysis MUCAPE fields and in latest rap soundings will
support continuing tstms for the next few hours - roughly
through daybreak. Thereafter, drying occurs quickly and
convection will wane as a weak upper impulse moves off to the
ne. Any of these storms for the next few hours could produce
gusty winds and small hail, but briefly heavy rainfall is the
primary threat. Have capped pop at mid-chc overnight but many
places may see a quick downpour.

As convection moves off to the NE and exits stage right this
morning, a break in activity is expected. Mid-level ridging across
the southeast will maintain increased thicknesses locally, while
high pressure at the surface continues to spin off the atlantic
coast. To the nw, a weak front will waver in the vicinity before
slowly pushing SW and into the CWA tonight. Capping noted on
forecast soundings combined with what should be subsidence nva
behind this mornings convection will inhibit showers and tstms
through much of the day. In a similar setup to Monday, the first
half of the day will be nicer than the second half, although mid-
level debris cloudiness may be more extensive today. Light W sw
winds and a continued warm air mass will drive temps up into the
upper 80s once again today, with the beaches several degrees cooler.

This evening and tonight, the cap will erode as a vorticity impulse
causes weak height falls and the front approaches from the nw.

Convection should trigger once again but total coverage is not
expected to be as widespread as experienced presently. 1 or 2 of the
storms which develop may produce a strong wind gust or large hail
stone, and SPC has the area in a mrgl risk for this evening.

Isolated storms may again last well beyond dark, and have left schc
pop for the eastern half of the CWA through daybreak on Wednesday.

The presence of the front and elevated instability will allow
showers and thunderstorms, however few may be around, to persist
through the overnight as mins remains warm, falling only to a degree
or two either side of 70.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 300 am Tuesday... The upper level ridge that has been just
off the southeast coast for the past several days should be
located much farther offshore by Wednesday morning. An upper
trough extending from hudson bay all the way into the deep south
should push into the eastern carolinas Wednesday night and
Thursday. The stream of moisture originating from the gulf that
has helped enhance our coverage of thunderstorms the past
several days should get nudged offshore by the advancing trough,
with a drying trend anticipated to develop.

Ahead of the upper trough on Wednesday we are still expecting
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values
of 1.6 to 1.7 inches, steep mid level lapse rates, and some
helpful upper difluence provided by the right-entrance region of
a 300 mb jet streak moving off the mid-atlantic coast all argue
for at least 30-40 pops. Bulk shear values should be lower
(25-30 knots across the 0-6 km layer) than we've seen the past
few days, so expect lesser storm organization and a
correspondingly smaller severe weather threat. The atmosphere
dries out as the upper trough arrives Wednesday night, and by
Thursday we're only including a slight chance of a seabreeze-
induced shower or t-storm in the forecast.

Models are in good agreement with temperatures through the
period and our forecast numbers are little changed from
yesterday's: mid-upper 80s away from the beaches both days with
overnight lows in the upper 60s inland to near 70 on the coast.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... An active weather pattern expected during this
period... Mainly after Thursday. Looking at the longwave pattern
aloft... The fa will remain basically under the influence of an upper
trof at the start of this period(Thursday). Models develop split
upper flow across the area by the weekend with west to NW flow from
canada associated with the longwave trof... And at the same time,
flow from the lower latitudes with some pacific and gulf of mexico
influences. With the mean trof axis remaining just west of the fa,
mid- level S W trofs from 2 different origins will be able to track
across the fa or in close proximity. Avbl moisture will not be a
problem.

At the sfc, short-lived dry high pressure from the NW will affect
the fa on thu. There-after, the high anchored well off the SE u.S.

Coast will ridge back to the u.S. With it's axis extending inland
vcnty of ga-fl, well south of the fa. A sfc cold front will drop to
the fa late Fri and likely stalling across a portion of the ilm cwa
during the upcoming weekend and into next week. Pops will be at
their lowest during Thu then ramping up slowly Fri and peaking
during the weekend into next week. Any mid-level S W trofs ie. Upper
disturbances, that affect the fa will likely be the factor that
determines whether severe thunderstorms will occur. I might be
overly optimistic in pushing the stalled front south of the fa by
mon, given the time of year. MAX temperatures will run at or
slightly hier than normal depending on cloud cover and pcpn
occurrence. Min temps will run likely 5+ degrees above normal.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 06z... Scattered showers and tstms will persist through
daybreak, but will feature a weakening and dissipating trend during
this time. All terminals have the potential to see activity through
daybreak, so have carried vcts at each one. Since the coverage is
expected to be scattered, will handle specific restrictions due to
ts with amds as necessary, as any MVFR ifr will be short lived.

Convection will end by daybreak and other than mid-level debris
cloudiness which could be extensive, drier low levels in the column
will prevent much shower or TSTM activity through the day soVFR is
expected with light W SW winds AOB 10 kts. A cold front will
approach from the NW late in the period with increasing shower
potential, but widespread or strong tstms are not forecast.

Confidence is too low in coverage and location ATTM for a taf
mention, and have just shown mid-level CIGS at the end of the period.

Extended outlook... A slowly approaching cold front will bring
chances for tstms Wednesday and Thursday.VFR Friday. Summertime
diurnal tstms possible Saturday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Tuesday... High pressure will remain the dominant
feature today creating persistent SW winds around 10 kts. A few
storms through early this morning, and again tonight, may create
temporarily dangerous marine conditions, but otherwise a placid
forecast is on tap. Winds of around 10 kts will persist through
the period, creating seas of just 2-3 ft as a SW wind wave and
low- amplitude SE swell comprise the spectrum.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night ...

as of 300 am Tuesday... High pressure well southeast of the
carolina coast will move farther offshore, exerting less
influence on our weather with time. A weak cold front situated
along the appalachian mountain chain on Wednesday will sag
southward Wednesday night and Thursday, pushed by high pressure
dropping southeastward through the midwest states. Latest models
show this front arriving along the carolina coast Thursday
morning, but almost immediately becoming overwhelmed and pushed
back inland by Thursday afternoon's seabreeze circulation. The
high that pushed the front this way should quickly move off the
virginia coast Thursday night, with light southerly winds
redeveloping across the area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday should become
isolated in coverage Wednesday night. A few showers or t-storms
could redevelop near the seabreeze front on Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... A frontal boundary at the start of thu
will waver east and south of the local waters before dissipating
altogether. High pressure having dropped in from the NW will
temporarily prevail during Thu with offshore winds backing to
the SW by the end of the day. For Fri thru sat, the high
centered well offshore from the SE u.S. Coast will be the
primary driver for winds across the local waters. With the sfc
ridge axis extending west and inland near the ga-fl coasts, wind
directions will primarily be from the sw. The sfc pg does
tighten during Fri into the upcoming weekend and could see scec
thresholds being met if this trend continues. Initially,
significant seas will be driven by both a weak NE 8+ second
period ground swell and locally produced wind waves. But by the
weekend, 3 to 6 second period wind driven waves will dominate
the seas spectrum per latest wavewatch3 and swan model data.

Could see 5 footers during the weekend, with scec type
conditions.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Jdw
short term... Tra
long term... Dch
aviation... Jdw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi70 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 77°F1016.1 hPa
SSBN7 14 mi138 min 1 ft
41108 21 mi31 min 77°F2 ft
WLON7 25 mi48 min 70°F 78°F1016.4 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 26 mi93 min Calm 72°F 1018 hPa72°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi48 min SSE 2.9 G 2.9 72°F 76°F1015 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi49 min 76°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi70 min NNE 3.9 G 7.8 74°F 76°F1016.4 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi48 min 1016.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi70 min SSW 3.9 G 7.8 76°F 77°F1015.8 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi33 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F71°F95%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W4W5NW6NW5N4N5S6S6S6SW7SW8SW9SW8SW6SW4SW3SW3SW4SW5SW6SW5SW3Calm
1 day agoSW7SW4SW4SW6SW9SW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5SW8SW8SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
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Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     -1.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:10 PM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:06 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.44.83.51.90.4-0.7-1.1-0.60.51.83.144.44.23.42.10.7-0.4-0.9-0.60.31.634.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:21 AM EDT     5.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:05 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:07 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.55.44.73.62.310-0.3-0.10.823.24.24.74.43.72.51.30.4-0.10.112.23.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.