Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 8:19 AM   Moonset 11:43 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 112340 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 740 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024


New 00Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Quiet weather continues this afternoon with just some fair weather cumulus dotting area skies. Early afternoon temperatures range from the lower to mid 60s across the NE mountains to the mid 70s across the S. A weak, reinforcing cold front will sweep into the N portion of the state this evening. There may be enough instability and forcing to squeeze out a few showers across the NE mountains.
Otherwise, another quiet night is on tap with forecast lows ranging from the mid 40s in the NE to the upper 50s across portions of the S.

High clouds will begin to increase across the area during the day Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal system moving out of the S Plains and MS Valley. High temperatures on Sunday will range from near 70 across the NE mountains to the lower 80s across the S third of the area. Some showers may arrive across the SW by late Sunday night as clouds continue to thicken and lower. /SEC

SEC

LONG TERM
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

At a glance:

-A week of unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms through the long term.

-A break in the rain is possible Wednesday and Thursday but it returns in time for the weekend.

An unsettled and messy pattern is set to dominate most of the long term. Sunday should be a pretty nice day with temps in the low 80s for most of the CWA but a trough across the southern midwest will kick off a few days of unsettled weather keeping temps on the cooler side thanks to radiation cooling. By Tuesday the front will begin to lift off to the NE and as the day heats up the GFS seems to suggest we could generate in excess of 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE in the afternoon with enough bulk shear to ensure we keep an eye on it. However, there are still a number of questions in regards to whether or not conditions will ultimately be favorable for more than a few isolated thunderstorms. The diurnal cycle, timing, and any cap that we'll need to overcome given our rain cooled environment; as some parts of our CWA could see up to two inches of rain. Tuesday may be worth keeping in the back of your mind, but as of right now we're in a "wait and see" mind set.

We get a "break" in the weather Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, although low end PoPs stick around across the northern and southern ends of the CWA before another trough takes aim at us toward the end of next week. Needless to say, we're too far out to make any kind of severe weather assessment. Right now the concern will remain on the hydro side as another good shot of rain will likely stress our already damp soils and swollen rivers.

Vaughn

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. Winds will be NW at 5-9 kts this evening, decreasing to 5 kts or less after 02-03Z, then increasing to 5-9 kts once again by 14Z on Sunday.

//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
High confidence on all elements.

King

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 53 80 56 73 / 0 0 0 50 Atlanta 56 80 60 72 / 0 0 10 70 Blairsville 46 73 51 67 / 10 0 0 60 Cartersville 51 79 56 72 / 0 0 10 70 Columbus 58 83 62 76 / 0 0 20 70 Gainesville 53 78 57 70 / 0 0 0 60 Macon 56 81 60 74 / 0 0 10 70 Rome 50 80 56 73 / 0 0 10 70 Peachtree City 54 81 58 72 / 0 0 10 70 Vidalia 59 83 63 78 / 0 0 0 60

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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